On October 9, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the dates for five states that will go for assembly polls in November. Mizoram will go for polls on November 7; Madhya Pradesh on November 17; Chhattisgarh on November 7 and 17 in two phases; Rajasthan on November 25; and Telangana on November 30. Votes for all the states will be counted on December 3. Coming towards the end of a year penultimate to that of General Elections 2024, the assembly elections in the five states are being dubbed as “semi-finals”, and not without reasons. The two prominent national parties — the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — will be facing off against each other in bipolar contests in three of the five states. While the BJP appears to be struggling to retain its government in Madhya Pradesh, it is, at the same time, striving to wrest power from Congress in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Apart from the fact that the main national rival parties are in a binary contest in these three states, the issues on which the elections are being fought also resonate with the national politics. It might not be an exaggeration to say that the results in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will, to a certain extent, indicate the direction in which the political wind is blowing. Interestingly, the BJP has decided to field a significant number of MPs in certain states — a decision that has stirred unease among its MLAs. However, it must be clearly pointed out that there is also a range of factors distinct to each of these states, which will have a major role in defining the outcomes of assembly elections. In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, who has dominated the state politics for around two decades, is facing sharp anti-incumbency. Complementing the state leadership’s emphasis on developmental works, the BJP appears to be playing its Hindutva card to sail through the tide of anti-incumbency. The INC, on the contrary, has consolidated its agenda around welfare politics and has promised to bring caste census at the national level — hoping to win the support of OBC voters. Though the INC has not been in power at the Centre for around a decade, the promise of its welfare politics garners weight and credibility from the Ashok Gehlot-led Rajasthan government. The welfare measures initiated by the government have gained widespread popularity in the state. The Gehlot government has also managed to put a cover on the factionalism within his party. The sore point for the INC government in Rajasthan, however, is that the leadership at the constituency level is not as robust as the state-level leadership. In Chhattisgarh, INC CM Bhupesh Baghel appears to be fighting on a cocktail of issues, combining welfare politics with tapping on religious identity of people. This might prove to be a smart move by Baghel. After the state was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in 2000, and the first assembly elections were held in 2003, the BJP had maintained a clear dominance in the state for 15 years with Raman Singh at the helm. It was only in 2018 that the INC secured a decisive victory by winning 68 out of the 90 seats in the assembly. The BJP had won merely 15 seats. This time around, the saffron party is looking forward to giving a close contest to the INC in the state. In Telangana, both the INC and the BJP are struggling to make inroads against the popular leadership of K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR). In the two elections held after Telangana’s coming into existence in 2014, KCR’s party has managed to consolidate its position firmly in India’s youngest state — winning 63 out of 119 seats in 2014, and 88 seats in 2018. His party has primarily focused on regional development, welfare schemes, and regional identity, which have resonated with the people of Telangana. However, it changed name from Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) to Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) — ostensibly in a bid to assert national position, beyond Telangana. The INC appears to have gained some foothold in the state, with BJP still being a distant aspirant. The political landscape of Mizoram has traditionally been a stronghold of regional parties. But over the last two decades, the INC has managed to flip powers in the state. The INC ruled the state between 2008 and 2018 — before it was wrested back by the Zoramthanga-led Mizo National Front (MNF). Zoramthanga and his party Mizo National Front have been a strong force in the state over decades. Owing to Mizoram’s predominantly Christian population, the BJP has failed to make any significant mark in the state. The outcomes of the assembly elections in these five states will be closely watched. Whether or not they serve as a “semi-final” to represent the public mood ahead of 2024 General Elections, they can certainly lend momentum and confidence to the party that performs better. This could be an excellent opportunity for the INC to consolidate its position before 2024.