The Dividend and the Dilemma

Demography is the study of various trends and processes associated with population dynamics. It encompasses changes in population size, patterns of births, deaths, and migration, as well as the structure and composition of the population, including sex ratio and age groups. The study of demography has a rich history, with contributions from ancient scholars such as Confucius, Aristotle, Plato, and Kautilya.

Significance of Demographic Studies

Demographic studies are rooted in data collection and enumeration, including censuses and surveys. These studies have far-reaching implications for the economy, society, polity, and policy-making processes. By analysing population trends, policymakers can assess the pace of economic growth, understand the impact of population growth on social life and the environment, and make informed decisions.

In democratic countries like India, population data play a crucial role in electoral processes. The Election Commission uses census data to demarcate constituencies, while political parties rely on demographic data to prepare election manifestos. Policymakers also utilise population data to create developmental maps and strategies for the country.

Demographic Transition: A Global Phenomenon

The world is currently undergoing a significant demographic transition, characterised by slowing population growth and shifting age structures. The proportion of youth is declining, while the elderly population is increasing. Developed countries are experiencing ageing populations, and developing regions, including Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, are facing similar challenges.

Global Experiences and India’s Opportunity

The demographic dividend phase, characterised by a working-age population that can economically support both the elderly and the young, has been a catalyst for rapid economic growth in several countries. Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore entered this phase in the 1960s and quickly emerged as developed nations. China’s demographic dividend coincided with economic reforms, fueling sustained growth for over three decades. Brazil’s experience, though marked by growth, was short-lived, and the Arab world’s failure to create employment opportunities for its youth contributed to the Arab Spring.

India’s Demographic Dividend: Challenges and Opportunities

India is currently in the midst of its demographic dividend phase, expected to last until 2055. With 62.5% of its population in the working-age group (15-59 years), India is one of the youngest nations in an ageing world. The country has already witnessed explosive growth from 2003-12 and 2021-23, but has failed to sustain it, generating fewer employment opportunities. This raises concerns about youth discontent and potential demographic disaster, as seen in neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

The growing youth unrest, exemplified by the recent upsurge in Ladakh, serves as a warning signal. The Indian government’s plan to form a Demography Mission is a timely initiative, aimed at harnessing the demographic dividend through a rational and effective development plan. The rising influence of Gen Z underscores the need for targeted strategies to address the aspirations and concerns of the youth, ensuring India’s demographic dividend translates into sustainable growth and prosperity.

Demography Commission: A Step Forward or a Political Agenda?

The Prime Minister’s announcement of a Demography Commission has sparked debate, with opposition parties alleging hidden political motives. The Commission’s objective, as stated in the budget, is to address challenges arising from population growth and demographic changes, aligning with the vision of Vikshit Bharat (Developed India). However, the timing of the announcement, amidst allegations of electoral roll revisions targeting immigrants, has raised concerns about potential misuse.

Critics argue that the Commission may undermine India’s constitutional vision of composite culture, fraternity, and coexistence. They cite Dr Ambedkar’s warning that democracy would fail without fraternity, implying that the Commission’s true intent might be to fuel divisions rather than address genuine demographic concerns.

While the Commission is a step forward in addressing demographic shifts, its success hinges on transparency and dispelling misgivings. The government must ensure that the Commission’s objectives are clear, inclusive, and respectful of India’s diverse cultural fabric, rather than being perceived as a tool for political gain.

India’s strength lies in its unity in diversity, reinforced by historical, cultural, social, and political traditions. The government’s task is to ensure the Demography Commission addresses genuine concerns while alleviating minority fears. The Commission is crucial for harnessing the demographic dividend and achieving sustainable development goals, which are essential for building a developed India. The youth revolts in South Asian countries serve as a warning: leveraging the demographic dividend is imperative to avoid disaster and ensure prosperity.

Views expressed are personal. Felix Raj is the Vice Chancellor, Prabhat Kumar Datta is an Adjunct Professor, both at St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata