The Kabul Realignment

As Home Minister Amit Shah was targeting Muslims during an election rally in Bihar, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar was welcoming Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban’s acting foreign minister, in New Delhi — a government India does not recognise. Mr Muttaqi’s visit became possible after Pakistan played a significant role as one of the vice-chairs of the United Nations Taliban Sanctions Committee, which led to the temporary lifting of the travel ban on him. Ironically, while he was addressing an all-male press conference in India, Pakistan’s Air Force was carrying out airstrikes in Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan. These simultaneous events underscore how swiftly and unexpectedly political realignments have taken place between parties that seemed friends and foes just a week ago.

One may remember the picture of former Pakistan ISI chief Faiz Hameed having a cup of tea with Taliban leaders after they took control of Afghanistan, when US and NATO forces left in August 2021. Then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan declared that the Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery.” With a friendly Taliban government in its backyard, it was an ideal scenario for the Pakistani military establishment.

However, as the saying goes, there are many a slip between the cup and the lip. The Pakistani army’s definition of “good Taliban” and “bad Taliban” turned out to be counterproductive. The army believed that with the good Taliban in power, they would remove the leadership of the bad Taliban — Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — who had taken refuge in Afghanistan and were launching attacks inside Pakistan from there. Many Pakistani analysts had warned that both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP profess the same ideology, and the new Afghan dispensation would never abandon them. This is the reason why relations between the two deteriorated, and the Pakistani army was forced to conduct airstrikes in Afghanistan targeting the TTP leadership.

This provided India with a new opening on a platter. For 20 years, India has heavily invested billions of dollars in developing Afghanistan’s infrastructure when the US-backed, internationally recognised Afghan government was in power.

Though India maintained diplomatic contact with the Taliban regime — such as Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s meeting with Muttaqi in Dubai earlier this year — Operation Sindoor accelerated India’s efforts to strengthen its presence in Pakistan’s backyard by attempting to wean the Taliban away from Pakistan’s influence.

This is the reason why India avoided minor irritants like the “two flags” issue. During the meeting between Jaishankar and Muttaqi, there were no flags on the table, and Jaishankar referred to Muttaqi simply as the foreign minister of Afghanistan. During Muttaqi’s press conference, a small table-top flag of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan was placed next to the minister.

It can be interpreted that women journalists were barred from the press conference at the request of the visiting minister, to spare him the embarrassment he might have faced if they had questioned him on women’s rights in present-day Afghanistan.

Given the regional power dynamics, most Indian analysts are calling it a diplomatic coup of sorts and a strategic setback to Pakistan. With the de facto recognition of the Taliban regime, India has gained a foothold in strategically placed Afghanistan.

Views expressed are personal. The writer has worked in senior editorial positions for many renowned international publications