Coherent Countdown?

Amid a flurry of exciting and dramatic ongoing political developments in Bangladesh, more heat was generated in the wake of the most recent disclosure (August 5) by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus that the nation would go to the polls in February next year, kickstarting the process of transferring power to an elected government. He further declared that he would send a letter to the Chief Election Commissioner, requesting that the Election Commission hold the national election before next Ramadan in February 2026, he said in a televised address to the nation marking one year of the July Uprising. Mohd Yunus also announced the much-anticipated election timeframe just hours after unveiling the July Declaration, which calls for constitutional and state recognition of the 2024 student-led mass upheaval that brought an end to Sheikh Hasina's rule.

Significantly, the Chief Adviser also said that his government would begin mental and institutional preparations immediately to ensure that this election becomes memorable in the country's history in terms of joy and festivity, peace and order, voter turnout, and mutual respect and sincerity. The announcement came at a crucial juncture when the major political parties are still split over the date on which the 13th Parliamentary polls should be held. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and allies had been stressing that the election be held in February following a meeting between Prof Yunus and BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman in London in early June. On the other hand, the National Citizen Party (NCP) wants the polls to be held after visible progress in reforms and the trial of those responsible for the killings during the uprising. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has been demanding reforms before elections. The BNP, Nagorik Oikya, Ganosamhati Andolan, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, etc., have welcomed the Chief Adviser’s announcement, while the NCP and Jamaat did not give any immediate reaction and said they would come up with their statements after discussions in their party fora.

In his televised address, Yunus praised the contribution of the expatriates in recovering the previously devastated economy with remittances. He said the Election Commission was making preparations to ensure that expatriate voters are able to cast their ballots this time. He also indicated that it would be ensured that women voters across the country can cast their votes freely and with enthusiasm. He alleged that the citizens could not cast their votes during the Awami League’s (AL) tenure as they were robbed of their right to franchise. This statement was perhaps political in tenor and avoidable on the part of the Chief Adviser, who should be seen as apolitical.

Similarly, his statement that the July Uprising showed the ultimate consequence of any party forcibly grabbing power through a flawed election was also perhaps avoidable, as was the allegation that the people did not want any repetition of such disgraceful chapters of Bangladesh’s history. He cautioned that a certain group is desperate to obstruct the election process and is engaged in various conspiracies from both within and outside the country to disrupt democratic progress. However, what Yunus insinuated by saying “outside” the country remains unclear. He also cautioned that the “defeated forces” will try repeatedly to re-emerge before the election. But if a free, fair, and impartial election is successfully held, those evil forces will face final defeat. Analysing his address, it would appear that the speech was perhaps political in tone, tenor, and syntax. This was possibly to ensure that the ousted party does not have any breathing space.

Meanwhile, reacting to the announcement of the election dates, the most widely read English daily The Daily Star stated that the announcement has finally provided what Bangladesh needed most — clarity about a general election. This single act, the paper said, coming on the anniversary of the previous government's collapse, replaces a year of uncertainty with a clear timeframe for the transition to democracy. The nation can now rally around two fundamental and inseparable goals: the promise of a return to representative rule and the urgent necessity of reforms, especially in governance, anti-corruption, and policing. An election without reforms risks a return to the flawed politics of the past, while reforms without the legitimacy of an elected government would remain fragile, it said. The election announcement, according to The Daily Star, will also be a much-needed boost to economic confidence. For the past year, both domestic and international investors have remained on the sidelines, waiting for a signal of political predictability. While the interim administration has managed to contain inflation and protect foreign exchange reserves, only the promise of a stable, elected government can truly unlock Bangladesh's economic potential.

While the country may be euphoric over the announcement of the election dates, this entire development merits a close examination in light of the emerging contours of the future political landscape in the country. As we all know, the BNP is in a hurry to contest the elections and return to power, having been in oblivion for the last several years, and is desperate to assume power. Under the circumstances, it might even collaborate electorally with the JeI and other like-minded parties to form the government, as in the past when it had formed a government with two Jamaat ministers in the BNP-led administration.

From the point of view of Indian security concerns, a very cautious approach is called for in case the BNP and Jamaat come to power. As in the previous partnership, anti-Indian insurgency camps and training facilities mushroomed on Bangladeshi soil, most certainly with Pakistani footprints. Another cautionary step that needs to be factored in is the stepped-up Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) activities in Bangladesh targeting Indian security interests. According to some credible inputs, the presence of Pakistani ISI personnel has been noticed near the Mirpur Cantonment area, with a blueprint of subversive plans in West Bengal and Northeast India. While this awaits corroboration, such suspicions need to be taken seriously and neutralised as early as possible.

Further, and without exaggeration — though it may appear far-fetched — communal elements in Bangladesh may get emboldened after the announcement of the elections, fulfilling their wishful thinking of coming back to power directly or indirectly, so that they can have a free run in espousing communal activities endangering minorities and their property. Although the elections are six months away, upping the antenna from now onwards could perhaps be wise, lest it becomes too late to address the region’s security concerns.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal