Jerusalem: Israel has routed its enemies across the region but has yet to return all its hostages from the Gaza Strip. Hamas appears to have been decimated militarily but has kept up insurgent attacks. Gaza is in ruins and experts say it is sliding into famine, and long-running ceasefire talks seem to have broken down.
So where do we go from here?
Both Israel and Hamas have embraced visions for how the war should end, but mediators from two American administrations, Egypt and Qatar have yet to bridge the gaps. There are at least two other scenarios in which the war goes on indefinitely, at an unimaginable cost to Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians, the Israeli hostages and their families.
Full reoccupation of Gaza
For days now, Israeli media have reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on the verge of ordering the full reoccupation of Gaza for the first time since Israel withdrew soldiers and settlers two decades ago. He is expected to meet with his security Cabinet late Thursday, possibly to make a decision.
That would mean sending ground troops into the few areas of Gaza that haven’t been totally destroyed, the roughly 25 per cent of the territory where much of its 2 million people have sought refuge, including the sprawling coastal displacement camps of Muwasi.
It would lead to countless more Palestinian deaths and more mass displacement, and it could put the roughly 20 remaining living hostages at serious risk. It would also leave Israel in full control of the territory, obliged by international law to provide security and ensure the basic needs of the population are met.
Reoccupation would spark outrage internationally and further isolate Israel and the US. There is also opposition within Israel, from those who fear for the hostages and former security chiefs who have warned of a quagmire.
But it has strong support among Netanyahu’s far-right governing partners, who have long called for the reconquest of Gaza, the relocation of much of its population to other countries, and the rebuilding of Jewish settlements.
A ceasefire in line with international demands
Hamas has said it will release all the remaining hostages in return for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.
Those demands were adopted by the Biden administration and the UN Security Council over a year ago, and enshrined in the ceasefire agreement finalised by the Trump administration in January. That brought about a six-week ceasefire, the release of 25 living hostages and the remains of eight others, and a flood of humanitarian aid.agencies