Brahmos or Bharat?

Last week, when Indian BrahMos missiles soared over the Line of Control, every missile costing Rs 34 crore carried a sour irony: the price of one round was possibly more than Pakistan’s daily defense budget. While Operation Sindoor was orchestrated with sheer tactical brilliance, it has revealed a dangerous paradox. India’s military competence, embodied in hypersonic missiles and AI-guided drones, can be a double-edged sword—capable of destroying terror camps while, at the same time, threatening our economic ambitions.

Let us not beat around the bush: India had every reason to strike back after the dastardly massacre in the picturesque tourism hotspot of Pahalgam. When terrorists slaughtered 26 innocents in Kashmir’s scenic valleys, surgical strikes were not only warranted but justified. But as smoke hangs over flattened terror camps, the economic repercussions are only just starting. The rupee, already battered at Rs 90/USD, shed another 1.5 per cent hours after the strikes. Investor sentiment, so crucial to our USD 5 trillion fantasy, drained Rs 7 lakh crore from markets in three days. Pakistan’s economy may be going down the drain—its IMF lifeline and 0.7 per cent inflation are hilarious Band-Aids on a gangrenous fiscal body—but we’re learning the hard way that when your neighbour’s house catches fire, your own windows shatter.

This is not 1999. The Kargil War’s 0.3 per cent GDP loss feels quaint compared to today’s stakes. Modern India’s economic architecture, built on a USD 245 billion IT sector, 500 GW renewable targets, and global supply chain ambitions, is terrifyingly fragile. Consider the math: every minor border skirmish drains USD 280 million daily, equivalent to funding 40 per cent of our GST revenue. Those screaming for “all-out war” might pause if they realised a month of fighting could bankrupt our National Health Mission twice over. Pakistan’s collapse, while satisfying hawkish imaginations, would flood our borders with refugees and invite China to weaponise the Brahmaputra, a hydrological dagger aimed at 60 million Indians.

Here’s the bitter pill: we’re trapped in what game theorists call the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Both nations know cooperation (open trade, intel-sharing) would yield prosperity, but decades of betrayal have made distrust our default. The result? A USD 10 billion shadow economy where Indian medicines reach Karachi via Dubai, and Pakistani textiles hit Mumbai through Colombo, all while middlemen pocket 30 per cent premiums that should’ve funded schools and hospitals. We are punishing ourselves to punish Pakistan, like burning your own crops to starve your enemy.

Colonel John Boyd’s OODA Loop—a military strategy framework—explains why we are winning battles but risking the war. India’s economic heft lets us cycle through Observe-Orient-Decide-Act phases faster: satellites detect threats, missiles launch within hours, and real-time data guides strikes. Pakistan, drowning in USD 22 billion debt repayments and military spending that consumes half its budget, reacts like a cornered animal-shooting down drones it cannot afford to replace. But speed kills both ways. When we suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a move that controls 80 per cent of Pakistan’s farm water, we forgot our own infrastructure gaps: it will probably take 5-7 years and USD 12 billion to weaponise those flows. Meanwhile, China’s new Brahmaputra dam looms, ready to flood Assam if provoked.

The nationalists are not entirely wrong—India’s Rs 6.81 lakh crore defence budget buys formidable leverage. The BrahMos’ Mach 3 fury and Pralay missiles’ 500-km reach are technological marvels. But let’s not confuse capability with wisdom. Every Rupee spent on missiles is a Rupee not spent on semiconductors or solar farms. Pakistan’s economy may be 1/10th our size, but their desperation makes them dangerous. When your adversary has nothing left to lose, even a pyrrhic victory becomes a trap.

There happens to be a better way. Instead of mimicking Pakistan’s recklessness, India should weaponise economic interdependence. Revive the USD 89 million pharma trade to break China’s API monopoly. Offer water-sharing pacts that pre-empt Brahmaputra blackmail. These aren’t concessions—they’re manoeuvres to isolate Pakistan’s military-terror complex while empowering its civilian economy. As the US learned with China, you do not defeat rivals by bombing them into the Stone Age; you outgrow them.

Yes, Pakistan’s denials of terror camps, of responsibility, of basic decency are infuriating. But true leadership is not about reacting to provocation; it is about redefining the game. When Moody’s warns that sustained tensions could shave 1.2 per cent off our GDP, we are reminded that the road to USD 5 trillion is paved with stability, not shrapnel.

Let us honour Pahalgam’s victims by building an India too prosperous to attack. Let us make our IT hubs, green energy parks, and startup ecosystems the ultimate deterrent. The world respects economic powerhouses, not artillery enthusiasts. Pakistan may never change, but we can—by recognising that the highest form of victory is not reducing enemies to rubble, but rendering their aggression irrelevant. The choice is ours: remain trapped in yesterday’s grudges, or invest in tomorrow’s growth. History rewards those who build, not just those who destroy.

Shaunak Roy is an Assistant Professor in the Postgraduate & Research Department of Commerce and the Professor-in-Charge of the Management Faculty in the Department of Management Studies at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata. Views expressed are personal