Unholy Nexus

While the global community responded cautiously to the Pahalgam terror attack, with most backing India, Turkey and Azerbaijan stood out for their vocal support of Pakistan. Notably, it was revealed that Pakistan utilized 300-400 Turkish drones during the military conflict in a failed attempt to attack security establishments in Jammu, Pathankot, Jaisalmer, and other cities.

Historical Ties and Cultural Affinity

The relationship between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan is rooted in shared history and cultural heritage. Their common Muslim identity has fostered a sense of brotherhood and solidarity. Turkey has been a vocal advocate for Muslim rights worldwide, and its support for Pakistan aligns with this narrative. Azerbaijan also shares strong cultural and historical ties with Pakistan, evident in their collaboration on educational and economic initiatives. President Ilham Aliyev's unwavering support for Pakistan reflects Azerbaijan's unequivocal stance on the Kashmir issue.

Strategic Interests and Energy Politics

Beyond cultural affinity, Turkey and Azerbaijan's support for Pakistan is driven by strategic interests and energy politics. As a major regional player, Turkey promotes its energy interests through initiatives like the TurkStream pipeline, supplying Russian gas to Europe. Pakistan's geographical location makes it an attractive partner for potential energy corridors and trade routes. Turkey's defense ties with Pakistan have grown rapidly, with the Turkish government supplying critical military hardware and conducting training for Pakistan's army during "Operation Sindoor."

Azerbaijan, a significant oil and gas producer, seeks to diversify its energy exports and reduce dependence on Russian pipelines. The country explores new routes, including the Southern Gas Corridor, which would supply Azeri gas to Europe. Pakistan's potential role in this project has been discussed, reflecting Azerbaijan's broader energy strategy.

The diplomatic efforts are matched by increased trilateral cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan on defense and security fronts. The nations engage in joint military exercises, and potential defense deals have been reported.

Double Standards Against India

In a remarkable display of humanitarian aid, India dispatched over 250 personnel and 135 tons of relief to earthquake-hit Turkish towns under "Operation Dost" in February 2023. The Turkish Ambassador acknowledged India's gesture, calling it a "true friend." However, despite this generosity, Turkey has consistently sided against India on critical issues.

Turkey has publicly supported Pakistan's anti-Indian agenda, with President Erdoğan repeatedly raising the Kashmir issue in international forums. He even reiterated this stance in front of Pakistan's parliament, drawing applause from the military. This double standard is notable, given India's humanitarian efforts.

Azerbaijan's stance is similarly paradoxical. While supporting Pakistan on Kashmir, Azerbaijan benefits from Indian cooperation in infrastructure, trade, and connectivity. This inconsistency raises questions about priorities and diplomatic relationships.

India’s Response

Turkey and Azerbaijan, once among the fastest-growing tourist destinations for Indian travelers and emerging trade partners, now face an unexpected economic squeeze. In 2024, Turkey welcomed approximately 3.3 lakh Indian tourists, a 20.7 per cent increase from the previous year. Azerbaijan saw a staggering 108 per cent rise, with 2.43 lakh Indian visitors. However, Indian travel platforms like MakeMyTrip reported a 60 per cent drop in bookings to these countries, with cancellations surging by 250 per cent and a 42 per cent drop in VISA applications. Travel companies like EaseMyTrip, Ixigo, Cleartrip, and Cox & Kings issued advisories urging travelers to avoid non-essential travel. Amid high diplomatic tensions, Turkey's efforts to entice Indian tourists back seem futile. The 1.4 billion Indians have silently protested, highlighting the need for political accountability without any government or media intervention.

Implications

The trilateral relationship between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan is unlikely to significantly impact India's economy, despite their political support for Pakistan. India's trade with these countries represents a small fraction of its global trade, with Turkey accounting for only 1.5 per cent of its exports and 0.5 per cent of imports. For Azerbaijan, the figures are 0.02 per cent and 0.0002 per cent, respectively. Given the relatively small trade volume and India's trade surplus with these countries, the economic impact will be minimal.

India exports goods like mineral fuels, oil, and pharmaceuticals to Turkey, while importing marble and apples. With Azerbaijan, India trades goods like tobacco, tea, and chemicals. Although Indian traders are boycotting some Turkish products, the overall economic impact remains limited.

Geopolitically, India is strengthening ties with countries like Iran and Armenia, addressing concerns about the emerging trilateral nexus. India also invited Armenian politicians to the Raisina Dialogue, a strategic move to keep Turkey and Azerbaijan on their toes.

The diplomatic tensions have raised concerns about Indian QSR stocks, particularly Devyani International, which operates KFC and Pizza Hut outlets in Turkey. Its shares fell nearly 5 per cent. The primary concern is potential losses for Indian businesses operating in Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Concluding Remarks

The dynamics between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan will continue to shape the regional landscape, and India must adapt its strategy to address emerging challenges. Economically, India has little to worry about, but geopolitically, the stakes are high, and the region's future is uncertain. Turkey's NATO membership could draw in Western involvement, altering global power dynamics. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's close ties with Russia might pull Moscow into the conflict, further complicating the situation. The evolving dynamics will require careful navigation and strategic planning from India to protect its interests.

Fr. John Felix Raj is the Vice Chancellor, and Sovik Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Faculty of Commerce and Management, both at St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata. Views expressed are personal