Dreadful reconciliation

The negotiations between the Shehbaz Sharif government and the Taliban for a peace deal has got the nod from a Pakistani parliamentary panel, which has also approved the setting up of an oversight committee comprising members of parliament of different political parties to monitor these parleys. On July 6, the Pakistan Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said in a statement: "The Parliamentary Committee on National Security formally approved the process of negotiations and approved the formation of a 'Parliamentary Oversight Committee'." Both the government and the Taliban had last month declared an indefinite ceasefire that had led to the stoppage of almost two-year long military action and deadly terror attacks, especially in the areas along the Pak-Afghan border. The Parliamentary Committee on National Security (PCNS), attended by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif among others, formally endorsed the negotiations with the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) after the military top brass warned it of "devastating consequences" if these talks failed and the TTP joined hands with terror outfit ISIS-Khorasan. Local media reported that in the closed-door meeting of the PCNS, top military officials gave a detailed briefing on the progress and background of the ongoing talks with the TTP. While Peshawar Corps Commander General Faiz Hameed made the presentation, army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa replied to questions by the parliamentarians. ISI chief Lt General Nadeem Anjum was also present in the meeting. Gen Faiz leads the Pakistani team which has held a series of meetings with TTP chief Noor Wali Masood in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's air strikes in April targeting TTP hideouts in Afghanistan had pushed the Afghan Taliban to bring the TTP on to the negotiating table. The air strikes were carried out after the TTP increased cross-border terror strikes which led to the killing of several Pakistani security personnel, media reports said. The threat of TTP joining hands with ISIS-K (or Daesh-Khorasan) also compelled Islamabad to hold the negotiations. Soon after the meeting, the PMO came out with a statement setting up the Parliamentary Oversight Committee to monitor the Taliban talks. Interestingly, the PMO statement also termed the meeting as the "first step towards the 'National Grand Reconciliation Dialogue'. It said that "with the support of the Afghan government and led by civilian and military officials, the Pakistani government is negotiating with the banned TTP within the framework of the Constitution of Pakistan to strengthen regional and internal peace." It also stated that the final results would be implemented after the completion of the procedure with the approval of the federal government. "The Parliamentary Committee on National Security formally approved the process of negotiations and approved the formation of a 'Parliamentary Oversight Committee' which would be responsible for overseeing the process", the statement read. On the same day, the US State Department too came out with a statement, saying that counter¬terrorism and border security were the two areas where the United States wanted to continue to work with Pakistan. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said "We value our bilateral relationship. We want to continue to work together in areas where we do have mutual interests with our Pakistani partners." He added, "that includes counterterrorism. That includes border security as well."

It is significant that the Pakistan government aims to launch "National Reconciliation" as the TTP, among its demands, is seeking reversal of the merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), carried out through a constitutional amendment in 2018. During the talks, TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud said on a social media channel: "Our demands are clear and especially the reversal of FATA merger with KP is our primary demand, which the group cannot back down from." The demand has been repeatedly rejected by the incumbent government, with Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah saying that the merger cannot be reversed as it had been done through a constitutional amendment. In 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand haphazardly drew the Durand Line, which not only divided the Pashtun tribe into two halves but also created many a rift for the future generations to deal with. This border issue is a bone of contention between the present-day Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pashtuns in the FATA region (primarily comprising seven tribal regions) were governed under the 1901 British law called Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR), which allowed them internal autonomy and practice of their own tribal laws. This status quo continued under Pakistan since its formation in 1947. With time, this region became lawless and the warlordism, based on ethnicity, grew. The Pakistani army further used this mess during the 1979 Soviet invasion and the war on terror operation in 2001. Over a period of time, FATA became an incubator of terrorism. Since then, several army operations have been launched in the region, including by the Pervez Musharraf regime. With the Taliban gaining strength in Afghanistan and finally capturing power in August 2021, the erstwhile Imran Khan government had offered to negotiate with the TTP, which was followed by a three-month ceasefire. However, the truce was stalled after the TTP accused the government of raiding their areas of influence, and the deal ended within a month in December 2021. After that, there was a spike in the number of attacks carried out by the TTP, which led the Sharif government to re-start the talks that have now led to an indefinite ceasefire. Islamabad has been officially opposing the TTP demands for reversal of the FATA merger and to impose Sharia in the tribal areas of Pakistan. But the Shehbaz Sharif government's decision to set up a national reconciliation panel following the TTP talks reflect a significant tweaking of Pakistan's hardline on these demands, especially on the FATA merger issue.

These negotiations are expected to be protracted. And, in case the talks continue to move forward, the process would have a significant bearing, not only on the security of Pakistan, but the geopolitical landscape of the Pak-Afghan region as well. The government's decision to set up a parliamentary panel to monitor these parleys and designating them as "the first step towards the 'National Grand Reconciliation Dialogue'" indicates its intent to broaden the process and the impact of its outcome in the long run. The need for parliamentary oversight of the dialogue process does not amount to an approval by the country's Parliament. But the decisions that would be arrived at through these deliberations have to be approved by the Pakistan government.

India must keep a close watch on these developments as the outcome of these negotiations would have a major impact on its internal security, especially in Kashmir. The TTP, besides seeking revocation of the FATA merger in 2018, are also demanding the release of an estimated 30,000 of its men jailed in various prisons across Pakistan, and revocation of cases against them. The Pakistani Taliban also wants the country's troops to be pulled out of the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that now includes FATA. All this is clearly intended to give the TTP a free hand in the areas bordering Afghanistan and rule the roost there. If this happens, it would give a major boost to anti-India outfits like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad which are part and parcel of the TTP bandwagon. If the TTP succeeds in getting such a free hand along the Pak-Afghan border, it would also affect Indian aid to Afghanistan from reaching the destination by land through Pakistan. The increased strength of the Pakistani Taliban, and as a result that of the LeT and JeM, would give a fillip to these terror outfits to spread their violent activities in India, including in Kashmir, justifying them in the name of growing attacks against minorities here. Keeping such a scenario in mind, India must also utilise its relations with the United States, as well as China, to check such developments. New Delhi should leverage advantages from its relations with these two powers, even though they are mutually at loggerheads, to safeguard Indian interests.

Views expressed are personal