Democratic Reboot

The recent elections in Bangladesh, catalysed by a powerful Gen Z uprising that unseated long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, mark a pivotal moment in electoral history, not just for Bangladesh, but for nations grappling with similar political dynamics. This election signals a potential shift towards democratic transition—a much-anticipated return to competitive politics after years of instability. The uprising itself was a vivid reflection of the Bangladeshi populace’s exhaustion with the Awami League government’s perceived intolerance and its reliance on coercive institutions to maintain legitimacy.

Despite the challenging circumstances, voter turnout was a respectable 59.44 per cent. The election was also a national record-setter, featuring an unprecedented 2,000 candidates from at least 50 political parties. At the heart of the Gen Z movement was a clarion call for stronger democracy, reduced corruption, and expanded opportunities. Their revolution sought not merely a change in government, but a fundamental reclamation of political space for the people.

The Shadow of Violence and Troubling Trends

Tragically, the lead-up to the elections was marred by violence, with 16 political activists losing their lives. Polling day itself saw nine deaths amidst bomb explosions, clashes between party activists, and isolated incidents of violence—a sobering reminder of growing electoral violence in many South Asian countries.

Beyond the immediate turmoil, the election results have brought to light some critical concerns. The blanket ban on the Awami League from contesting the elections has sparked debate, even among those who welcomed its downfall. While the defeat of an unpopular ruler is a healthy democratic sign, its legitimacy is truly strengthened by credible competition. Another striking issue was the poor participation of women, drawing criticism, especially given Bangladesh’s one-third representation of women in local bodies. This stands as a clear challenge to gender justice and sustainable development goals, demanding urgent attention.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s Resounding Victory

The huge victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) offers a clear and transparent public verdict on the 15-year Hasina era. Significantly, the success of 60-year-old Rahman marks a remarkable turnaround for a figure who only returned to Bangladesh in December after 17 years of self-imposed exile in London. Despite his prolonged absence from Dhaka’s political life, voters seemingly prioritised the immediate restoration of democratic rule. His familial ties to a prominent political lineage in the country may have also subtly influenced voter choice.

In a country of 170 million people, where Hindus constitute about eight per cent of the population, four candidates from minority communities, including two Hindus, secured victories under the ruling BNP. The strong support base of Jamaati forces, particularly in bordering areas as indicated by their vote share, presents a complex challenge for the new government, necessitating dialogue to foster improved relations between Bangladesh and its neighbours.

A Unique Election, Formidable Tasks Ahead

The uniqueness of this election lies in its compressed political transition, paired with a national referendum on institutional reforms—the widely supported 84-point July National Charter, which garnered approximately 79 per cent of voter approval. This charter, developed by six reform commissions under the Interim Government, aims to overhaul the constitution, electoral system, judiciary, public administration, police, and anti-corruption bodies. Preliminary referendum results overwhelmingly show a public desire for constitutional reform to safeguard against future authoritarianism. Voters also championed student-demanded constitutional changes, including a two-term limit for prime ministers, the establishment of a bicameral parliament, and greater representation for women.

Elections: A Demand for Governability

These elections unfolded against a backdrop of widespread public distress, characterised by surging inflation and shrinking democratic spaces, eroding trust in public institutions. For most Bangladeshis, this was less an ideological battle and more a fundamental demand for governability. This demand encompassed neighbourhood security, relief from inflation, precarious livelihoods, increased employment, and institutional strengthening. Bangladesh has indeed crossed an important threshold by successfully holding an election under difficult circumstances and yielding a decisive outcome.

Challenges and Critical Tasks for the New Government

Rahman’s government faces immense internal and external challenges. The immediate and critical task is to establish good governance, addressing the persistent crisis that has plagued Bangladesh. The students who fueled the protests explicitly called for inclusive and transparent governance, an end to political coercion, and administrative corruption.

Firstly, the BNP government must swiftly demonstrate its commitment to constitutional and institutional reforms. Secondly, Rahman needs to assure the electorate, through his actions, that executive overreach will not be tolerated. Thirdly, rampant inflation and job scarcity have created severe hardship for a significant portion of the population. Containing inflation and generating employment, which will require international cooperation, must be top priorities. Addressing challenges in trade relations with India will also be crucial, requiring goodwill and open discussion.

The post-transition period has seen significant strain on law and order, reflecting both institutional fragility and heightened public expectations. Numerous civil society groups continue to advocate for resolving citizens’ grievances, underscoring the government’s need to foster more public spaces for citizen-centric administration. Much will hinge on the BNP’s ability to translate its electoral mandate into effective governance, particularly in tackling unemployment, strengthening institutional accountability, and restoring investor confidence.

The BNP’s ambitious promise of a trillion-dollar economy by 2034 necessitates effective governance and the restoration of international investor confidence. While the BNP’s past governance record has been marked by corruption and repression, the spirit of the 2024 revolution and the pervasive thirst for political change in Bangladeshi society will undoubtedly exert pressure for cleaner and more accountable governance.

Finally, Bangladesh must strategically reconstruct its international and diplomatic relations within the evolving global order, strengthening ties with neighbouring countries like China and India. The outcome of these elections is also expected to influence political rhetoric in nearby Indian states such as Assam and West Bengal, which are soon heading to the polls. The new government will need to carefully address issues like cross-border migration, demographic change, and border governance to ensure a healthy relationship with India.

The Jamaat-e-Islami, a party that opposed Bangladesh’s 1971 independence, achieved its best-ever performance, securing 31.76 per cent of votes and 68 seats. Given its historical stance and opposition to gender justice, the new government faces the complex task of engaging with and integrating this party into a governance agenda that strives for a better future for Bangladesh. Furthermore, Bangladesh, which already has quotas in local bodies, might consider implementing similar quotas for women in its national legislature, following the example of other nations.

Views expressed are personal. Fr. John Felix Raj is the VC, and Prabhat Kumar Datta is Adjunct Professor, Xavier Law School; both at St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata