Alarming resurgence

With a gradual deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan, the prospect of foreign terrorists relocating there from conflict zones elsewhere in the world has become a reality. Such a development is sure to have a dangerous spillover effect in the entire region, including Pakistan and India. It has been reported that Al Qaeda units are present over a dozen Afghan provinces, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) already has its bases and sanctuaries well-established inside Afghanistan. It is also well known that the Afghan Taliban regime has not disturbed these camps or activities, but have rather supported them.

But what should be of grave concern to India is the relationship the Afghan Taliban has with outfits like the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). According to a report presented to the United Nations Security Council some months ago, the JeM maintains "eight training camps in Nangarhar (province of Afghanistan), three of which are directly under Taliban control." LeT, which is reported to have provided finance and training to the Taliban operators, "maintains three camps in Kunar and Nangarhar (provinces)." While Masood Azhar is the overall head of the JeM and is based in Pakistan, Qari Ramazan is the newly appointed head of the outfit in Afghanistan. The LeT is led in Afghanistan by Mawlawi Yousuf, who has held at least one meeting with the Taliban regime's Deputy Interior Minister Noor Jalil. In January this year, a Taliban delegation visited a training camp used by LeT in the Haska Mena district of Nangarhar.

It is clear from these findings that the Afghan Taliban's assurance to the global community stating they would not allow Islamist terror outfits to operate from Afghan soil, cannot and should not be taken seriously. The Taliban and Al Qaeda have had a mutually beneficial relationship which goes back to decades, unlike the case with the Islamic State group. The TTP, which is the largest outfit (in terms of numbers) based in Afghanistan, is in a "resurgent mode" after five splinter groups returned to its fold since the Afghan Taliban established its rule in the landlocked nation. As per estimates, the TTP's strength has grown to about 7,000 trained and armed fighters.

Furthermore, there has been a proliferation of all kinds of sophisticated weapons and military equipment in Afghanistan, which have now found their way to terror strongholds in the Middle East and Africa. Since the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan on July 15 last year, several countries in the neighbourhood have reported the existence of large stockpiles of weaponry left in the open by the US and allied forces, which are now in the hands of extremist and terror outfits, the UN Team said in a fresh situational report a month ago. The weapons include huge numbers of AK-47s, medium-range rocket launchers and M-14 and M-16 rifles. It also noted a free trade in frequency jammers within Afghanistan. The team, in its report tabled in UNSC this July, said these equipment, specifically thermal imagers and sophisticated night-vision equipment, "which allow for enhanced surveillance and targeted, precise attacks", were already being used against national forces in countries neighbouring Afghanistan. "Remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) (are being used) by ISIL in northern Iraq. With the commercial availability of low-cost, high-tech RPAS, which are difficult to track, groups such as ISIL can identify and attack targets with a high degree of accuracy," the latest report said.

Another interesting data the UN report gave was the existence of a large number of aircraft of the US and NATO allies falling into the hands of the Taliban. It said the Taliban itself claims "to have 40 operational aircraft. Currently, these are believed to include two Mi-17 helicopters confirmed as operational, along with two UH-60 Black Hawks, two MD-530 Cayuse light helicopters, two Mi-24 helicopter gunships and one fixed-wing transport aircraft, all of which have been observed flying." However, the report says that these aircraft have "little military utility".

So, the fears that Afghanistan would again become a hotbed of international terrorism seem to have turned into harsh reality. The UN report said: "Tensions and security incidents have been reported in the areas of Afghanistan bordering Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, including incidents between Taliban and Iranian border forces." Such violent attacks, especially along the borders of land-locked Afghanistan touching six countries, is one of the reasons preventing the bordering nations from recognising the Taliban regime. Another major extremist outfit now based in Afghanistan is the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), also known as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). It is estimated to have between 1,000 and 2,000 fighters based in Badakhshan province from where it launches attacks or provides operational support to other outfits.

While reviewing the security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan border areas last week, Pakistani armed forces commanders stressed on the continuat¬ion of counter-terrorism operations in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. This was decided even as the Pak-TTP indefinite ceasefire continued. Pakistani media reports last week quoted an official press release to say that Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa, while addressing the 250th Corps Comm¬anders' Conference, "directed formations to maintain operational readiness and efforts to counter terrorism, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Baluchistan".

The statement also comes in the wake of a series of protests against the Taliban by the local people in various parts of KP, as they still remember the horror of the brutalities unleashed by this terror outfit, then led by Mullah Fazlullah. The same Fazlullah has now become the new leader of the Pakistani Taliban or TTP, succeeding Hakimullah Mehsud who was killed in a US drone strike in North Waziristan last week. Fazlullah has a reputation as a ruthless commander prepared to do anything to enforce his uncompromising interpretation of Islamic law. It was under his leadership that in October 2012, then 17-year-old Malala Yousafzai, who was writing a blog on the BBC Urdu website chronicling the horrors of life under Taliban rule, and two other girls were shot by the TTP in Swat. India must take note of these latest developments in Afghanistan. It should raise these concerns, even with the ruling Taliban regime in Afghanistan with which it has established some official contacts and held delegation-level talks in the recent past.

Views expressed are personal