Pakistan’s Security Mirage

Terror menace in Pakistan refuses to go away and, on the contrary, it has come back again, recurring with deadly ferocity. The latest lethal terror attack took place in the form of a powerful explosion at Khadija Tul Kubra Shia Mosque in Islamabad’s Tarlai Kalan area during the Friday prayers of February 6. At least thirty-one people were killed and more than a dozen grievously injured in the attack, rattling Pakistan’s entire security establishment. According to reliable sources, the explosion was a daring suicide attack. Very significantly, the target was a Shia mosque, which confirms that sectarian violence continues to hit Pakistan despite all the tall claims made by the political leadership.

Later, a splinter faction of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s group in Pakistan claimed responsibility on its Telegram channel, releasing an image showing the attacker. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said the attacker had Afghanistan connections. Security officials claimed that several key arrests have been made, including close family members of the suicide bomber in Peshawar and Karachi. They did not, however, clarify whether there was evidence of their involvement in the attack.

It is interesting to note that Islamabad had seen a relative lull in violence in the past years, but things have changed in recent months. The bombing marked the second major attack in the capital city since a suicide blast targeted a district court in November 2025. Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst and expert on conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said ISIL’s Pakistan branch, referred to as Islamic State – Pakistan Province (ISPP), claimed responsibility for what appears to be its deadliest operation in the country since its formation in May 2019. Since its inception, ISPP has carried out nearly 100 attacks, more than two-thirds of which occurred in Balochistan.

It is equally important to note that Pakistan has witnessed a steady rise in terror violence over the past three years. Data released by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) for 2025 recorded 699 attacks nationwide, a 34 per cent increase compared with the previous year, and the same has been comprehensively written and analysed in these columns not very long ago. Islamabad has repeatedly blamed the Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021. On their part, the Afghan Taliban condemned the latest mosque bombing, consistently denying sheltering anti-Pakistan elements on its soil.

Meanwhile, a UN report reveals that the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has ties with both the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISIL’s affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of groups with distinct but common agendas. Their complicity is insinuated in these terror attacks. Further, just days ago, the Pakistan military concluded a weeklong security operation in the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming the deaths of 216 persons in targeted offensives. Yet, this daring attack took place.

Fahad Nabeel, who heads the Islamabad-based consultancy “Geopolitical Insights”, stated that Pakistan is likely to maintain its hardened stance towards Kabul, citing what he described as Afghanistan’s failure to act against anti-Pakistan groups. He also added that officials would probably share preliminary findings of the investigation and point to a possible Afghan link. According to him, the upward trajectory of terrorist attacks witnessed last year is expected to continue this year. It would be of academic interest that Shias make up more than 20 per cent of Pakistan’s population of about 250 million. The country has experienced periodic bouts of sectarian violence, particularly in Kurram district in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, which borders Afghanistan.

In the meantime, reacting angrily and displaying angst and frustration, several major media outlets in Pakistan have assessed that this horrific terror attack in Islamabad on February 6 has made one thing clear – whatever Pakistan is doing to combat terrorism is not working, or not working as well as it should. Synchronised terrorism in Balochistan a few days earlier also raised similar red flags. They further reckon that Afghanistan is the hub from where the terror emanates. All terror outfits have allegedly found shelter in Afghanistan, from where they freely plot and execute their attacks at the very heart of Pakistan. Pakistan has launched limited strikes, in vain, on their camps across the border, eliminating a few leaders and neutralising hundreds of their foot soldiers, and yet the problem persists. Some say it may even be worsening. Pakistan, as per the experts, can no longer afford this state of affairs. Combating, degrading, and defeating terror should now be Pakistan’s top priority, according to them.

Pakistan has long accused militant groups in Afghanistan of being responsible for violence in the country. Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attack in a post on social media. Tarlai Kalan, once a semi-rural settlement, has expanded rapidly in recent years as Islamabad’s population has grown. Residents said the mosque served as a focal point for the local Shiite community, particularly during weekly prayers. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has condemned the attack, expressing sorrow over the loss of life and offering condolences to the families of the victims.

Continuing its tirade against the non-stop terror attacks, Dawn, the prominent newspaper, says that after every terrorist atrocity, Pakistan is left with more questions than answers. This is also true in the case of February 6’s barbaric suicide bombing of an imambargah in Islamabad during Friday prayers. Interestingly, the Pakistani Defence Minister has said Afghanistan and India are responsible, but a deeper probe is required, as Pakistan has had to confront home-grown sectarian terrorism for the past four decades now. Officials say that the suspected bomber had travelled to Afghanistan, and initial findings suggest links to the Islamic State (IS). Such a remark by a top Pakistan media group also dismisses the baseless allegations of India’s hand in the attack. Hence, Pakistan needs to look inwards. Various theories are being advanced by state functionaries, some of whom believe that the bombing could have been a response to the recent action against terrorists in Balochistan, though Baloch separatist groups are not usually known to carry out sectarian assaults.

It must be asked how the terrorists were able to carry out an attack in what is supposed to be Pakistan’s most secure city. No doubt, it is nearly impossible to prevent a suicide bomber from setting off explosives when he decides to strike. But better intelligence can be pressed into service to foil such attacks. It is also a fact that while the more desperate sectarian groups in Pakistan, such as the banned Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, have been largely defanged, many of their political supporters remain active, free to take out rallies and indulge in hate speech. Again, there is a frontal observation by the Pakistani media that the intelligence machinery has failed time and again. This failure is being questioned now rather loudly.

The experts further opine that the State’s counterterrorism policy will remain ineffective until these groups are neutralised. Such groups, including the banned Ahle Sunnat Wal Jama’at (ASWJ), share a worldview with the TTP, which the state has declared the mortal enemy of Pakistan. Hence, it is necessary to take action against the political and ideological backers of violent sectarian groups in order to close the door on further violence in the country, as observed by security professionals.

Pakistan is in a quandary. The trilateral defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and other military alliances, will not work unless the internal intelligence and security machineries are strengthened. Blaming India at every convenient moment will not help unless inherent systemic weaknesses are addressed.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius