Recently two bypolls were conducted for the Lok Sabha constituencies of Tehri and Jangipur respectively. The Congress lost the much touted seat of Tehri in Uttarakhand and managed to retain the seat of Jangipur in West Bengal, by a wafer thin majority. With a series of exposes, the national media is pre-occupied with events in its vicinity, thus this bypoll hardly drew any attention. These polls require introspection by all political parties. The polls clearly show that the voter has a good perception and the urban areas have different set of priorities to that of the rural areas. The aam admi exists both in urban and rural areas, but his priority is different depending upon his environment, thus putting the various political parties on the horns of a dilemma. Did the aam admi chose not to vote to show his annoyance with the Congress on account of rising inflation, the restriction on gas cylinders and the scams becoming a daily affair?
Will these issues impact the elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat remains the key question. Three areas bordering Himachal Pradesh, Chakrata, Vikasnagar, and Uttarkashi have similar thinking. People in these areas are affected by the same issues. The impact with the winds of change is very much there. People here have marriage bonds, cultural and religious affinity and are the same pahari stock, thus some amount of like-mindedness is bound to be there.
The Jangipur seat was not contested by the Trinamool Congress. Abhijit Mukherjee, son of Pranab Mukherjee, contested these elections and won by a slender margin of only 2,500 votes against1.28 lakh votes polled by his father. Mala Rajyalakshmi was the dark horse and won the Tehri elections by a whopping margin of nearly 22,000 plus votes. She actually polled less votes in the hills, whereas, in Dehradun, she polled 24,000 plus, thus giving her an unexpected win of around 22,000 plus. With the minorities choosing to abstain and also a large number of Gorkhas voting in her favour, her victory became inevitable, much to the chagrin of Vijay Bahuguna, chief minister of Uttarakhand, whose son Saket was contesting the elections in a clear case of dynasty politics.
The divide between the rural and urban voter is getting larger and larger and political parties need to see the writing on the wall. The age old belief of minorities, who after so much appeasement abstained from voting, caste and reservations, did not work in this bypoll. Both these bypolls have clearly shown that the urban voter in India is ready to exercise his franchise, unlike earlier.
The population of India is gradually shifting from rural to urban areas and delimitation has accordingly been carried out. The expectation and hopes of urban India are quite different from rural areas. Political class on the other hand has conveniently divided India into what they have been used to, caste-based politics, reservation and appeasement of minorities. For a change, the recent trend is showing that the tail represented by the urban voter is wagging the dog represented by the political class. It was the voter in Dehradun that gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an edge and the margin was cut down in Jangipur by those voters who thought inflation and corruption were an issue.
In Mumbai, post 26/11, the voter turns out was low and apathy was shown, it being a security related issue. In the current by polls, these being bread and butter issues, the voter too showed apathy and the final turnout was a mere 41 per cent but they came with a clear mandate to create an anti-Congress wave.
Besides inflation and corruption, the outcome was decided by the voter who was simply fed up because 1.56 lakh users of LPG gas connections are being denied connections based on the verification drive launched by gas companies. People are also hurt by inflation and the last straw was raising of gas cylinder prices by Rs 11, just three or four days before the elections. Could the Congress have waited a few days and then made these announcements? The answer is yes; the other two elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are state level elections and every Parliament seat counts. The pressure point was parliament election and not state elections; therefore, the overall strategic picture was missing thereby leading to voter apathy and a huge anti-Congress wave.
The issues before the urban voter is a little different than the rural voter. Once a person comes to town in search of a job, migration lowers his status. Therefore, housing, gas connection, schooling and medical heathcare become important issues. A house gives a proof of residence, which facilitates mobile connections, ration card and a host of other identifications required. Thus if the urban voter is threatened in any of these issues, even on a day when the voter turn out was low, just 41 per cent, they turned the tables in favour of the BJP. Had there been no voter apathy, the victory margin would have been colossal. One of these assembly segments, Rajpur Road, is a reserved constituency, yet the voter in an urban area hit out at those he felt who were threatening his cooking gas fire at home.
The current economic reforms were hardly discussed and this vote neither clears the air nor sheds any light on these issues. The Congress in these byelections felt shy of these reforms and did not highlight them; therefore, any validation or rejection of them is not possible. Meanwhile, both the Congress and BJP go to Himachal and Gujarat elections with all these daily breaking news taking place, it seems none the wiser or more learned from these elections.
The urban-rural divide needs to be addressed, sooner the better, as the trend is just about setting in. For the Congress creating reforms and getting much needed money for its key scheme, the food security act, this issue of raising the price of gas and restricting it to just six cylinders will turn the urban voter against them, in larger number, more than the kerosene voter in their favour. The odds will be interestingly placed, the rest will be history.
C S Thappa is a retired brigadier.
Will these issues impact the elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat remains the key question. Three areas bordering Himachal Pradesh, Chakrata, Vikasnagar, and Uttarkashi have similar thinking. People in these areas are affected by the same issues. The impact with the winds of change is very much there. People here have marriage bonds, cultural and religious affinity and are the same pahari stock, thus some amount of like-mindedness is bound to be there.
The Jangipur seat was not contested by the Trinamool Congress. Abhijit Mukherjee, son of Pranab Mukherjee, contested these elections and won by a slender margin of only 2,500 votes against1.28 lakh votes polled by his father. Mala Rajyalakshmi was the dark horse and won the Tehri elections by a whopping margin of nearly 22,000 plus votes. She actually polled less votes in the hills, whereas, in Dehradun, she polled 24,000 plus, thus giving her an unexpected win of around 22,000 plus. With the minorities choosing to abstain and also a large number of Gorkhas voting in her favour, her victory became inevitable, much to the chagrin of Vijay Bahuguna, chief minister of Uttarakhand, whose son Saket was contesting the elections in a clear case of dynasty politics.
The divide between the rural and urban voter is getting larger and larger and political parties need to see the writing on the wall. The age old belief of minorities, who after so much appeasement abstained from voting, caste and reservations, did not work in this bypoll. Both these bypolls have clearly shown that the urban voter in India is ready to exercise his franchise, unlike earlier.
The population of India is gradually shifting from rural to urban areas and delimitation has accordingly been carried out. The expectation and hopes of urban India are quite different from rural areas. Political class on the other hand has conveniently divided India into what they have been used to, caste-based politics, reservation and appeasement of minorities. For a change, the recent trend is showing that the tail represented by the urban voter is wagging the dog represented by the political class. It was the voter in Dehradun that gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an edge and the margin was cut down in Jangipur by those voters who thought inflation and corruption were an issue.
In Mumbai, post 26/11, the voter turns out was low and apathy was shown, it being a security related issue. In the current by polls, these being bread and butter issues, the voter too showed apathy and the final turnout was a mere 41 per cent but they came with a clear mandate to create an anti-Congress wave.
Besides inflation and corruption, the outcome was decided by the voter who was simply fed up because 1.56 lakh users of LPG gas connections are being denied connections based on the verification drive launched by gas companies. People are also hurt by inflation and the last straw was raising of gas cylinder prices by Rs 11, just three or four days before the elections. Could the Congress have waited a few days and then made these announcements? The answer is yes; the other two elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are state level elections and every Parliament seat counts. The pressure point was parliament election and not state elections; therefore, the overall strategic picture was missing thereby leading to voter apathy and a huge anti-Congress wave.
The issues before the urban voter is a little different than the rural voter. Once a person comes to town in search of a job, migration lowers his status. Therefore, housing, gas connection, schooling and medical heathcare become important issues. A house gives a proof of residence, which facilitates mobile connections, ration card and a host of other identifications required. Thus if the urban voter is threatened in any of these issues, even on a day when the voter turn out was low, just 41 per cent, they turned the tables in favour of the BJP. Had there been no voter apathy, the victory margin would have been colossal. One of these assembly segments, Rajpur Road, is a reserved constituency, yet the voter in an urban area hit out at those he felt who were threatening his cooking gas fire at home.
The current economic reforms were hardly discussed and this vote neither clears the air nor sheds any light on these issues. The Congress in these byelections felt shy of these reforms and did not highlight them; therefore, any validation or rejection of them is not possible. Meanwhile, both the Congress and BJP go to Himachal and Gujarat elections with all these daily breaking news taking place, it seems none the wiser or more learned from these elections.
The urban-rural divide needs to be addressed, sooner the better, as the trend is just about setting in. For the Congress creating reforms and getting much needed money for its key scheme, the food security act, this issue of raising the price of gas and restricting it to just six cylinders will turn the urban voter against them, in larger number, more than the kerosene voter in their favour. The odds will be interestingly placed, the rest will be history.
C S Thappa is a retired brigadier.