Dramatic downturn

Although the year 2018 was lucky for ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan as he was anointed as the PM with promise for a Naya Pakistan, he was not so fortunate in 2022, when his stars started abandoning him, for his own follies, miscalculations, complete lack of wisdom & political astuteness, and lack of any judgment. This ultimately brought his most unceremonious dismissal from the office of the Prime Minister, an unprecedented happening, never seen in the 75 years of Pakistan's existence. He was ousted through a no-confidence motion. There are multiple reasons for his predictable exit from the corridors of power, bringing a slur to his image. There is hardly any quarter in domestic or international circles that seems to have any sympathy for his ejection. Imran Khan's abject failure in handling the armed forces, the powerful ISI political opponents, and the religious clerics led to his downfall. Other than these, Imran Khan's regime was marked by rampant corruption, inflation, horse trading, inept handling of terror issues including the ones unleashed by the incorrigible Afghan Taliban.

He also failed to deal with a moderate Chief of the Army Staff like General Qamar Ahmed Bajwa by adopting a confrontationist attitude. Also, If Imran Khan had heeded to some pages of Pakistan's history, he would have known as to how Field Marshal Ayub Khan dismissed Iskandar Mirza, usurped and assumed all powers and ruled for 11 long years (1958-1961). Similarly, General Zia Ul Haq ruled Pakistan as the military dictator and President from 1977 to 1988, and even hanged his 'patron' Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The history still reminds us about the dictatorial role of General Pervez Musharraf in 1999 when he dislodged Nawaz Sharif and ruled like a despot. Imran preferred selective amnesia by ignoring the powerful role of the Army with his avoidable overconfidence. Storming of the television studios, tanks rolling in on the major streets of Pakistan have been familiar sights in the past. Thankfully, the Army, this time, remained a silent spectator — giving much leeway to the Imran Khan detractors to exploit the situation and nudge him out.

While the armed forces did not step in, the judiciary did. Its intervention was timely, effective, decisive and neutralised the flexing of muscles by the legislature when the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly disallowed, in obvious support to Imran Khan, the move on no-confidence motion tabled by the opposition.

These developments apart, Imran Khan committed a blunder of enormous proportions in befriending Russia by paying a visit to Moscow during its ongoing war with Ukraine. This apparently angered the US and dealt such a blow to the US-Pak relations which look derailed forever.

Incensed by the US on Pakistan's indiscretion, US feels that Pakistan's political crisis is unlikely to be a priority for President Biden who is now grappling with the Ukraine war. Former Assistant Secretary of the State for South Asia, Robin Raphel, who is a senior associate with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says, "we have so many other fish to fry". It is, therefore, evident that the US will not make the first move to reach out to Pakistan. It is also deeply disturbed by Imran Khan's allegations of blaming a US conspiracy to oust him. This allegation was not sold even in the domestic constituency. In the aftermath of the shameful exit of Imran, the political arena saw the entry of the new Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif (70), as the latest actor of the dramatis persona who has had an excellent track record as an able administrator as the Chief Minister of Punjab. Prima facie, it would appear that the new PM will take the Army, especially the ISI, along and it should not be surprising if he had come to the helm already with the express blessings of these all-powerful outfits.

Significantly, on assumption of office, Shehbaz Sharif vowed to maintain ties with China as a time-tested and proven friend. This statement may not necessarily augur well with the US establishment. This said, Shahbaz's elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, is expected to return to Islamabad from his London exile. Having successfully dealt with the US during his long years of premiership, he might play a better balancing role between the US and China, bringing some sanity to the Pakistan foreign policy.

As regards India, Shehbaz Sharif was perhaps hasty in raking up the Kashmir issue at the very start of his innings. Analysts reckon that this was avoidable on his part as it would have raised opportunities for Pakistan to mend its diplomatic ties with India which have been lying frozen for a considerable time. A thaw on Sharif's part would have been a better start of his new assignment. Yet, this is not too late and Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari and others may prevail upon him to emerge more mature and responsible in dealing with next-door India whose position on Kashmir remains unchanged and will continue to be so forever.

These assessments are being written and read amid the rapidly changing developments in Pakistan and by the time this piece reaches the press, it is likely that other happenings may have overtaken these. However, one thing is certain that the Pakistani people in general have heaved a sigh of relief with Imran Khan's departure and will watch with curiosity and hope, the performance of the new incumbent. Whatever, the coming months for Pakistan will be a bumpy road ahead — both nationally and internationally, and putting all the eggs in the basket of China by giving a carte blanche certificate may not be so wise as Imran Khan did the same and, today, he has no sympathiser in China. Similarly, his utterances on Kashmir could not change any public opinion within and outside Pakistan. The same will be the case for Shehbaz Sharif as well.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal