No time to lose

According to climate scientists, COVID-19 pandemic has proved that human health, animal health and environmental health are intrinsically related, as stable climate and rich biodiversity form the foundations of mother Earth. When disturbed by indiscriminate anthropogenic activities, ecosystems collapse, leading to weakening of the resilience of earth systems. Unfortunately, the mission to save mother Earth is eclipsed by the apathy of both the governments and the citizens. Though the governments appreciate the need to reduce emissions to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, they are not resolute in their action. People, on the other hand, are yet to be fully aware of the disastrous consequences of global warming. In 2009, a team of scientists headed by Johan Rockström identified nine important processes that regulate the stability and resilience of earth systems, and suggested maintaining boundaries for anthropogenic activities in order to avoid irreversible environmental changes.

Firstly, stratospheric ozone depletion was proved by the discovery of an Antarctic ozone hole. Thanks to the action taken after the Montreal protocol, it is believed to be safe for now, but if emissions continue at the current rate, we might cross the boundary soon. Second is the loss of biodiversity and extinctions due to high demand for food, water, and natural resources. Third is chemical pollution and the release of novel entities such as synthetic organic pollutants, heavy metal compounds and radioactive materials which endanger the living organisms. Fourth is climate change, as earth now is passing 390 PPMV CO2 in the atmosphere. Loss of summer polar sea ice and weakening of terrestrial carbon sinks prove that the tipping point is already crossed. The fifth boundary relates to the ocean acidification process that has altered ocean chemistry and decreased the PH of seawater leading to dearth of carbonate ions that are necessary for many marine species.

Freshwater consumption and global hydrological cycle constitute the sixth boundary. It is feared that by 2050, about half a billion people will be subjected to water-stress. Change of land system is the seventh boundary, as indiscriminate conversion of forest lands, grasslands, and wetlands into agricultural lands reduced biodiversity and affected bio cycling of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. The eighth boundary is nitrogen and phosphorus flow into the biosphere and oceans due to industrial and agricultural activities which jeopardise the marine and aquatic systems. The final boundary pertains to atmospheric aerosol loading which plays a vital role in the hydrological cycle through cloud formation and atmospheric circulation. Severe disturbances in monsoon systems and climate regimes observed across the world prove that atmospheric pollution crossed the tipping point. Polluted aerosols are found to be responsible for about eight lakh premature deaths annually.

Respecting planetary boundaries will guarantee us nutrients, water, forests, biodiversity and climate — the five crucial components for the survival of mother Earth. Climate scientists feel that we have already crossed the tipping points of four of the nine boundaries — climate, forest loss, nutrients and biodiversity. With regards to the rest of the five boundaries, though we are in a safe zone for now, it will not be long before we enter the danger zone if we fail to act in time. Accelerated ice melt in Greenland and Sweden, deforestation of Amazon rainforest, bleaching of more than 50 per cent of coral reef systems between 2016 and 17 — all indicate the irreversible damage done to the ecosystem and environment. Intensive monoculture has led to decline in insect population, on which 70 per cent of crop species depend for pollination. High temperatures and months of drought in Australia triggered bushfires, burning 50 million acres of land and causing death to three billion animals, 1.43 mill mammals, 2.46 million reptiles, 180 million birds and 51 million frogs. Description of the catastrophic effects of climate change is no less heart-rending, as failure to act in time is no more pardonable. If anything acquires utmost priority today, it is saving the mother earth from global warming.

COP 26 at Glasgow reiterated the Paris accord of maintaining 1.5 degrees Celsius global temperature through reduction of emissions. But if the current state of affairs continues it could be only about 2.4 degrees Celsius until 2030. With regards to coal which is responsible for 40 per cent of emissions, members agreed to 'phase down' rather than 'phase out'. It was agreed upon to help poor countries with a trillion-dollar fund in switching over to clean energy but the action taken on previous agreement that rich countries would provide USD 100 bn annually by 2020 to poor countries was not discussed. Leaders have agreed to subsidies for 'phase out' but no specific timelines were spelt out. As usual, the US and China, which are responsible for major emissions of CO2, 'pledged their troth' to cooperate in switching to clean energy and methane emissions. Countries have agreed to stop deforestation and cut 30 per cent of methane emissions by 2030 but the biggest emitters — Russia and China — didn't even attend the summit. Climate talks usually end up expressing concerns on issues rather than reassuring individual commitments to act earnestly. Like the Paris accord, the Glasgow summit too didn't spell out who does what, when and how to reduce emissions.

Scientists say that the window is still open and we can achieve a more resilient future, provided we balance our anthropogenic activities with various earth systems within the planetary boundaries. To achieve 1.5 degrees Celsius, we must emit less than 300 tonnes, which is cutting down emissions exponentially by 6-7 per cent a year, or reducing half of the emissions in a decade. A dream too ambitious to achieve! Bending the emission curve is possible only through planned self-policed action by all nations. Responsibilities can be shared between the rich and poor nations as per their respective capabilities. To be precise, mitigation should be the priority for developed countries as they contribute the lion's share of emissions while the developing nations can do well by focussing on switching to clean energy, just transition and adaptation strategies. While expansion of renewable energy programmes helps reduce CO2, intensive afforestation is extremely important in order to draw down the carbon from the atmosphere. Other immediate measures can include recycling of waste towards optimum use of resources, change of food habits, reduction of dependence on fossil fuel etc. All decisions must have the survival and stability of mother Earth as the focal point. The decade 2020-30 is decisive, and all nations must act unitedly. However, state action alone is not sufficient. People's participation is equally important, which can only be made sure by creating widespread awareness about 'climate emergency'.

The writer is a former Addl. Chief Secretary of Chhattisgarh. Views expressed are personal