Those who fall behind

Update: 2021-05-10 13:57 GMT

There is a sense that this current wave of Covid engulfing India came 'all of a sudden' or 'out of nowhere'. For many, the experience was one of whiplash. One moment, people were being told that India 'had beaten the curve', that India had possibly achieved herd immunity, that they were somehow safe to hold mass festivals and participate in election rallies. They were told enough vaccines are in store, medicines ready and a system of healthcare prepared by a year of grim lessons. When the dominoes started tumbling and the truth of India's vulnerability in the face of a new wave became clear, it was as if a parallel reality had shifted in, replacing the old. Where once discussions and debates were dominated by politics or IPL, only weeks later the many facets of India's 'sudden' Covid horror are all that remain. It should be obvious that for those who could see, for those who had the information, for anyone paying attention, the outcome was not unexpected, even if it was shocking in its scale and severity. But that isn't what this is about. For all the ones who could have seen and should have known better, there were many for whom India's newest Covid wave has been akin to having the ground fall out from underneath their feet. Most of us are vaguely aware of their tragedy. We saw a grim spectacle of it last year as millions of migrant labourers were suddenly waylaid by the national lockdown. The march of the sick, the desperate and the abandoned. While one may optimistically hope that India is 'prepared' to endure more lockdowns without such tragedies, the reality has been quite different. India's poor, many of them barely having recovered a semblance of their daily lives after a harrowing year, are once again out struggling to keep their head above the water. Once again, lockdowns hitting India's economic centres are having a disproportionate effect on India's poor. Already stripped of any savings they may have held last year and barely getting by with shrinking wages, India's informal sector labour force is caught in the churn once again. Couple dwindling family savings with growing unemployment and the story of India's economic recovery becomes more doubtful. Economists are already cutting their forecasts of India's economic recovery for this year given the circumstances. There are fears that this situation will significantly impact domestic consumption, which accounts for almost 60 per cent of India's GDP. The few people in the informal sector who can work do so while facing immeasurable health risks amid a healthcare system that is buckling under the sheer weight of active Covid cases. Experts say that India's Covid surge could become worse in the coming weeks. Some even see India's current death toll, already considered an underestimation by a growing number of observers, could quadruple by the end of July. To add to this, you have the situation with India's vaccination campaign. Daily vaccination numbers in India have actually been dropping rather than increasing as the Covid crisis deepens. Last week saw an average of 16.6 lakh shots administered in one day as opposed to a previous high of over 40 lakh shots in April. There are questions about India's vaccine supply and how well it is keeping up with the demand. There are even debates ongoing about the pricing of the vaccine. Many of these vaccine-related issues may well be fixed in due course of time. India's vaccine producers are expanding their production capabilities and India is even importing vaccines to help boost its stock. On the side of pricing, many states have promised to provide vaccines free of cost. But this is a matter of time. For many, waiting for the situation to get better is a lot harder than it is for others. For India's informal labour, getting the vaccine in time and free of cost may be the single biggest contributing factor to returning to work safely and supporting their livelihood. And the longer the situation remains, the more the chances are of inequalities deepening within the nation. There is a real chance that when the pandemic ends and India is well on its way to economic recovery, the rich will be richer and the poor will be even poorer. This is not just empty rhetoric. Depending on what estimate you believe, as many as 230 million people in India have slipped below the national minimum wage threshold since the pandemic began. While the formal sector is able to reorganise its work and even consider procuring vaccines for its employees, the fate of India's informal sector and the lives of hundreds of millions that are tied to it hangs in the balance. This is the less-visible tragedy that is engulfing India and threatening any potential narrative of recovery.

Similar News

Power Of Participation

Depths of Extraction

Mamdani’s Tryst with Destiny

Identity and Inclusion

Her Victory, Our Pride

Grace Through Grit

A City on Edge

Uncertain Paths Ahead

Diplomacy on Edge

Engineering the Skies

Lessons in Empathy

Fragile Trade Truce