DUBAI: The US may have pulled the trigger on the Iran war, but it is the oil-producing Gulf that will pay the price, Gulf sources and analysts say, signalling unease in ties between a region under Iranian attack and the superpower it relies on for protection.
Behind the scenes, resentment is mounting in Gulf Arab capitals at being drawn into a war they neither initiated nor endorsed but are now paying for economically and militarily, with airports, hotels, ports and military and oil installations hit by Iranian strikes, said three regional sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak publicly.
“It is not our war. We did not want this conflict, yet we are paying the price in our security and our economy,” Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center, told Reuters.
That doesn’t mean Iran is “innocent”, she said. Gulf governments had assured Tehran they would not allow their territories or airspace to be used by Washington in the war. Yet Iran has unleashed waves of drone and missile strikes across the region despite those assurances, denting business confidence in the process.
While disquiet about U.S. President Donald Trump is growing over a conflict many believe he launched without consultation, some regional sources argue that having started the war, Washington should now see it through to eliminate what they see as a persistent Iranian threat on their doorstep.
“If America leaves the war now without achieving victory, it will be like abandoning an injured lion,” Ketbi said. “Iran will remain a threat to the region, capable of striking again. And if the regime collapses, leaving a power vacuum, neighbouring states will suffer the consequences.”
Asked for comment, the White House said U.S. and Israeli strikes had reduced Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks by 90 percent, “crushing their ability to shoot these weapons or produce more”.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly added that Trump was in close contact with Middle East partners and that Iran’s attacks on its neighbors underscore why the threat had to be eliminated. There was no immediate response from Gulf states to requests for comment.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war. Tehran responded by hitting Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, effectively halting oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz -- a conduit for roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum and LNG.
Across the region, airspace closures have resulted in airlines cancelling some 40,000 flights, the largest disruption to global air travel since
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gulf tourism meanwhile is also taking a hit, putting at risk the region’s carefully crafted image as a safe and high-end vacation hotspot.
Amid the turmoil, Gulf states have sought to project calm and resolve. The president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said on Friday his nation was in a time of war but was well and told his enemies it was no easy prey, in his first public comments since Iran fired missiles at the UAE.
At the same time, analysts say the war has left Gulf states reassessing both their security dependence on Washington and the prospect of eventually engaging Tehran on new regional security arrangements -- even as trust in Iran has collapsed.