India’s quiet Arctic awakening

For a long time, the Arctic Ocean was thought of as a distant, icy border that was important for a few northern countries but too far away for India and other countries. That point of view is changing quickly. What happens in the High North has a bigger effect on the whole subcontinent as polar ice melts and weather patterns change. India’s quiet but planned actions in the Arctic are not just for show. The changing relationship between the Arctic and the La Niña-monsoon system, which supports over a billion lives, has a big effect on climate security.

The Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the global average. Melting sea ice creates new shipping channels, such as the Northern Sea Route, and releases oil, gas, and key minerals. Aside from geopolitics, this warming is affecting global climate systems. Scientists are discovering stronger correlations between Arctic sea-ice depletion, altering jet streams, and higher occurrences of extreme weather in the tropics.

For India, this is not a hypothetical issue. The stability of the southwest monsoon—a climate engine for agriculture, energy, and water security—is inextricably linked to global atmospheric circulation. Over the past decade, the combination of La Niña occurrences in the Pacific with warming trends in the Arctic has emerged as a crucial factor impacting rainfall patterns in the Indian subcontinent. La Niña, a chilly phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, often causes above-average rainfall in India. However, subsequent years have revealed a more complex picture. During the triple-dip La Niña period from 2020 to 2023, India experienced unprecedented monsoon variability, including disastrous floods in certain regions and dry spells in others. Climate researchers are increasingly linking this instability to the interaction of La Niña and Arctic warming.

When Arctic sea ice melts, the polar jet stream weakens and pressure systems change. This lets colder air flow south and change the patterns of tropical convection. This could make the monsoon come later, make the rain more extreme, or change where it falls in India. In short, the Arctic is becoming an important, albeit under-discussed, element in India’s monsoon equation.

India is doing more research in the Arctic because of this weather link. You need to know how the Arctic-La Niña system works so you can prepare for disasters, keep water safe, and grow crops in a society that depends on monsoons.

India’s involvement in the Arctic started quietly in 2007, when it sent its first scientific mission to Svalbard, Norway. India built the Himadri Arctic scientific station by 2008, making it one of the few non-Arctic countries with a permanent scientific presence there. Since then, Indian scientists have looked into how the atmosphere works, how the cryosphere moves, space weather, and how these things affect the Indian monsoon. India was awarded observer membership in the Arctic Council in 2013 and will present India’s Arctic Policy in 2022. The policy is structured on six pillars: scientific research, climate and environmental protection, economic cooperation, transportation and connectivity, governance and international cooperation, and national capacity building. The study emphasises climate linkages, which align with the La Niña-Arctic interaction.

People often think that India’s interest in the Arctic is a matter of foreign policy, but the real reason is climate security. India is being more careful than China, which has been pushing hard for a plan for shipping and energy in the Arctic. India is instead putting money into long-term science to help the country deal with climate change.

The Indian monsoon is the most important part of the country’s food and energy supply. Even small changes can affect crop production, hydropower generation, inflation, and how quickly we respond to disasters. As the Arctic-La Niña interaction gets stronger, it’s becoming more and more important to have accurate data and forecasting models. This is where India’s Arctic research could help by making it easier to plan for changes in the seasons and make more accurate predictions.

While climate science is the primary driver, geopolitics is not irrelevant. The Arctic is becoming more and more of a problem. China calls itself a “near-Arctic state” and has made big investments in research stations and shipping routes. Russia has made Arctic resource extraction a part of its national strategy. If you don’t take part in these talks, it would mean giving up control over global resources that are having a bigger and bigger impact on India’s climate future.

As an observer on the Arctic Council, India has avoided militarising its participation. Instead, it focuses on international cooperation, environmental responsibility, and scientific contributions. This low-key diplomacy enables New Delhi to preserve working relationships with both Western Arctic states and Russia, despite concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

India’s approach has structural limits. It doesn’t have the big Arctic infrastructure and fleet of icebreakers that China has built. It should be based on working together on science, going on missions that are short but regular, and having ties to countries like Norway, Canada, and the US. In some cases, though, this limit can be helpful. India could gain credibility in Arctic governance by showing that it can be trusted as a scientific partner that studies the link between climate and monsoons while protecting the environment. It has a lot of moral and political power in international climate talks because it is a developing country that is vulnerable to climate change.

India’s quiet Arctic awakening is not a high-profile power play. Instead, it is a climate-first, science-driven engagement strategy aimed at ensuring the monsoon’s future. India is expected to improve its Arctic research and work more closely with polar countries and use Arctic data more effectively in its seasonal forecasting systems in the coming years.

La Niña will continue to impact India’s rainfall pattern. But as the Arctic warms and its effects on tropical weather change, it will be very important to understand this link in order to protect India’s food supply, economy, and people. New Delhi is quietly but purposefully getting ready for the future. The High North is no longer a faraway place; it is now a key part of India’s climate future. New Delhi is quietly getting ready for a strategic climate policy that sees research as power, cooperation as leverage, and stable monsoons as a national security issue.

Views expressed are personal. Anusreeta Dutta is a columnist and political ecology researcher, Zahid Sultan is a researcher