Against the backdrop of India's towering economic aspirations lies a grim narrative, one that the India Employment Report 2024, released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD), brings to the forefront with unsettling clarity. The rising tide of youth unemployment, with an astounding 83 per cent of the unemployed workforce being young people, coupled with a dramatic rise in educated but jobless youth from 35.2 per cent in 2000 to 65.7 per cent in 2022, sends out a clear message—India’s demographic dividend may also become a demographic disaster. The reiteration that educated youths are facing significantly higher unemployment levels is a wake-up call to a systemic malfunction. On one hand, it questions the efficacy of India’s education system in equipping its youth with employable skills, and on the other, it throws light on the harsh reality of a burgeoning knowledge economy that sidelines its educated masses.
Despite notable shifts in labour market dynamics post-2019, indicating a superficial improvement in employment statistics, the underlying quality and sustainability of new jobs remain questionable. The report's caution against interpreting these as signs of genuine progress is a reminder of the complex, multifaceted nature of economic recovery, especially in a post-pandemic world where economic distress has become a recurring theme.
The structural inability of non-farm sectors to absorb the workforce exiting agriculture has been a persistent issue, exacerbated by the informal nature of nearly 90 per cent of employment. Furthermore, the alarming statistics revealing a significant portion of the youth's inability to perform basic digital tasks are indicative of a profound skill gap. Also, the gender gap in employment presents another layer of complexity, with highly educated young women facing enormous challenges in securing employment, thus highlighting a stark underutilisation of human capital. This, coupled with the continued social inequalities affecting Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, underscores the urgent need for targeted policy interventions that are designed to bridge these multifaceted divides.
The report also rightly points out the necessity for a shift towards labour-intensive manufacturing to absorb the millions of youths entering the labour force annually. The looming shadow of technological advancements, particularly artificial intelligence, while promising to revolutionise productivity, also threatens to further disrupt traditional employment paradigms. India's preparation for this impending shift appears tentative at best, with the report calling for a more decisive and inclusive approach to harnessing technology for employment generation.
The narrative that has come to the fore is not merely about employment but about the quality and nature of employment opportunities available to India’s youth. The increasing trend towards contractual jobs, with a significant decline in social security coverage, is a ticking time bomb for social stability. The digital and gig economies, while offering temporary avenues for employment, also present challenges in terms of job security, working conditions, and labour rights, necessitating a revaluation of regulatory frameworks to protect workers in these emerging sectors. As India stands on the cusp of reaping its demographic dividend, the India Employment Report 2024 serves as a crucial reminder of the challenges ahead. The future of India's youth, and indeed of the nation itself, depends on the choices made today to navigate this complex (un)employment maze.