Unlearnt lessons

Update: 2023-02-08 12:11 GMT

Humans have systemised and customised the world in such a way that they remain in control of most of the things. They predict occurrences, deduct from them and tweak the outcomes to suit their own interests — something that roughly forms the core of scientific maneuvering. Yet, the devastating quakes in Turkey-Syria exhibit the inevitability of dangerous natural phenomena. Citizens of the two countries were completely caught off guard, as a 7.8 magnitude earthquake — followed by 7.6 and 6.0 magnitude quakes — killed more than 11,000 people and injured another thousands. The tremors felt on Monday morning are said to be the worst in around a century. It seconds the 1939 earthquake which measured 8.0 on the Richter Scale and killed close to 20,000 people. In the intervening period since then, the region witnessed several major earthquakes. In 1999, the Izmit Earthquake — measuring 7.4 on the Richter Scale — shook the Anatolian fault system for a duration of almost a minute. In the same year, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake rocked the region. The year 1999 witnessed the death of around 18,000 people on account of earthquakes. As far as smaller earthquakes are concerned, those are regular occurrences in the region. In 2020, Turkey alone was reported to have 33,000 earthquakes, out of which 332 earthquakes measured 4.0 and higher on the Richter Scale. As per a World Bank’s estimate, almost 95 per cent of Turkey’s landmass is prone to earthquakes while about a third of the country is at high risk. The vulnerabilities have arisen from geological constraints. Turkey is located in a region where three tectonic plates constantly grind against each other below the Earth’s surface. The tree plates are Anatolian plate, Arabian plate and Eurasian plate. The meeting points of tectonic plates create fault lines. The sudden and abrupt movements around these fault lines create earthquakes. In the case of Turkey, the North Anatolian Fault Line (NAF), sandwiched between Eurasian and Anatolian tectonic plates, is particularly dangerous. Then there is the East Anatolian Fault Line (EAF) trapped between the Anatolian Plate and the Arabian Plate. These geological constraints are more of permanent nature, inevitable and unpredictable. However, if the high-intensity earthquakes are one major problem, the insensitive construction practices in the country are no less consequential. If construction woes are taken care of, a large part of casualties, destruction and consequent monetary losses can be avoided. The widespread collapse of buildings has been largely attributed to the violation of the design code. Seismic building codes suggest that constructions be made in such a manner that they sustain 30-40 per cent acceleration of the ground from normal gravity. The current quakes may have stirred an acceleration of 20-50 per cent, meaning much of the destruction could have been avoided. After the 2011 earthquake, Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, blaming shoddy construction as a cause, had said that “municipalities, constructors and supervisors should now see that their negligence amounts to murder.” It is certainly not the first time that the country has been ravaged by an earthquake. Large swathes of settlements have been reconstructed time and again, after every such collapse. It appears that the same mistakes have been repeated time and again. This time around, as the country goes through the reconstruction process, it should make sure that the seismic sensitivity of the region is taken care of. Reconstruction has to be sustainable if the impact of such disasters is to be minimised in the long term. In fact, the only silver lining that recurrent earthquakes in the region provide is the intermittent period of quiescence that exists between two major quakes. This period of quiescence must be used efficiently in the interest and safety of the people and the broader economy. Currently, the most important task is to provide relief to, and rescue the affected persons. It is quite disheartening that relief and rescue operations stand obstructed in both Turkey and Syria. While Turkey grapples with winter storm, cold and snow debris, Syria faces debilitating war constraints. It is a positive sign that the international community has come together in this moment of crisis. Turkey’s misfortune is a lesson — not just for that country, but for other seismically sensitive zones around the world.

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