Himalayan ‘Youthquake’

The situation in Nepal is extremely serious due to widespread, deadly, and violent protests that have led to the Prime Minister’s resignation and the torching of public and private property. The unrest is primarily driven by widespread public anger over corruption, a struggling economy, and a government-imposed ban on social media platforms like Facebook, WhatsApp, and YouTube. These issues, particularly the ban—seen as a tool for censorship—ignited protests, most notably among “Gen Z,” leading to violent clashes with police, a high death toll, and the eventual resignation of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli.

Gen Z, or the “Zoomer” generation, refers to the young generation born between 1995 and 2010. As the first generation to grow up with the internet and mobile technology, Gen Z is known for being digital natives and tech-savvy, prioritising authenticity, diversity, and pragmatic approaches to issues like climate change and social responsibility.

The government blocked access to major social media platforms after they failed to register and comply with new government oversight requirements, fueling protests that demanded the ban be lifted. Long-standing frustration with high-level corruption among political figures contributed significantly to the public outcry, with images of extravagant spending by the elite highlighting the economic hardship faced by ordinary citizens.

A history of political instability, coupled with a perceived lack of responsiveness from the government, has contributed to growing dissatisfaction, especially among the younger generation. The violent response from security forces to the initial anti-ban protests, resulting in numerous deaths and injuries, only intensified the anger and further pressured the government. The violent clashes between protesters and police resulted in at least 19 deaths and hundreds of injuries.

The massive protests and subsequent deaths led to the resignation of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, who stated his decision was to “facilitate a solution” to the political crisis. Following the Prime Minister’s resignation, the government lifted the ban on social media, though the underlying causes of the unrest remain.

Unrest in Nepal is a matter of significant concern for India, due to shared security, economic, and strategic interests. India closely monitors any destabilising events and has historically been involved in and influenced by Nepal’s political developments. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has called for restraint and dialogue. In addition, India has increased security along the Indo-Nepal border to prevent any spillover of unrest. The long, open border between India and Nepal is a security risk during times of turmoil. Increased vigilance is required to prevent the movement of illicit goods, criminal elements, or anti-India forces.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated: “As a close friend and neighbour, we hope that all concerned will exercise restraint and address any issues through peaceful means and dialogue.” The MEA confirmed it was “closely monitoring the developments” and urged Indian nationals in Nepal to “exercise caution and adhere to the steps and guidelines issued by the Nepali authorities.”

India and China are in a high-stakes competition for influence in Nepal. During periods of instability, the power vacuum can be exploited by China, especially through infrastructure projects and economic initiatives. A Nepal that tilts too far towards China is a strategic worry for India. Political leaders in Nepal have at times used nationalist rhetoric against India to consolidate support. Such actions can jeopardise bilateral relations and India’s position in the country.

The ongoing unrest in Nepal also has economic implications for both Nepal and India. Political instability can disrupt trade, transportation, and connectivity projects between the two countries, which is economically detrimental to both. Indian-funded infrastructure and hydropower projects in Nepal can be stalled or jeopardised by civil unrest. India and Nepal share several important river systems. Political instability can impede cooperation on water resources, including crucial hydropower and irrigation projects.

India has historically favoured democratic stability in Nepal. Continued political upheaval and fragile governance can undermine the democratic process and hinder effective policymaking. Nepal has had more than 10 governments since its monarchy was abolished in 2008, a sign of ongoing political fragility. The Himalayan country is a key part of India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy. Instability in a bordering country can have a regional ripple effect.

Summing up, the latest instability adds to a history of political volatility in Nepal, which has seen 13 governments since 2008. The recent protests, led by young people, were triggered by a temporary ban on social media, but they also reflect deep-seated public anger over alleged government corruption and ineffective governance. India’s primary interests in Nepal involve maintaining regional stability, preventing Nepal from becoming a platform for anti-India activities, ensuring its economic interests are met through hydropower and trade, and securing its own border from potential threats. These interests stem from Nepal’s strategic location as a buffer between India and China and its open border, which allows for free movement of people but also poses security challenges.

Views expressed are personal