Confidence Without Alignment

When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in New Delhi in the third week of January 2026, the visit will be read not as an isolated bilateral engagement, but as part of a carefully sequenced diplomatic narrative. Unlike his predecessor Olaf Scholz’s coalition complexities, Merz’s conservative leadership post-May 2025 election promises a more decisive push on security and trade, contrasting Berlin’s earlier hesitations. Coming weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit and just ahead of the India–EU Summit, the timing highlights how India is consciously positioning itself as a power that engages across geopolitical divides without being constrained by them. In an increasingly divided world, the order in which leaders arrive in New Delhi often matters as much as the meetings themselves.

India’s strategic autonomy, often mistaken for hesitation, is in fact a deliberate and confident diplomatic choice. Rather than aligning with rigid blocs, New Delhi is expanding its room for manoeuvre by engaging multiple partners in a fractured global order. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly underlined, India’s foreign policy is guided not by blocs but by national interest, a principle that increasingly defines New Delhi’s global posture.

Diplomacy in the Age of Public Signalling

The digital conversation around Merz’s visit offers a revealing layer to this strategy. Social media discussions over the past weeks have not revolved around protocol or symbolism alone; instead, they have framed India as a country confident enough to host major leaders from rival geopolitical camps in close succession. Analysts, former diplomats, and strategic commentators online have repeatedly interpreted the sequencing from Moscow to Berlin as evidence that India no longer reacts to global power shifts but manages them.

What is notable is the absence of domestic polarisation on this issue in online discourse. Unlike earlier phases of the Ukraine war, recent conversations reflect a broad acceptance that India’s engagement with Russia is transactional and historical, while its engagement with Europe is strategic and forward-looking. This convergence of elite and popular narratives strengthens India’s diplomatic credibility abroad.

Germany, Europe, and India’s Economic Calculus

Germany’s importance to India extends well beyond symbolism. It is India’s largest trading partner in the European Union. Bilateral trade crossed USD 26 billion in 2024, and German foreign direct investment stock in India has exceeded USD 14 billion, spanning automobiles, engineering, chemicals, and clean technology. Over 1,800 German companies currently operate in India, employing several hundred thousand people directly and indirectly.

The Merz visit is therefore widely viewed as a preparatory step toward building momentum for the long-stalled India–EU Free Trade Agreement. Timed just before the January 27 India-EU summit, Merz’s trip is expected to inject momentum into the long-stalled India–EU FTA discussions, particularly on tariffs and market access. Policy discussions increasingly suggest that Berlin could play a bridging role within the EU at a time of supply-chain recalibration. European diplomats have increasingly described India as a “partner of choice, not convenience” in a shifting global economy.

From India’s perspective, deeper economic alignment with Germany offers access to advanced manufacturing, green hydrogen technologies, and Industry 4.0 expertise areas central to India’s own industrial transformation agenda.

Strategic Autonomy and the Russia–Ukraine Question

India’s position on the Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to attract scrutiny, but the tone of global commentary has subtly shifted. European political discourse, as reflected both in official messaging and online analysis and now appears more pragmatic. Rather than pressing India for alignment, the focus has moved toward keeping New Delhi engaged as a stabilising actor with influence across camps. Former foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon once observed that India’s diplomacy is about “keeping options open, not sitting on the fence.”

India’s trade with Russia, particularly discounted energy imports, helped cushion domestic inflation during a period of global volatility. At the same time, India’s expanding strategic cooperation with Europe underscores that its Russia relationship does not preclude deeper Western engagement. This duality is increasingly accepted as a feature, not a flaw, of India’s foreign policy.

Security, Indo-Pacific, and Quiet Convergence

Beyond trade, security cooperation is emerging as a quieter but significant pillar of India–Germany relations. Discussions around defence manufacturing, maritime security, and cyber resilience are expected to gain traction. Key among these is the anticipated push for co-production of Type 214 submarines under a USD 8 billion deal between ThyssenKrupp and Mazagon Dock, underscoring Germany’s growing interest in defence cooperation with India’s maritime sector. Germany’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific aligns with India’s own regional priorities, even as both countries maintain different threat perceptions.

Digital commentary around the visit suggests a recognition that Europe, led by Germany, is recalibrating its strategic outlook and moving from normative diplomacy toward interest-based engagement. India fits naturally into this recalibration as a democratic power with scale, market depth, and geopolitical weight.

A senior German official recently described the Indo-Pacific as “no longer a distant theatre, but a shared responsibility.”

A Message to the World

The broader message of the Merz visit lies in what it signals to multiple audiences simultaneously. To Europe, it conveys that India is a dependable long-term partner. To Russia, it signals continuity without dependency. To China, it reflects India’s expanding global options. And to the wider Global South, it reinforces the idea that strategic autonomy remains viable even in an era of hardened blocs.

India’s diplomatic journey from Moscow to Berlin is therefore less about movement between capitals and more about movement in posture. Strategic autonomy today is no longer passive non-alignment; it is the capacity to host, negotiate, and cooperate with competing powers from a position of confidence.

The visit also advances G4 UNSC reform efforts, with Germany’s backing amplifying India’s multilateral voice. This comes at a time when global governance reforms remain stalled. This quiet geopolitical alignment positions India as Europe’s anchor in reforming institutions for a multipolar world. In a world growing more binary by the day, India is quietly making a different case that influence lies not in choosing sides, but in retaining the confidence to engage all.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is an Associate Professor at Atal Bihari Vajpayee School of Management and Entrepreneurship, Jawaharlal Nehru University