Dubai: As the United States assembles its greatest military firepower in decades in the Middle East, Iranians are warily awaiting the next round of talks with the US in Geneva this week — negotiations that many see as a last chance for their ruling theocracy to strike a deal with President Donald Trump.
Some say the situation feels hopeless. Battered by decades of sanctions, heightened by Trump’s 2018 decision to withdraw from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers, Iranians also just suffered through the bloodiest crackdown on dissent in the country’s modern history as security forces in January killed thousands of people and detained tens of thousands more.
Now, as they await the outcome of the Geneva talks on Thursday, many fear the outbreak of a war that could surpass Iran’s bloody 1980s conflict with Iraq.
But while that conflict sparked a patriotic response from Iranian volunteers, the prospects of a war with the US have riven a population that still includes hard-line supporters of the country’s theocracy as well as those who feel Iran is splitting at the seams.
“Every morning when I get up, my brain is full of chaos,” said Sepideh Bafarani, a 29-year-old woman who works in a women’s clothing store. “It’s a possible war ... and an ongoing bad economic situation.”
Rasool Razzaghi, a 54-year-old resident in Tehran, the Iranian capital, summed up the approaching talks with a similar concern.
“I predict that if both sides really mean what they are saying, a war will start,” he said.
For weeks, Trump has talked about an “armada” that is now largely in place off the coast of Iran, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.
He has also sent the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, from the Caribbean toward the Mideast.
Overall, there are at least 16 US Navy ships assembled, according to an analysis by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
That’s comparable to Operation Desert Fox in 1998, when American and British forces bombed Iraq for four days over Saddam Hussein’s refusal to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions about weapons inspections. Between the carriers and aircraft on the ground in Jordan, there are also stealth F-35 fighters and other warplanes capable of launching a major attack on Iran.
Iranians have been watching the buildup with growing concern, either by surreptitiously getting around internet restrictions or watching satellite news channels.
Iranian state television has meanwhile kept showing the country’s military running drills and its leaders threatening massive retaliation against any American assault.
Iranian state TV on Tuesday said the country’s Revolutionary Guard held a drill that included launching missiles, flying drones and firing guns at targets along its coast, without elaborating on the exact time or place of the exercise.
“I don’t know. I’m not so optimistic,” a passer-by told The Associated Press on Tuesday in Tehran, declining to give his name for fear of reprisals.