Denting the Dravidian Fortress

What is the new thesis in Tamil Nadu politics after the entry of actor Joseph Vijay with his party, Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK)? The question is whether Vijay will become a factor to reckon with or a passing bird like other actors. MG Ramachandran was an exceptional actor and politician, with his own record of achievements. Tamil Nadu is known for binary politics: first between the Congress and the DMK, and later between the DMK and the AIADMK, which eventually decimated the Indian National Congress. Nationalism and regionalism were the contending ideological forces behind the two parties. Later, politics took on an ethnic dimension, following the footsteps of Dravidian ideology, under the strong leadership of M Karunanidhi and MG Ramachandran. Eventually, both parties became populist, relying on innovative pro-poor schemes.

Now, both parties have grown into giant structures with vast resources, but bereft of clear ideology or development-oriented programmes capable of achieving fundamental transformation in Tamil society and politics. The two parties have also been portrayed as corrupt through systemic administrative actions of the Union government. Using this factor, the national party BJP seeks to expand its base. Many others have tried to do the same to capture power, but in vain. Actor Vijay is now attempting a similar path with his followers. Will he succeed? That is the question.

Corruption is not seen as a major issue by most in Tamil Nadu, as people have long perceived that political parties do not function as political parties but as companies with vast resources and large organisational frameworks. Politics has become a space for the moneyed, not for the poor. In this way, politics has been shaped in the state. The two Dravidian parties are massive organisations, fully equipped with material and manpower resources to face any number of elections and challenges. They are known for their political manoeuvring. This model has spread into Indian politics through regional parties and later through coalition governance at the Centre with the Indian National Congress. The BJP now seeks to dismantle this model at any cost, pursuing it as a political adventure. Whether this will happen in Tamil Nadu remains to be seen in the 2026 election.

Vijay cannot change this reality if he remains alone, forming alliances only with minor political parties. He has made it clear that the DMK is his arch political enemy, while the BJP is his ideological opponent. If he aligns only with smaller parties with a mere one or two percent vote share, he cannot win. But if he allies with the AIADMK, that alliance could sweep the election — a proposition well understood by everyone in Tamil Nadu.

But the AIADMK is with the BJP. Vijay is luring the smaller parties by promising that power will be shared with them if he wins the election. The smaller parties are also weak, both in terms of their support base and their resource base. Organisationally, TVK has to be strengthened to face the DMK, and hence it needs the support of a strong party with organisational strength. Today, to face the DMK, the AIADMK is the only option. The DMK, on the other hand, will compensate for the weaknesses of these parties through AIADMK, which has the needed resource base and cadre base. These smaller parties are comfortable with the DMK, and they are not ready to take the risk of going with Vijay. At the same time, the DMK is carefully making decisions by taking into account the anti-incumbency factor and the weak position of the allies, and hence it wants more parties to be accommodated in its front. The DMK is realistic in making decisions.

In the same way, the AIADMK and the BJP front need more parties to take on the DMK. Since both parties have reasonable followings and a huge resource base, winning the election is still not easy, as the minority voters will go to Vijay and the DMK. From the above, one can conclude very easily that all three forces, namely the DMK, the AIADMK, and the TVK (Vijay Party), are weak and searching for support. All three major contending groups of parties do not have any serious programmatic or transformational agenda to change the tide towards their front, except relying on freebies. Vijay is not MGR, and he knows it very well. He has no intellectual background, which is evident through his speeches and activities in the party. Equally, the two other parties also suffer from intellectual bankruptcy.

In this context, if an election takes place today, however weak the DMK alliance may be, it has an edge over the others. If Vijay aligns with the AIADMK, it will be a sweep, and the DMK will be totally decimated. People who want change now expect a new alliance in which the AIADMK and the TVK are partners, minus the BJP, as minority votes will go to the DMK. The BJP in Tamil Nadu is not the BJP of the past, and it has emerged as a force to reckon with in terms of its support base. Hence, if the parties are determined to decimate the DMK, the TVK and the AIADMK, along with the BJP, will easily win the election. This is also another thesis. If all three join together, it will be a grand coalition, and it will also sweep the election. It all depends on the will of the leaders of the three political parties, namely the AIADMK, the BJP, and the TVK.

The writer is a former Professor and Rajiv Gandhi Chair for Panchayati Raj Studies, Gandhigram Rural Institute. Views expressed are personal