An essential reset

On March 1, 2024, elections for Parliament and Assembly of Experts were held in Iran. The elections for 290-seats Majlis, Iran’s Parliament, are held once in every four years and 88-members Assembly of Experts are chosen once in every eight years. The Parliament in Iran frames laws for the country which are vetted by the Guardian Council before implementation. The Assembly of Experts oversees the office of the Supreme Leader and is charged with choosing the next Supreme Leader.

Significantly, this is the first-time national elections are taking place in Iran since the nation-wide protests that shook the Islamic Republic after Mahsa Amini’s death (September 16, 2022) in the judicial custody of the Morality Police. Due to the recent nation-wide protests, the observers and experts were assessing that the voter turnout in these elections will remain historically low. The voter turnout in this election was 41 per cent, the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. Only 25 million out of a total of 61 million eligible voters cast ballots despite appeals by the government and extended hours for voting. Mentionable is the fact that the voter turnout in the capital city Tehran was as low as 24 per cent.

The low voter turnout became even more apparent when the Guardian Council, that has the power to remove candidates from contesting elections, disqualified most of the moderate and centrist candidates. Even the former President Hasan Rouhani was barred from contesting election for the Assembly of Experts. This is in continuation with the consistent efforts of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to strengthen the hardliners in the government.

Even though critics argue that the Assembly of Experts have no real power, and the Supreme Leader reigns supreme, this election for the Assembly of Experts is arguably the most important one in the recent history of the Islamic Republic. Ali Khamenei is now 84 years old and is not known to be in the best of his health. Once he exits, the Assembly of Experts will have the mandate to choose the most powerful person in the Islamic Republic. Keeping the moderates away from the Assembly of Experts will ensure that a hardliner assumes the office of the Supreme Leader. So far, the current president Ebrahim Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son, are being seen as the top contenders for the post.

While the western media and the critics of the Islamic Republic are showcasing the voter turnout of 41 percent as a reflection of the Islamic Republic losing credibility and legitimacy among Iranian citizens after the ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ movement, it is important to note that the voter turnout in the 2020 elections was 42.6 percent, suggesting that the protests following Mahsa Amini’s death did not significantly affect voter turnout, contrary to what government critics suggested. Moreover, the low voter turnout worked in the ruling dispensation’s favour, as it helped the hardliners win, since the people who did not come out to vote are likely to be the ones who support the moderates and the centrists.

The election results have significant implications for India. The US is pursuing a policy of ‘Maximum Pressure’ against Iran, aiming for both economic and political isolation. Since the USA’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2019, India’s ties with Iran have been adversely impacted, resulting in zero oil imports from Iran. Now, it is perhaps of utmost importance for the Indian strategic community to acknowledge that India-Iran relations are not bilateral but have become trilateral due to US’ involvement.

The only hope for improvement in US-Iran relations was a moderate government in Iran. The recent elections testify that a moderate or centrist government is highly unlikely to govern the Islamic Republic. The prospect for any de-escalation becomes even bleaker considering the likelihood of Donald Trump getting re-elected as US President. Given the grim reality of US-Iran relations in the near future, a pertinent question to ask is: for how long can India concede to US pressure?

Considering Iran’s geopolitical situation, India possibly cannot afford to neglect rejuvenating relations with Iran for long. Since the Taliban took control in Afghanistan, the need for a trusted ally in the region has become even more critical. Revisiting its approach toward Tehran is also crucial to counter China’s increasing presence in the country. Given that in the recent past, India has emerged as a confident state on the world stage, aware and unapologetic about pursuing its national interests, India can recalibrate its approach toward Iran in a way that serves its national interests.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal