Nadir of relation

A standoff has started between Pakistan and Afghanistan in light of renewed terror attacks targeting various locations in Pakistan, alleged by Pakistan to have been carried out from Afghanistan. As recently as March 16, seven Pakistani security personnel were killed in a terrorist attack. As a retaliatory measure, Pakistan hit targets in Paktika and Khost provinces on March 18. Pakistani agencies suspect the hand of Hafiz Gul Bahadar in planning and executing these assaults. While the Pakistani Foreign Office (FO) claims to be trying not to escalate matters with Afghanistan, the situation has come to such a pass that security analysts feel it will cause further deterioration of Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban, and some even go to the extent of assessing that Pakistan may lose whatever leverage it has with Afghanistan, likely further heightening security concerns.

Here, it may be recapitulated that after the new Pakistani government assumed office, there was a routine exchange of pleasantries between the Foreign Minister and his Afghan counterpart, as both decided to expand cooperation in various sectors, including security. The North Waziristan attack and its fallout, however, have come as a painful reality check and are the government’s first test on the Afghan front of its management of relations with Kabul. Experts, in order to maintain a balanced stance, reckon that both sides must verify where the attacks targeting Pakistan originated. While Afghan Taliban officials insist their territory is not being used by terrorists, Pakistani agencies feel there is a lot of evidence suggesting otherwise. Pakistan has raised the issue of terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan at the UN, whose officials have similarly highlighted the presence of numerous terror groups in Afghanistan. Instead of feigning ignorance, the Afghan Taliban, as Pakistan wants, should take action to stop anti-Pakistan forces from launching attacks inside the country, especially if they are serious in their quest to be accepted as Afghanistan’s legitimate government.

Meanwhile, security experts also advise the new Pakistani government that while clear threats to national security call for immediate neutralisation, Pakistan needs to resort to diplomatic methods as well to solve the problems of terrorism once and for all by engaging the Taliban regime. In this regard, a communication channel between Kabul and Islamabad has to be kept open. Also, Pakistan should prevail upon Afghanistan to eliminate terrorist sanctuaries existing along the border. Adding further, an editorial in a leading Pakistani newspaper has suggested the use of the good offices of China as it offers considerable financial support to the Taliban-led government. Therefore, it (China) can also be asked to take punitive measures if the Taliban declines to crack down on the terrorists on Afghan soil. Crucially, the terrorist threat from Afghanistan, in reality, has the potential to destabilise the entire region, and therefore, it merits the attention of all regional players to work on a common Counter-Terrorism agenda with Kabul using bilateral channels.

In the meantime, displaying a tone of assertion, the new President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari, vowed to eliminate terrorism from the country. However, his statement is unlikely to make much difference as the terrorists hardly take note of such assertions, dismissing them as mere rhetoric, being political in nature. On the other hand, the Afghan government stated (March 18) that the Pakistan armed forces have violated the territorial integrity of Afghanistan, violating the airspace and carrying out airstrikes, killing eight innocent civilians in Paktika and Khost. It may also be pertinent to point out that Pakistan has time and again accused the Afghan authorities of not taking action against the terrorist outfits operating from Afghan soil, perpetrating cross-border attacks targeting security personnel and civilians. It particularly mentions Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for such attacks.

Judging by the recent terror attacks on Pakistani targets and military retaliation by Pakistan hitting out at Afghanistan, it gives an idea that the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have reached their nadir. Also, there is hardly any trace of optimism in the near future. It is very intriguing that these unsavoury happenings occurred within days of the establishment of the new government in Pakistan in the wake of February 8 elections. It would appear that the Afghan dispensation, led by the Taliban, clearly wants to send a signal to Pakistan that the Afghan regime is still a force to reckon with, and is in no mood to relent and go back to its earlier Pakistan-related foreign policy or terror-linked activities, which had been in place even in the previous regime preceding Shahbaz Sharif. Hence, it would seem a difficult task for Pakistan as its new government got a rattling soon after it assumed office, and before it could put its house in order, including streamlining its failed economy, the Taliban government started challenging it not by engaging in talks or diplomacy but by a direct terror-centric confrontation—possibly trying to talk from a position of strength. Now, the onus is on Pakistan to mend its fences with Kabul, or else such Afghan “misadventurism” shall continue to pinprick Pakistan, causing discomfort and unease.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal