The moment Chief Election Commissioner V S Sampath and his colleagues last week announced the dates for the assembly poll in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the television news channels had their gladiators ready to debate what Gujarat elections 2012 meant to the nation and to Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s party–the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP]. May be inadvertently, but the build-up for the announcement of the date was most appropriate with Congress president Sonia Gandhi visiting Gujarat to launch her party’s poll campaign and Narendra Modi making the attempt to deflate her visit by bringing the charge of Rs 1,880 crore being spent on her treatment abroad.
The channels have been quick to term the Gujarat polls as semi-final to the finals of 2014 general elections. This is not the first time that the channels have called a round of assembly polls as semi-finals. But I would not grudge them this time though four major states of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi would be electing members to the next assembly in the winter of 2013, six months ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Since Modi is the biggest anti-hero of Indian politics in the recent times, for some even a victim of circumstances; no wonder his battle attracts such attention. Despite Sonia Gandhi’s sojourn and the channels going hammer and tongs over the ‘impact’ her visit created, it’s still unthinkable that Modi could face a defeat in next polls.
Congressmen point to party’s success in last Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat, when it won 12 to BJP’s 14. In 2009, in vote share the Congress got 43.86 per cent to BJP’s 47.37 per cent. However, the four per cent difference in vote share could have a very different effect in assembly elections and the gap in the number of assembly seats could grow wider.
Given the scenario, what is it that makes the Gujarat elections so crucial to corner complete media attention. The results from Gujarat, to an extent, are going to draw the contours of the composition of BJP’s assault team for the next Lok Sabha polls. There already is a clamour in a section of BJP’s rank and file to declare Narendra Modi as the party’s next prime ministerial candidate. Modi’s nomination, however, is faced with three-way resistance – first the BJP’s central leadership, second the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh [RSS] and of course from the allies from the National Democratic Alliance [NDA].
When the opposition to Modi’s nomination as prime ministerial candidate is so widespread, how come the Gujarat chief minister still harbours the ambition? Modi is always known to flourish in adverse political conditions. He is one politician who has turned difficult situations into opportunities. He is a ‘method’ politician, who works on the script very closely. He can sink into the role he assigns to himself.
In the mid-1990s, when he was banished from Gujarat following the revolt by Shankarsinh Vaghela and made to cool heels in Delhi, he used the opportunity to free himself of the image of a traditional pracharak.
He joined a delegation of young politicians going abroad for adequate exposure and took to wearing western outfits and visiting socially and politically significant evening gathering in the national Capital. This gave him a network which could propel him to the chief ministerial chair of Gujarat in 2001. Since then there has been no looking back for him.
However, the winter of 2012 is going to be a big challenge for Modi. Not that his grasp of Gujarat politics has become any weaker but he himself has raised the bar for being called ‘successful’ for a third time in a row. For past few years, especially after the party’s nationwide debacle in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Narendra Modi has made a consistent attempt to project himself as party’s biggest mass leader. The ‘method’ in script is visible all over from reaching out to the minorities to projecting Gujarat as a paradise.
But for the conventional observers, there seems to be a problem with the script this time as Modi has lost the ‘warmth’ of party’s central leadership and that of the RSS too. During the crucial electoral battles of 2002 and 2007, Modi had complete support of the RSS cadres and also patronage of BJP’s top leadership specially that of former deputy prime minister Lal Krishna Advani.
Not that Advani and RSS share a warm relationship anymore. The veteran has not been happy at RSS facilitating another term for BJP president Nitin Gadkari. Gadkari in turn would want his revenge for his nominee Sanjay Joshi, Modi’s bete noire, being made to unceremoniously exit from party’s executive at Gujarat chief minister’s behest. Party’s leader in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj is not exactly enamoured with Gujarat chief minister’s ambitions.
This leaves Modi only with the company of Arun Jaitley, his old comrade, a word which may not easily find a place in BJP’s lexicon. Party’s leader in Rajya Sabha has a difficult task cut out for him – to maintain a truck and truce between the party and its protégé in Gujarat. The situation would need all forthrightness and ability to articulate that Jaitley has at his command to maintain that delicate balance to ensure both a respectable victory for the party and also maintain the respect of central leadership. How far would Modi trust Jaitley would be something which observers would also keenly watch.
Sidharth Mishra is with Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice, and consulting editor, Millennium Post.
The channels have been quick to term the Gujarat polls as semi-final to the finals of 2014 general elections. This is not the first time that the channels have called a round of assembly polls as semi-finals. But I would not grudge them this time though four major states of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi would be electing members to the next assembly in the winter of 2013, six months ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Since Modi is the biggest anti-hero of Indian politics in the recent times, for some even a victim of circumstances; no wonder his battle attracts such attention. Despite Sonia Gandhi’s sojourn and the channels going hammer and tongs over the ‘impact’ her visit created, it’s still unthinkable that Modi could face a defeat in next polls.
Congressmen point to party’s success in last Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat, when it won 12 to BJP’s 14. In 2009, in vote share the Congress got 43.86 per cent to BJP’s 47.37 per cent. However, the four per cent difference in vote share could have a very different effect in assembly elections and the gap in the number of assembly seats could grow wider.
Given the scenario, what is it that makes the Gujarat elections so crucial to corner complete media attention. The results from Gujarat, to an extent, are going to draw the contours of the composition of BJP’s assault team for the next Lok Sabha polls. There already is a clamour in a section of BJP’s rank and file to declare Narendra Modi as the party’s next prime ministerial candidate. Modi’s nomination, however, is faced with three-way resistance – first the BJP’s central leadership, second the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh [RSS] and of course from the allies from the National Democratic Alliance [NDA].
When the opposition to Modi’s nomination as prime ministerial candidate is so widespread, how come the Gujarat chief minister still harbours the ambition? Modi is always known to flourish in adverse political conditions. He is one politician who has turned difficult situations into opportunities. He is a ‘method’ politician, who works on the script very closely. He can sink into the role he assigns to himself.
In the mid-1990s, when he was banished from Gujarat following the revolt by Shankarsinh Vaghela and made to cool heels in Delhi, he used the opportunity to free himself of the image of a traditional pracharak.
He joined a delegation of young politicians going abroad for adequate exposure and took to wearing western outfits and visiting socially and politically significant evening gathering in the national Capital. This gave him a network which could propel him to the chief ministerial chair of Gujarat in 2001. Since then there has been no looking back for him.
However, the winter of 2012 is going to be a big challenge for Modi. Not that his grasp of Gujarat politics has become any weaker but he himself has raised the bar for being called ‘successful’ for a third time in a row. For past few years, especially after the party’s nationwide debacle in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Narendra Modi has made a consistent attempt to project himself as party’s biggest mass leader. The ‘method’ in script is visible all over from reaching out to the minorities to projecting Gujarat as a paradise.
But for the conventional observers, there seems to be a problem with the script this time as Modi has lost the ‘warmth’ of party’s central leadership and that of the RSS too. During the crucial electoral battles of 2002 and 2007, Modi had complete support of the RSS cadres and also patronage of BJP’s top leadership specially that of former deputy prime minister Lal Krishna Advani.
Not that Advani and RSS share a warm relationship anymore. The veteran has not been happy at RSS facilitating another term for BJP president Nitin Gadkari. Gadkari in turn would want his revenge for his nominee Sanjay Joshi, Modi’s bete noire, being made to unceremoniously exit from party’s executive at Gujarat chief minister’s behest. Party’s leader in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj is not exactly enamoured with Gujarat chief minister’s ambitions.
This leaves Modi only with the company of Arun Jaitley, his old comrade, a word which may not easily find a place in BJP’s lexicon. Party’s leader in Rajya Sabha has a difficult task cut out for him – to maintain a truck and truce between the party and its protégé in Gujarat. The situation would need all forthrightness and ability to articulate that Jaitley has at his command to maintain that delicate balance to ensure both a respectable victory for the party and also maintain the respect of central leadership. How far would Modi trust Jaitley would be something which observers would also keenly watch.
Sidharth Mishra is with Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice, and consulting editor, Millennium Post.