Misaligned priorities

Maldives' shortsightedness in distancing itself from India after its new President, Mohamed Muizzu, took office at the helm of the island nation on November 17 this year is evident. Withdrawing from India strategically or suddenly pulling out from the warmth of the cocoon of India's protected shield is one thing, but getting close to India's adversary China just to shift Maldives' stance markedly against India is indeed a self-goal being scored by Maldives. This is a self-goal because the new President, however suave or Western-educated, lacks the political astuteness and instincts of a seasoned statesman. He ignored learning lessons from the annals of recent history, such as how neighbouring Sri Lanka walked into the debt trap of Chinese loans, allurements, and deceptive overtures, leading to a complete economic collapse and eventually political uncertainty, forcing the President to flee the country.

Even if we disregard, for argument's sake, Maldives’ growing nexus with China, fresh reports suggesting Maldives walking extra miles to reach out to Turkey belie all sound reasoning, bereft of any political farsightedness. Turkey is close to Pakistan, and their bilateral association, as many experts describe it, is an axis of evil. Both have joined hands in the last few years, targeting India to the extent that Turkish President Erdogan has often offered Pakistan to take the active help of Turkish armed forces to fight in Kashmir, expressing "solidarity" with Pakistan. Turkey then conveniently forgets its own military excesses and adventurism in Armenia as well as in Cyprus and Greece. Again, Maldives' Muizzu is at a loss to learn from the pages of history.

Expanding further on Maldives' latest outreach to Turkey, it may be pointed out that Maldives has decided to open an embassy in the Turkish capital, Ankara, soon. Further, on the way to the recently held Cop 28 summit in the UAE, Muizzu made a stopover in Turkey, apparently giving a signal that Maldives is wooing Turkey to reinforce the relationship. The circle of an unholy political conglomerate between Turkey, China, and Pakistan with Maldives is fast emerging, giving an obvious hint to India of their togetherness. The message is loud and clear!

Meanwhile, reliable sources in the capital Male reveal that the High Commissioner of Pakistan to Maldives, Vice Admiral (Retired) Mohammad Faiyaz Gilani, is "guiding" the new Maldivian dispensation to increase its closeness to Pakistan, China, and Turkey. A few analysts describe the new moves as Gilani's brainchild. This demonstrates Pakistan's rising grip over Maldives, aiming to wean India away from the island nation.

China's persistent efforts to keep Maldives within its sphere are evident, as Chinese Special Envoy to Maldives, Shen Yiqin, attended the swearing-in ceremony of President Muizzu with a large delegation. This clearly shows China's continued geopolitical interest in Maldives. On the sidelines of the swearing-in, Shen Yiqin also emphasised the "significance" of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other bilateral issues. In summary, from the word ‘go’ in the new dispensation, China is attempting to bring Maldives into its fold and keep India at a distance.

In the meantime, two other developments emanating from the Maldivian government, at the express behest of President Muizzu, have come to light which do not seem politically palatable to Indian strategic interests. Firstly, the latest announcement indicates that Maldives will not undertake hydrographic surveys with India, signalling a deliberate move to sever any Indian cooperation. Previously, the Maldivian Coast Guard and the Indian Naval Hydrographic Office routinely conducted hydrographic surveys to create small and large-scale charts necessary for growing maritime activities and businesses in Maldives.

The second setback is the declaration by Maldivian Minister for Islamic Affairs, Mohammad Shaheem Ali Saeed, stating that nine Maldivian Imams have been chosen for PhDs in Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, with no mention of India. The Minister also claimed that Imams from Maldives are well-versed in Islamic jurisprudence. This exclusion of India from the exercise marks a shift from a policy when India was involved in many joint collaborations.

In a related development, the Maldivian Under Secretary for Public Policy, Mohammad Firazul, disclosed that the new President Muizzu’s 14-week road map includes a policy to terminate the "secret" bilateral agreements made by the previous Maldives' government. Such a blatant statement testifies to the growing suspicion that all anti-India statements are being prompted and scripted by China and Pakistan.

Another significant feature worth mentioning is Maldives' conspicuous absence from the November 6/7 security conclave of the National Security Advisors held in Mauritius. India, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius participated, but due to obvious reasons, Maldives chose to stay away. On the contrary, however, the Vice President of Maldives attended the China India Ocean Region Forum conference in China.

Crucially, Maldives continues to pursue the policy of "India Out", and it is still ongoing, with 70 technical personnel from the uniform services asked to leave the island despite a high level of political and diplomatic activity and persuasion. These personnel were overseeing the functioning of India-gifted radars and surveillance systems, in addition to Indian warships patrolling in the territorial waters focusing on the economic zone, which is infested with narcotics trade and illegal movements.

It’s equally pertinent to mention here that unlike Muizzu’s predecessor Solih, who had invited India’s Prime Minister for the swearing-in ceremony, Muizzu conspicuously lacked the courtesy in extending an invitation to the Indian PM.

All these developments notwithstanding, many of them unsavoury, India has displayed ample sense of maturity and political restraint by continuing to engage Maldives. Muizzu’s love for China is surely temporary. Pakistan too will exhaust its overtures after some time, and when the honeymooning is over, Maldives has to turn towards India to protect its maritime interests, contain its growing religious extremism, and face other security challenges, as it has been doing in the past, including salvaging President Gayyoom from the mercenaries’-led takeover in the ‘80s.

Muizzu’s political calculations are likely to be proved wrong in the not so distant future when Maldives would realise what went wrong. Till then, the current dispensation will breathe heavily, as Turkey, China, and Pakistan cannot measure up to the extent of sincerity and trust displayed by India towards Maldives throughout the different regimes.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal