Pressing the Reset Button

There are three key reasons countries need to electrify their vehicle fleet. One is climate change. The transport sector guzzles massive amounts of oil—petrol and diesel—and globally contributes roughly 15 per cent of the annual carbon dioxide emissions. Zero-emission vehicles, or electric vehicles (EVs), replace oil with electricity, generated ideally in renewable energy plants, and are hence seen as the solution. The second reason, which is more important for “our” cities, is that replacing petrol and diesel vehicles with zero-emission vehicles will reduce local pollution. And third, it will save us valuable foreign exchange as oil consumption reduces. All of these are valid reasons to act. But these alone cannot usher in the change that is needed. We need a reset; a review of what we are doing and why, so that we can move not just the vehicle electrification agenda but get the benefits that are so desperately required.

Let us take our cities first, where electrification coalesces into double-triple benefits by reducing toxic air pollution, saving on foreign exchange and providing co-benefits of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. All good. But only if we are clear about the intent of policy and then drive its outcome—deliberately and at scale. It was in 2019 that the NITI Aayog laid out India’s EV ambition—by 2030, EV sales penetration would be 70 per cent of all new commercial cars, 30 per cent of private cars, 40 per cent of buses and 80 per cent of two- and three-wheeled vehicles. We are still far from this—as of mid-2025, the only segment that is surging is three-wheelers, with close to 60 per cent of new registration being EVs. These are mostly non-branded, locally built three-wheelers that crowd roads but provide an affordable commute. The rest of the EV fleet transition is too little to speak about; 5-6 per cent of the new registrations of cars, two-wheelers or even buses are EVs. This makes no dent at all in reducing pollution or oil imports or decarbonisation.

This is when we know that vehicles are the top contributors to the toxins we breathe. The problem is not just with the different categories of vehicles that add to pollution, but also with their numbers on the road that add to congestion and in turn to pollution. So, the twin action agenda for air pollution control is to make the transition to clean vehicles and to reduce the vehicle numbers. When Delhi transitioned to compressed natural gas (CNG) in the early 2000s, it targeted gross polluting vehicles such as buses, taxis and auto-rickshaws. This category of public and commercial vehicles has the highest mileage of travel in any city, particularly Delhi, and the science of pollution is clear that the longer the travel, the greater the emissions. In addition, a public subsidy given for replacing the old with newer CNG vehicles was directed towards upgrading the public transport system—providing space for people to move and not vehicles.

But Delhi’s story went wrong—a policy mistake we must not repeat as it negates the gains of clean air and wastes public investment. Delhi, in the two decades post its CNG revolution, has not been able to sufficiently improve its public transport so that it restricts the growth of vehicles on the road. Delhi adds some 1,800 new personal vehicles each day; of which over 500 are private cars. The country on the whole adds over 10,000 private cars onto its roads every day. This implosion of vehicles on our roads, despite all the new flyovers and road networks, has meant that we are stuck in traffic and speeds are down. My colleagues at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) analysed hourly travel time data, extracted using Google API and found that during weekdays, Delhi witnesses an average speed reduction of 41 per cent during morning peak hours and 56 per cent during evening peaks. The correlation between hours spent in traffic and growing air pollution is well established. But the story gets worse; another study by my colleagues found that buses were stuck in the same traffic and these chronic delays meant that ridership goes down as people shift to more dependable private transport. The Delhi metro, which has an incredible reach now, is also losing because of the lack of last-mile connectivity and its cost and hassles.

So, the way ahead is to be focussed and deliberate in our policy. The National Clean Air Plan (NCAP), which targets all cities with high air pollution, must converge towards the twin goals of cleaner vehicles and lesser vehicles. It is not enough to count only the number of new electric buses—which is crucial—but also its modal share in traffic so that each city plans to scale up public transport and make it possible for us to spend less time and money on commute; more quality time at home; and, most critically, breathe air that does not make us ill. This is not all. The question is: do we really need private EVs in India and the rest of the world? I will discuss this next time. DTE

The writer is the Director-General of CSE and editor of Down To Earth. Views expressed are personal