Tarique’s Test of Statecraft

In the just-concluded (February 12) parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) returned to power with a landslide victory after remaining in political oblivion for nearly two decades. The victory is decisive, and it would appear that the BNP has come to stay, at least in the near future, under 60-year-old party supremo Tarique Rahman, who is the son of late President General Ziaur Rahman and late Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia. Now that the stage is set for Tarique Rahman to assume the mantle of premiership, the world—especially India and its neighbouring countries—is intently watching how he steers the political course, which has been very turbulent over the last one and a half years in the aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s ouster from power.

As of now, Tarique Rahman is treading with caution, as he has to perform a very delicate balancing act to address the heap of internal challenges the country is facing, as well as to deal with challenges emanating from external quarters. It is evident that the BNP has come back to power because politically sensitive Bangladeshis did not want the post-Hasina political vacuum to continue for a long time, and this void witnessed a deteriorating law-and-order situation and a sense of uncertainty. A huge sense of hope has also been raised among the people, who, hitherto distraught with the misrule of the interim government, are now heaving a sigh of relief and are eagerly looking forward to some respite under the Tarique-led new dispensation, which will be in place very soon.

In order to squarely and comprehensively handle the prevailing complex situation, Tarique may have to take a little more time in finalising the Cabinet. He may already have made his choices; however, experts suggest that he should take additional time in giving shape to the new Cabinet. He may take the oath immediately—as soon as the process permits—with a small Cabinet consisting of the best among those he has already decided upon. As for the rest, he may take his time, which will give the prospective Prime Minister a suitable opportunity to fine-tune his final selection. This is crucial because the new government has an enormous task at hand. Bangladesh is at a critical phase of development. With fragmented institutions, high levels of corruption, and rampant inefficiency, the emerging Cabinet will have to play a far more effective and insightful role than a routine one.

According to Bangladesh watchers, there is also intense partisanship in the bureaucracy, law enforcement agencies, and other institutions. Such a phenomenon has a long past, and overcoming it quickly will be difficult. But Tarique Rahman’s government may have an advantage. His declaration—“I have a plan,” which he made public during the presentation of the BNP’s manifesto—gives the country confidence that the new BNP government will consist of doers, not talkers. People who will work closely with him are already known to him; they have been tested and are trusted. However, he must also remember that, however closely he knows them, they must be competent and efficient enough to execute the plan they helped him formulate.

These challenges also include, very importantly, a forthright assurance to Hindu minorities that they will be protected and that their places of worship will not be vandalised. This seems imperative, as soon after the last regime fell on August 5, 2024, there was a sudden spurt in communal violence targeting Hindus, including the usurpation of property and desecration of places of worship. Similar efforts must be made to assure other minorities, including Shias and Ahmadiyyas, of the safety and security of their dargahs. In other words, Tarique Rahman has to keep a close eye on fanatics, as in the previous regime, a rise in communal frenzy was noticed, with a trend towards religious fundamentalism. This needs to be curbed on priority.

The BNP under Tarique Rahman must also exercise abundant caution in dealing with the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which has proved that it is now a resurgent force. This is more than visible in its recent tally of securing 77 seats—a figure unprecedented but not altogether surprising. Its remarkable performance in constituencies in the bordering districts with India cannot be lost sight of. This is a primary concern for India, but equally a significant priority for Tarique Rahman and his team.

This concern is being flagged because Jamaat’s campaign focused heavily on issues of sovereignty and criticism of India’s influence. In border constituencies, this message resonated. Voters who felt frustrated over long-standing bilateral issues were more open to strong language, and the party concentrated its messaging carefully in these regions. In contrast, the BNP adopted a more moderate tone on India. While critical of certain policies, it did not emphasise confrontation as strongly. In tight contests, this difference cost the BNP several seats in border areas. This pattern is visible in the distribution of Jamaat alliance victories: around 70 per cent of its seats came from Khulna, Rangpur, and Rajshahi divisions, which include many border districts. However, these three divisions do not carry the largest share of parliamentary seats overall. Dhaka and Chattogram together hold about 43 per cent of the total seats. Therefore, even though Jamaat secured concentrated strength in border-heavy divisions, it could not convert that into national majority control. At the same time, the alliance failed completely in Sylhet city and lost 14 out of 16 seats in the Chattogram division. This shows that anti-India rhetoric was not effective everywhere. In regions with strong Sufi traditions and shrine-centred religious culture, voters reacted differently. Attacks on mazars, khankahs, and Sufi gatherings created fear among communities that follow these traditions. Many voters in these areas believed that BNP candidates were safer and more stable choices compared to Jamaat–NCP alliance figures. In effect, local religious culture overruled broader ideological messaging. This is important.

Meanwhile, it speaks well of Tarique Rahman’s political maturity—and perhaps a tactful initiative—that he met Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman as well as National Citizen Party (NCP) leader Nahid Islam soon after the poll verdict. He should capitalise on these meetings by trying to prevail upon the Jamaat leadership to keep a check on communal forces, lest they vilify and dilute the emerging promises for a new Bangladesh.

As regards Bangladesh’s relations with India, New Delhi has shown diplomatic correctness and prudence by reaching out soon after the BNP’s victory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Tarique Rahman, and the Speaker of the Lok Sabha, Om Birla, is set to attend the swearing-in ceremony in Dhaka along with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. For his part, Tarique Rahman was conspicuous in refraining from any caustic remarks against India during the entire election campaign. This means a lot. The invitation to Indian leadership to attend the oath ceremony is indeed a positive gesture on the part of Bangladesh.

Now that both sides seem keen to reset bilateral ties, India, in due course, should urge Bangladesh to avoid repeating past instances of harbouring or facilitating any logistical support to forces detrimental to Indian security interests. These particularly include North-East insurgents and other hostile elements. This concern is being re-emphasised because, in the past, during BNP regimes, Indian insurgents freely used Bangladeshi soil for their nefarious designs. Similarly, India must step up its diplomatic engagement to pre-empt any Chinese intrusion into Indo-Bangladesh bilateral ties, particularly through interference in the Teesta water-sharing issue and related matters.

Above all, India has to remain extremely watchful of Pakistani intentions to further woo Bangladesh, especially in areas concerning India’s security. The activities of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the past—targeting Indian security interests using Bangladesh as a launching pad—are well known. The new regime under Tarique Rahman must ensure that such developments do not recur in the interest of Indo-Bangladesh bonhomie. It is a good opportunity, though difficult, to repair ties. Yet, it is certainly not impossible.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius