Fractured Mandate Ahead

Three countries in India’s immediate vicinity are scheduled to hold elections in the coming weeks and months. Myanmar, which has been devastated by a prolonged civil war, is set to conduct elections shortly. Bangladesh and Nepal will elect new governments in February and March, respectively. Both Bangladesh and Nepal have recently experienced student-led movements that contributed to the collapse of their elected governments.

The current situation in Bangladesh constitutes the most severe strategic challenge to India since the 1971 War of Liberation. With its enduring ally, Sheikh Hasina, deposed, India stares at a radicalised and pro-Pakistan regime in Bangladesh, heightened security concerns and geopolitical challenges.

No inclusive elections

The Bangladeshi Election Commission has scheduled elections for February 12, 2026. The Awami League, which governed from 2009 to 2024, has been barred from political activities, effectively disenfranchising about one-third of the electorate. Excluding such a significant segment undermines democratic principles and suggests authoritarian tendencies. Notably, Western democracies have remained silent on this development.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) are the main contenders. While BNP previously received tacit support from Jamaat, they now compete as rivals. BNP and the National Citizens Party (NCP) are cooperating informally. Formed in February 2025 by Students Against Discrimination and the Jatiya Nagorik Committee after the July uprising, the NCP is Bangladesh’s first student-led political party, offering voters a third option.

What poll pundits predict

A survey by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) indicates that if elections were held next week, BNP would lead with 33 per cent, followed by Jamaat at 29 per cent. The National Citizens Party (NCP) is projected at 6 per cent, Islami Andolan Bangladesh at 5 per cent, and the Jatiya Party (JP) at 4 per cent. BNP and Jamaat are closely matched, with NCP’s support strengthening BNP’s position.

The de facto chairman of BNP and son of Khaleda Zia, Tarique Rahman, is scheduled to return to Dhaka after a 17-year hiatus on Christmas Day. It is yet to be seen whether his arrival translates into deliverance from political exile by romping home in the elections. Much will depend on the swing voters, who are nearly half of the electorate, at this juncture.

India, on its part, has said in an official statement that “we are in favour of peace and stability in Bangladesh and have consistently called for free, fair, inclusive and credible elections conducted in a peaceful atmosphere”.

Anti-Hasina, Anti-India Mood

Much of the current resentment toward India arises from its decision to shelter Sheikh Hasina, despite Bangladesh’s official request for her extradition. Several student groups have protested this, viewing her statements as provocative. Under the July Oikyo banner, some have demonstrated at Indian missions in Bangladesh, raising security concerns for diplomats. Bangladesh also accuses India of permitting right-wing activists to protest outside Bangladeshi diplomatic units in India.

The 2013 Extradition Treaty between India and Bangladesh delivers a framework for the extradition of offenders. But cases of political persecution, human rights issues, the standard of legal process, and sovereign discretion influence all such decisions.

Grim law & order

Law and order has deteriorated, especially following the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent student leader and general election candidate, who was shot by unknown assailants as he began his campaign. As a spokesperson for Inquilab Mancha, Hadi held an anti-India stance. Some groups allege that his attackers have found refuge in India.

Another NCP labour wing organiser was shot in the head in broad daylight in Khulna while preparing for a divisional rally. These consecutive attacks on NCP organisers, along with incidents involving BNP members, raise concerns about their timing and intent.

Since the July uprising, Bangladesh has experienced a surge in crime and violence. The Asian Centre for Human Rights (ACHR) notes that current conditions and resources make free and fair elections unlikely. According to Odhikar, there were 281 deaths and 7,698 injuries in political clashes from August 2024 to September 2025. Bangladesh Police recorded 3,509 murders from January to November 2025. Additionally, 40 politically motivated extrajudicial killings occurred between August 2024 and October 2025. At least 718 people, including 41 police officers, were lynched from August 2024 to November 2025.

Thousands have faced political persecution under the pretext of counter-terrorism. Approximately 16,500 political activists were arrested during Operation Devil Hunt-1 and 2, launched in February and December. By October 2025, 5,19,529 individuals were implicated in 1,586 politically motivated cases. These widespread arrests suggest significant human rights violations against activists opposing the interim government’s alleged radical Islamist leadership.

The situation is worsened by the presence of over 4,00,000 illegal firearms in Bangladesh, many held by criminals and gangs. This environment enables mercenaries to carry out politically motivated attacks.

Out of 42,761 polling booths, the Bangladesh Police have classified 8,746 as highly vulnerable, 16,359 as vulnerable, and 17,656 as normal. However, this assessment does not account for the risks faced by religious minorities in 97 constituencies or indigenous peoples in at least three Chittagong Hill Tracts constituencies.

Given these conditions, ACHR has strongly advocated the deployment of international election monitors to oversee the elections.

Media under attack

Press freedom is under threat. Prominent newspapers such as the Daily Star and Prothom Alo, both critical of the Sheikh Hasina government, have been vandalised and targeted by arson attacks from radical groups.

The interim government, led by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, appears unable to manage the rise in crime and violence. Certain domestic and foreign actors may be attempting to disrupt the elections, potentially allowing Jamaat to strengthen its position relative to BNP.

Pre-election trends show BNP leading Jamaat, but the situation may change in the next two months. A delayed election, a Jamaat-led government, or a hung parliament could undermine the stability of Bangladesh and the region.

Restraint is the key

In the coming days, anti-India groups may attempt to influence the electoral environment in Bangladesh to favour more vocal anti-India parties. Political violence could increase. Both governments should exercise restraint, avoid unverified accusations, and refrain from retaliatory actions.

While student-led movements worldwide have often advanced democratic values, the recent regime change in Bangladesh seems to have enabled the rise of a regressive, radical, and non-secular ideology. It is unclear whether the youth genuinely supported this outcome or whether their movement was co-opted by radical, theocratic groups exploiting the political vacuum.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a former Director General of Police, Himachal Pradesh, and an alumnus of the National Defence College