Mixed bag of outcomes

Update: 2022-12-09 17:10 GMT

As the nation is ready to enter the penultimate year to next general elections, voters from Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have delivered the verdicts that have provided the three prominent parties — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — some or the other reason to celebrate. The BJP, in Gujarat, by winning an unprecedented 156 out of the overall 182 seats, has created a history — helping it to retain power in the state for the seventh consecutive term. It has matched the record of the Left Front rule in West Bengal, which was dethroned by Mamata Banerjee's TMC in 2011 after 34 years of unchallenged supremacy. The Congress, at the same time, has wrested power from a fractured BJP in Himachal Pradesh by winning 40 of the 68 seats — maintaining the alternating nature of power control in the state. Spearheaded by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the Congress, despite deep rifts among the higher ranks of the state leadership, managed to hold the cards together, and successfully cashed on burning local issues like the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) and the Agniveer Scheme. The AAP, which had already sort of given up in Himachal Pradesh, fought fiercely in Gujarat, and secured an impressive vote percentage of 12.9 per cent — clearing its way to become the ninth national party of India. While it failed in Himachal Pradesh, the AAP, in Gujarat, has punched above its weight to fill up the opposition space which the Congress has been persistently conceding. The party, it appears, is successfully heading towards a long battle where it sees itself as a direct challenger to the BJP. Going forward, the election results offer some crucial insights. With just over a year to go for the general elections, BJP's time-tested 'Modi magic' formula has delivered mixed results. In Gujarat, neither the Morbi disaster nor Bilkis Bano rape case was good enough to dilute the chants of 'Modi'. The results in the Morbi district went completely in favour of the BJP. Also, the legislator who had dubbed the rapists of Bilkis Bano as "Sanskari Brahmins" has won his seventh consecutive term. The BJP, with a short-notice overhaul of state leadership, has also managed to defy anti-incumbency threats. On the contrary, in Himachal Pradesh, the massive campaigning by BJP's national heavyweights was overshadowed by the INC's more pragmatic local campaigning. The BJP might have advertently or inadvertently failed to do the kind of overhauling exercised in Gujarat. The two totally different outcomes show that the success of Modi magic depends on a range of unrelated aspects, and may vary from state to state and region to region. It might be a matter of retrospection, and even research, for opposition political parties as to what strategy has to be adopted in which state/region. Victories and defeats apart, the Gujarat assembly elections were closely watched for insights on two crucial aspects — how greater will be the margin of victory for the BJP, and to what extent the AAP will gain a foothold. On the first aspect, the BJP's landslide victory has left no scope for doubts. On the second aspect, the AAP has again stood firm on the expectations. As per a data analysis by The Hindu, in terms of seats won, the AAP gained equally from the Congress and the BJP; and in terms of the vote share, the AAP gained slightly more from the BJP than from the Congress. Therefore, it would be wrong to say that the AAP is merely gaining the spaces left vacant by the Congress. Its unique election agenda has found a general resonance among the masses. Just a day before Gujarat election results, the AAP had managed to wrest power from the BJP in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi. If AAP has to thrive in national politics, it will have to prove its agenda time and again. It certainly has a fair amount of opportunity in this regard.

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