A Missed Opportunity

The 30th Conference of Parties (COP) came to an end last Friday, on November 21, in Belem, the Amazonian town of Brazil. The COP marked the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, which was signed in 2015. The US stayed away from the conference as expected, but the other developed countries participated. The outcomes were, however, modest in the context of emissions reductions, even though there was a positive movement in areas of interest to developing countries, such as Climate Finance, the importance of Adaptation and Afforestation. That said, it appears that the conference was another missed opportunity and, like other conferences, failed to forge a consensus on the important issue of a phase-down of fossil fuels. It seems that COP30 also fell prey to the free rider problem or the classic collective action dilemma that faces the lack of supply of global public goods. Moreover, it seems that the action in the fight against climate change was happening elsewhere: in labs of scientists, in climate startups, and in corporate boardrooms. Indeed, the scale of ‘green industry’ that China has developed boggles the mind and is far ahead of any country in the world: whether it is solar or wind capacity and equipment production, electric vehicles or batteries. Let us discuss these issues in more detail.

Focus on implementation?

Two scientific announcements caught the eye in the last month or so: the promise of fusion as an unending source of energy and the announcement by a Chemistry Professor that he was one equation away from solving the climate change problem. I thought that these are the kind of breakthroughs that should be discussed at the COPs, rather than endless negotiations and discussions on draft texts.

In the context of fusion energy, it was reported that net energy gain was achieved first in December 2022 and was repeated in August 2023 (this basically means that more energy was produced than was used in triggering a fusion reaction). Researchers in Japan, Europe and the USA and increased private sector funding have reignited fusion energy research. Some private companies are in the process of developing numerous prototypes. Fusion energy may be widely available within the next decade.

The other scientific announcement was by Professor David MacMillan, who said earlier this month that “We are one catalytic reaction away from solving climate change”. He was referring to a catalyst that would convert atmospheric carbon dioxide into harmless compounds or remove it from the atmosphere.

What happened at COP30

In terms of politics, the key takeaway from COP30 was the shift in the centre of gravity to developing countries such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa. This could be seen in issues like Adaptation, climate finance and climate justice take centre stage. The key agreements were on Adaptation finance, which was to be tripled from existing levels by 2035, with developed countries to raise their contributions. A set of 59 indicators was also adopted to measure the progress on Adaptation in areas like water security, food security, public health, flood control and other resilient infrastructure. Another area which saw traction was tropical forest protection and support to indigenous people and local communities for doing so (the Tropical Forests Forever Facility). Finally, a Just Transition Mechanism was launched to help workers in the transition away from fossil fuels.

From the point of view of developed countries, COP30 offered little cheer. The phase out of fossil fuels was not given the importance it had in earlier conferences. Similarly, from the EU’s standpoint, border taxes were kicked down the road, with the launch of a dialogue.

Conclusion

COP30 ended with the adoption of the Global ‘Mutirao’ text (Mutirao means collective effort) with a focus on Adaptation Finance and protection of tropical forests. While the outcome was underwhelming, the production of a consensus text was perhaps the best part of the conference. The continued gap between the multilateral climate conferences and actual climate action on the ground does raise questions about the COP mechanism and the need to make it relevant to critical issues such as emissions reduction, research and development, financing climate startups, etc. The focus has to shift to dispensing solutions and implementation, and a return to mandatory MRV (Measuring, Reporting and Verification) of action taken.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is the Additional Chief Secretary, Dept of Mass Extension Education and Library Services and Dept of Cooperation, Govt of West Bengal