A moment of reckoning?

Pakistan has witnessed numerous tumultuous moments in its chequered history, but the ongoing crisis involving former Prime Minister and leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Imran Khan, on one side, and Army Chief General Asim Munir-led military establishment on the other, is unusual and even unprecedented from a seasoned perspective. The recent weeks have seen fast-paced developments of a kind never seen before, including violent mob attacks on Pakistan Army properties (May 9, 2023), Imran Khan's arrest and subsequent release after unexpectedly strong public reaction, and marked divisions within Pakistan's military brass regarding the top leadership's handling of the unexpected situation.

Imran Khan, who has appeared unruffled and unrepentant in public after his release from arrest, has vowed to continue his fight for what he terms as ‘hakeeki azadi’ (real freedom), openly throwing down the gauntlet at General Asim Munir, the powerful Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). Khan, known for his aggression and doggedness on the field from his younger cricket-playing days, has received support from the highest judiciary, where the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Umar Ata Bandial, has become his savior, granting him legal relief, at least for the time being. The grant of bail by the courts has helped in keeping Khan a free man at a time when he faces the prospect of a long time behind bars in scores of cases lodged against him.

The ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) Federal government, comprising a coalition of major political parties, namely Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Pakistan Peoples' Party, and other smaller parties brought together by the establishment, is beleaguered with serious economic woes and public resentment over the rising cost of living. In this backdrop, the standoff between Imran Khan and Asim Munir could lead the country down a slippery slope, accentuated by the prospect of an economic default. To understand the high-stakes game underway in Pakistan and its likely prognosis, it is important to highlight six key factors that are significantly contributing to the developing situation.

Impending provincial and general elections

The primary cause of the current tensions, which have been brewing for over a year, has been the differences between the ruling establishment and Imran Khan's PTI regarding the conduct of provincial elections scheduled for 2023. After being ousted from power in April 2022, when he failed to prove his majority in the National Assembly, Khan has been rallying his party workers to mobilize the masses for bringing "change" to the country and creating a "new Pakistan." Khan had come to power with the support of the Army establishment in 2018 when the then COAS, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, reportedly backed him against the established parties. However, things didn't go as planned in the following months, as Khan took anti-West positions on critical foreign policy issues and asserted his authority by overruling suggestions to restore trade ties with India. Khan's subsequent fallout with General Bajwa and his differences with Bajwa's chosen successor, Asim Munir (the current COAS), set the stage for a stiff contest that is now unfolding. The situation took a serious turn this year when the Federal Government failed to implement the Supreme Court's order to hold provincial elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) assemblies. Khan, whose ethnic lineage traces back to a Pushtun family settled in Punjab, enjoys widespread popularity across the provinces and is hopeful of a victory for his party. The PTI is also optimistic that it will be able to capitalize on Khan's popularity to secure a majority in the National Assembly after the General Elections. The Federal Government's delaying tactics in holding the elections are a key factor that has shrilled the narrative coming from the PTI camp.

Economic woes and public despondency

The second important factor that has played a key role in precipitating the crisis is the precarious economic situation of Pakistan and the resulting despondency among the common people. Inflation in Pakistan has reached an all-time high, with the latest report indicating it at 36.4% as of April 2023, and the country's currency has depreciated to a historic low after talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began in February to stabilize its market-based exchange rate. It has been reported that Pakistan has less than a month's worth of foreign exchange reserves and is awaiting a delayed bailout package of $1.1 billion from the IMF, which has been postponed since November 2022 due to issues related to fiscal policy adjustments. To receive the next tranche of the $6.5 billion bailout package approved by the IMF in 2019, a staff-level agreement (SLA) needs to be concluded, as it is critical for Pakistan to avoid defaulting on external payment commitments. Although Islamabad has received pledges of additional loans from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, including relief over existing debt repayment, the IMF bailout remains its primary hope for long-term economic sustainability. Overall, the grim economic condition has made imports costlier, slowed industrial growth, prompted government austerity measures, and caused skyrocketing prices of essential commodities. All of this has generated a sense of despondency among the masses, and this factor has played to the advantage of the PTI, with Imran Khan's promise of "real change" and a welfare state (Medina-e-riyasat) leaving an impression on the younger sections of the population.

Hard external choices

Leveraging its geostrategic location, Pakistan has deftly maintained a balancing act between major global actors throughout its post-independence history. Its military and intelligence establishment enjoys close ties with the United States and the United Kingdom, stemming from their longstanding strategic partnership dating back to the Cold War period. Additionally, Pakistan has nurtured a special relationship with China over many decades, rooted in their shared wariness of India. However, the delicate balance between these conflicting relationships is now becoming increasingly tenuous as global geopolitical contestation appears to revolve more around the US-China rivalry.

Pakistan serves as a significant ally of China in its Belt and Road Initiative, with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) being hailed as the flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping's grand vision of modern-day 'Silk Routes.' Undoubtedly, Pakistan plays a crucial role in Beijing's strategy to create a pan-global trade and economic network aimed at establishing a China-centric world order. Nevertheless, Pakistan's growing alignment with China has led to concerns in the West, resulting in a slowdown of US military assistance to Pakistan.

Despite this, the US and the UK have been closely cooperating with Rawalpindi in recent times, urging Pakistan to contribute to their war efforts in support of Ukraine during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This engagement contrasts with Pakistan's desire to improve ties with Russia and procure Russian crude oil at concessional rates.

In a more regional context in Asia, most major powers continue to engage with Islamabad on matters concerning Afghanistan. While Pakistan's influence in Afghan affairs is widely recognized, there remains a lack of trust in Islamabad's ability to support the long-term interests of the Afghan people due to its historical relationship with radical factions within the Taliban. Pakistan has also long been combating the Afghanistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a terrorist group seeking to overthrow democracy and establish Sharia rule in Pakistan. These factors contribute to hesitancy in world capitals to rely on Pakistan for addressing regional issues.

To be continued on next Monday…

The writer is an IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal