Interwoven Threads

On April 21, US Vice President JD Vance, his wife Usha Vance, and their children landed in Delhi for a four-day visit to India. The timing of JD Vance’s India visit was critical as it came amid a global trade war after the US President announced reciprocal tariffs on several countries across the globe, including India. On his first day of visit, Vance held a meeting with the Indian Prime Minister where both of them discussed ways to bolster cooperation in energy, defence, and strategic technologies. They “formally announced the finalisation of the Terms of Reference for the negotiations”. The US Vice President also urged India to buy more military hardware from the US, including the fifth-generation F-35 fighter aircraft, which, according to him, would give the Indian Air Force the ability to protect the country's citizens like never before. He underscored the deepening defence ties between the two nations with the launch of a joint Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance for maritime. His discussions with the Prime Minister centred on enhancing military collaboration, including joint production initiatives, advanced fighter jet acquisitions, and a unified approach to Indo-Pacific security.

Unfortunately, on April 22, a deadly terrorist attack on tourists in the Kashmir valley killed 26 civilians. On May 7, India launched ‘Operation Sindoor’, a counter-terror operation where India struck terror hideouts inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), to avenge the deaths of tourists. Pakistan retaliated and a four-day intense fighting between the two neighbours, possessing nuclear warheads, continued till Saturday (May 10). Both countries agreed to a US-negotiated ceasefire where, as per the media reports, JD Vance took an active role in the negotiations. At around 7.55 am Eastern Time in the United States, President Trump posted on Truth Social that India and Pakistan have agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire”. In a late-night address on Saturday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the ceasefire and thanked countries like China, the US, and Saudi Arabia for backing peace efforts. He gave special mention to China for its support. However, the Indian Prime Minister, in his televised speech on Monday, put Islamabad on notice, saying, “Every inch of land in which terror is encouraged by Pakistan is within the reach of our Armed Forces".

Absence of US Warheads in the 2025 India-Pakistan War

Unlike in the two previous wars in 1965 and 1971, Pakistan fought this war with India without direct involvement of US arms, though the use of one F16—supplied long back—has been reported. Before the 1965 outbreak of hostilities between India and Pakistan, the United States provided Pakistan with millions of dollars’ worth of equipment and services under the military grant aid. Unclassified US documents reveal that in the 1971 war, the USA also provided huge military assistance to Pakistan. India and Pakistan fought this war with arms imported from non-American firms. While India mostly relied on Russia (36 per cent), France (33 per cent), and Israel (13 per cent) for arms, Pakistan primarily trusted China (81 per cent), the Netherlands (5.5 per cent), and Turkey (3.8 per cent) for their weapons. A CNN analysis reveals, though India and Pakistan both claim victory, this latest conflict has no winners. However, according to Reuters, this conflict has offered a potentially rich intelligence harvest for China as it collects data from its fighter jets and other weapons used in action by Pakistan. This has also given an opportunity to field test China’s latest supplies of JF-17 fighter aircraft, drones, space-based support, and beyond visual range PL-15A air-to-air missile systems.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan is a strategic ally of China. Lin Jian, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, described India’s military strikes as part of Operation Sindoor on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) as regrettable. In March 1963, China received portions of POK, Gilgit, and Baltistan and incorporated large swathes of lands in Aghil, Shimshal, Ruksam, and Shaksgam, in addition to occupying 38,000 sq km of Aksai Chin. China has also built an all-weather road from Kashgar in Xinjiang to Islamabad.

In 2013, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a massive bilateral project to improve infrastructure within Pakistan for better trade with China and to further integrate the countries of South Asia, was announced by China. The project was launched on April 20, 2015, when the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif signed 51 agreements and memoranda of understanding valued at USD 46 billion. The goal of the CPEC is both to transform Pakistan’s economy by modernizing its road, rail, air, and energy transportation systems and to connect the deep-sea Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi to the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region in China and beyond by overland routes. Xinjiang borders Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and the ancient Silk Road ran through its territory. The initiative was also set to open several special economic zones (SEZs), modelled on similar zones in China that offer incentives for investment and are intended to spur rapid economic growth.

India has expressed its resentment against the CPEC as it passes through the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK). New Delhi sees this move as an infringement on “India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

China, Pakistan, and the Taliban have agreed to expand trilateral cooperation, including extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, as part of a broader strategy to reduce India’s footprint in the country.

The agreement was reached during a closed-door meeting in Kabul over the weekend, attended by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, China’s Special Envoy Yue Xiaoyong, and Pakistan’s Special Representative Mohammad Sadiq.

The revocation of Article 370 by India in August 2019 has brought China and Pakistan closer. China dubbed India’s decision to change the status quo in Kashmir as “illegal and invalid.”

"It's the economy, stupid!"

China has developed strong economic alliances with Myanmar in the India’s east and Pakistan in the west through China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is likely to be extended to Bangladesh, and the CPEC. Any war with Pakistan or Myanmar will automatically involve China, as huge investments and trades are involved around these economic corridors. Needless to say, China, being the second largest economy, now exerts huge influence on the IMF. Sanction of USD 2.4 billion loan to Pakistan, despite India’s opposition, is a case in point.

Reacting to the ceasefire, Trump said: “We helped a lot. I said c’mon, we are going to do a lot of trade with you guys. Let’s stop it. If you stop it we do trade, if you don’t stop it, we are not gonna do any trade. And all of a sudden they said ‘I think we are gonna stop’. And they have.”. Once again, the insight coined during Bill Clinton's campaign, "it's the economy, stupid!", is proving true for stopping war in South Asia. President Trump is following his wise predecessor.

The writer is a professor of Business Administration who primarily writes on political economy, global trade, and sustainable development. Views expressed are personal