Bubbles of Euphoria

On June 18, in an unprecedented move, President Donald Trump hosted a lunch for visiting Pakistani Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, at the White House. This caused visible ripples among Pakistan and US watchers, as it was an extraordinary occurrence. Unprecedented in the sense that, historically, Pakistani army chiefs, military dictators, and self-proclaimed presidents had visited the White House, but no one had been hosted for a lunch in the manner of the present case—where the hospitality was not only hyped and advertised, but its menu was also made viral. This too was glaring and unusual in the particular case of the Army Chief's visit. The Chief was so overwhelmed that he made a formal recommendation for a Nobel Peace Prize for President Trump.

Now, several opinions are emerging, analysing the fallout of the luncheon meeting. One set of strategic thinkers views this as nothing but a ‘put-on’ attempt to woo Pakistan, as the US would like to use Pakistani airspace in the ongoing war against Iran launched by the Israel–US combine, with the US stepping up its aerial warfare—as seen in the lethal bombings of June 21 targeting Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. As I write this column, Pakistan has already come under frontal verbal attack by Iran for allowing the use of its airspace.

Having Pakistan on board in this intensified aerial military campaign—and the availability of Pakistani skies—ostensibly saved the US time for effective combat. On the other hand, another set of strategists following Pakistan have called for caution, as Chinese reactions to the lunch meeting have not surfaced yet. Pakistan may have to incur the wrath of China too, for going so close to the US—and that too over lunch bonhomie, which may not be altogether palatable to Beijing.

Analysts closely watching this development also reckon that Iran would be very upset with Pakistan yielding to US pressure, especially as the Pakistani Prime Minister and Defence Minister had already assured Iran of all possible moral and logistical support in the event of military conflict. In the post-lunch scenario, any betrayal by Pakistan in militarily aligning with the US is unlikely to augur well with Iran. Another line of thought now surfacing is that, if Iran becomes hostile to Pakistan, it might extend emotional, training, and logistical support to restive Baluchistan, which is already a headache for a fragile Pakistan and a threat to its territorial integrity.

It is said of Iran that public memory is very short. Only 14 years ago, when Pervez Musharraf was at the helm in Pakistan, Osama bin Laden was neutralised by US Navy SEALs through “Operation Neptune Spear.” Notably, bin Laden—responsible for masterminding the 9/11 attacks, the deadliest terror assault on the US—was hiding in Abbottabad, a known military garrison under Musharraf’s watch. How can Trump still trust Pakistan?

Interestingly and most significantly, Trump himself had said about seven years ago that “Pakistan had given the US nothing but lies, deceit, and safe havens to terrorists.” It is also worth recalling that Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, described Pakistan as the most dangerous nation. How can such amnesia be so convenient for Trump—reposing trust in Munir, recognising him as the de facto Pakistani ruler, making Pakistan a strategic ally, and even declaring that he loves Pakistan? No wonder Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said, “We are dealing with an administration which changes its tunes by the hour.”

Such a change in tune was also noticed when President Trump personally thanked Asim Munir for arresting the perpetrator of the Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul in August 2021, when thousands of Afghans were attempting to flee the city during the Taliban takeover.

Assessing the fallout of the Trump–Munir lunch, it would appear, as recorded by Raza Ahmad Rumi, a distinguished lecturer at the City University of New York (CUNY), that “it signals quite visibly that Pakistan is not just on Washington’s radar, it is in the inner circle as of now.” Trump also thanked Munir for ending the military conflict with India.

Personally, Munir stands to capitalise on his position in the internal scheme of things in Pakistan. He has completely sidelined the civilian government, as had been the case in the past when military dictators called the shots. And with this very pronounced endorsement by Trump in inviting him for lunch, all his actions have been legitimised—even his infamous speech of April 16, when he justified the “two-nation theory” and attempted to sow seeds of communal discord through his charged rhetoric. This was followed by a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22, killing over two dozen innocents.

Mr. Trump is clearly seen to condone such acts. But more disturbingly, the blessings Munir received recently from Trump will, in all likelihood, embolden him to renew his blueprint for sponsoring terror in India.

During his five-day stay in the US, Munir also met with a number of opinion makers and think tanks, explaining Pakistan’s position vis-à-vis terror. He utilised the opportunity to enhance his image, possibly in a bid to pursue his political dreams—as done by most of his predecessors in Pakistan’s 78-year history. His meeting with Trump, with lunch thrown in, was facilitated by Pakistani-American Sajid Tarar, a well-known Trump and Republican Party supporter who has a visible Muslim lobby pandering to the political interests of Trump and his party.

During his series of meetings with the Pakistani diaspora and American think tanks, Munir also briefed them about the counter-terror measures Pakistan had undertaken—particularly Operations Marka-e-Haq and Bunyanum Marsoos. He also insinuated that India was engaging in alleged hybrid terror-centric measures targeting Pakistan.

Munir may be upbeat about his lunch with Trump and the “attention" he received, but when Trump—known for his unpredictability—starts placing tall orders for compliance, like a master to a servant, the Field Marshal of Pakistan may have to wriggle out of the predicament with huge embarrassment, both internally and from regional players like China, whose angst toward the US is well known. Munir has to walk a tightrope with a delicate balancing act. And that may be perilous to his short-lived reputation, position, and euphoria—waiting to evaporate any time now. He is under close watch by Islamic hardliners within his own country and the larger Islamic world. Any lapse in judgment may prove costly.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal