Desert Winds, Nuclear Clouds

The defence pact recently sealed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not just another diplomatic memorandum. It marks a pivotal shift in the balance of power stretching from the Gulf to South Asia, one that New Delhi and Tel Aviv would be reckless to ignore.

A Nuclear Umbrella over Riyadh

The most startling clause in the agreement is Islamabad’s confirmation that its nuclear programme, unique in the Muslim world, would be “made available” to Riyadh in case of aggression. Saudi Arabia has long harboured anxieties about being strategically outgunned by Israel and Iran. With Pakistan’s deterrent notionally at its disposal, Riyadh has acquired leverage that could fundamentally alter calculations in the region.

But the pact is not simply about the nuclear file. Pakistan boasts a conventional military presence, ranking among the top ten militaries in the world, with a combat-tested Air Force that has already proven its superiority in confrontations with India. For Riyadh, long dependent on American protection, this pact marks a deliberate move to diversify its security architecture after the U.S. failed to prevent the strike on Doha.

The Shadow of China

The alliance also smuggles Beijing into the equation. More than 80 per cent of Pakistan’s military hardware comes from China. By binding itself to Islamabad, Saudi Arabia gains indirect access to China’s military-industrial complex—an arrangement that could reshape Gulf security beyond Washington’s grasp. It is difficult to overstate the symbolism: Saudi capital, Pakistani workforce, and Chinese technology form a triangular bloc at the heart of the Muslim world.

This is not uncharted territory. Pakistani troops have long been stationed in the Kingdom, but the new agreement codifies an informal partnership into a binding mutual-defence guarantee, transforming the geopolitical chessboard.

Pakistan’s Double-Edged Gamble

For Islamabad, the pact offers badly needed lifelines. The Pakistani economy is perpetually teetering, often reliant on Gulf bailouts. Islamabad can expect capital injections and Saudi investment in the aviation and telecommunications sectors in exchange for its security guarantees. Strategically, Pakistan gains reassurance in its rivalry with India: New Delhi must now reckon with Riyadh, at least nominally, on Islamabad’s side.

Yet the pact also drags Pakistan into dangerous new waters. Historically, Islamabad has positioned itself as a reluctant participant in Middle Eastern conflicts—declining to take sides in Syria, for instance. That posture may no longer be sustainable. By tying itself so publicly to Riyadh, Pakistan risks becoming a direct actor in the Arab–Israeli struggle. Israel, in particular, may now view Pakistan as a nuclear-backed adversary rather than a neutral bystander. That shift could invite covert operations, cyberattacks, or worse.

India Cannot Be Complacent.

For India, the Saudi-Pakistan defence agreement is troubling not because Riyadh would ever intervene directly in South Asia but because it strengthens Islamabad’s military establishment and alters the politics of the Gulf. India has worked hard to cultivate Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf as economic partners and protectors of its enormous diaspora. This new arrangement risks subtly tilting Gulf loyalties toward Pakistan.

New Delhi’s likely response will be twofold: doubling its defence and intelligence cooperation with Gulf states, while accelerating its diplomatic charm offensive in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. India cannot afford to allow Pakistan to monopolise Saudi goodwill, particularly when nearly nine million Indians live and work across the Gulf and remit billions back home.

Israel’s New Headache

For Israel, the development is even more acute. Jerusalem has always relied on the Gulf’s quiet convergence against Iran to build tacit alliances, most recently under the Abraham Accords. The Saudi–Pakistan pact muddies those waters. Even if Riyadh never calls on Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella, the symbolism of such an option undermines Israel’s claim to unrivalled deterrence in the region. It also gives Iran fresh justification to deepen ties with its own allies, from Damascus to Hezbollah.

A New Security Architecture

The Saudi–Pakistan pact is a loud signal that the old order, anchored in U.S. protection and Western security guarantees, is crumbling. In its place, a multipolar Gulf is emerging, with regional players building hedges, redundancies, and alternative alliances. The message is clear for India and Israel, both of which have thrived under the old structure: adapt quickly or risk being exposed in a new, less predictable Middle East. This is not merely a piece of paper between two states. It is the embryo of a new axis of power.

Views expressed are personal. THE WRITER WRITES ABOUT POLITICS, MATERIAL CULTURE, AND ECONOMIC HISTORY