Lasting Truce?

In a swift move, ostensibly under pressure from US President Donald Trump, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim disclosed that Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an “immediate and unconditional” ceasefire in an effort to resolve deadly border clashes. Acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet met on July 28 for ceasefire talks at Anwar’s official residence in Malaysia’s administrative capital, Putrajaya. The Malaysian Prime Minister later claimed that it was a very positive development and that the results would certainly augur well for Cambodia and Thailand. The talks between the two warring Southeast Asian countries, hosted by Anwar, were aimed at halting fighting over a border standoff that had taken 35 lives and displaced more than 270,000 from both sides.

Anwar Ibrahim further disclosed that US President Donald Trump and China’s leaders were in close contact with the parties from the contesting countries, as well as Malaysia, to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. This seems a vital first step towards de-escalation and the restoration of peace and security, according to analysts. Hun Manet from Cambodia said he had a very good meeting and a very good result, as they hoped to stop the bloody fighting immediately. He also praised Trump’s “decisive” role in paving the way for the talks and the ceasefire, adding that he hopes the agreement will lead to the “rebuilding of trust and confidence” between his country and neighbouring Thailand. Later, the US President celebrated the agreement in a social media post. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also urged all parties to “follow through on their commitments” in a statement on July 28. Further, the presence of the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia at the talks proved extremely crucial to the positive outcome.

Earlier, suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra condemned Cambodia for initiating violence along the Thai border and declared her full support for all government, military, and diplomatic retaliation measures within international legal frameworks. In a statement posted on X, Paetongtarn alleged that Cambodia had violated all international law and human rights principles by firing first and launching long-range attacks into Thai territory, affecting both officials and innocent civilians. Paetongtarn, who is also the culture minister, emphasised that Thailand had consistently pursued diplomatic dialogue with patience and restraint to prevent escalation, believing peace was the best path to resolving international conflicts. She confirmed her backing for responsive measures following security briefings, fully supporting all responsive actions taken by the government, the armed forces, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs within the framework of international law and principles.

Events preceding the developments reveal that a Thai F-16 jet had bombed targets in Cambodia, as a simmering border dispute and diplomatic meltdown rapidly led to fierce clashes, bombing, and shelling that killed many. Thailand and Cambodia blamed each other for the new outbreak of fighting that erupted early on July 24 in an area near the disputed Ta Moan Thom Temple, located in a border area in northwestern Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey province. Fighting subsequently spread to at least six other areas along the border. These happenings merit mention here to adequately comprehend the circumstances leading to the military conflict and the eventual ceasefire.

Importantly, the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet had requested an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council in response to the violence, as, according to him, it gravely threatened peace in the region. Both countries had issued statements accusing the other of instigating the fighting, following weeks of heightened tension between them. Thailand’s military had said that early on July 24, Cambodia had deployed a surveillance drone before dispatching troops to the area, who, they said, had opened fire with heavy weapons, including artillery and long-range BM21 rockets, forcing Thai soldiers to retaliate.

In a situation deteriorating by the hour, Cambodian forces had launched attacks on civilian areas in Thailand, including a hospital, causing deaths, Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defence said the Thai jets had dropped two bombs on a road and that it “strongly condemns the reckless and brutal military aggression of the Kingdom of Thailand against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Cambodia.” The Cambodian ministry also accused Thailand of attacking first and violating an agreement designed to de-escalate tension, saying its troops had acted in self-defence after coming under attack. Cambodia’s influential former Prime Minister, Hun Sen, had said that Thailand’s military had shelled two Cambodian provinces bordering Thailand—Oddar Meanchey and Preah Vihear—adding that “the Cambodian army had no choice but to fight back and counterattack.”

For academic interest, it may be recalled that for more than a century, Thailand and Cambodia have contested sovereignty at various undemarcated points along their 817 km land border. The latest skirmishes broke out after Thailand recalled its ambassador to Cambodia late on July 24 and said it would expel Cambodia’s envoy, after a second Thai soldier lost a limb to a landmine, which Bangkok claimed had been recently laid by Cambodia in the disputed area. In response, Cambodia said it would withdraw all of its diplomats from Thailand and had ordered all Thai diplomats to leave. Cambodia has denied planting mines and claims that Thai soldiers have veered off agreed paths and triggered mines left behind from Cambodia’s civil war.

Now that the ceasefire has come into effect, it is hoped that both the Buddhist countries, Thailand and Cambodia, will work towards peace and calm not only on the borders but also help to steady the political instability and domestic turbulence within Thailand. On its part, China has emerged as a key player and peace broker, while President Trump—though unpredictable and mercurial—has once again reinforced his position as a facilitator for peace by threatening and mediating to bring tranquillity between Thailand and Cambodia. That said, however, the major players should ensure that the peace lasts, and Cambodia and Thailand must not get provoked, exercising maximum restraint.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal