Kyiv: With US-brokered Ukraine peace talks on hold due to the war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to try to expand his military gains via new offensives against his southern neighbour that could put even more pressure on Kyiv.
Windfall revenues from surging global oil prices are filling Moscow’s war coffers and US air defence assets are being drained quickly by Iranian attacks across the Gulf, raising concerns that little will be left available for Ukraine in the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Ukraine’s European allies have promised to maintain their steadfast support, but bickering over a major 90 billion euro ($106 billion) European Union loan to cover Kyiv’s military and economic needs for two years has reflected the mounting challenges.
The refusal by NATO allies to commit naval assets to help restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drawn an angry rebuke from President Donald Trump, highlighting another emerging fault line that is fraught with potential repercussions for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to hold Washington’s attention by offering its expertise in defending against Iranian Shahed drones, sending over 200 military experts to the Gulf. Trump, however, has shrugged off Zelenskyy’s offer of help, saying the US doesn’t need Kyiv’s assistance.
As new signs of a rift emerge in Western alliances, Putin and his generals are pondering plans for the spring and summer campaign across more than the 1,200-kilometre (about 750-mile) front line.
The Russian military appears to be readying for a renewed push to claim the part of the eastern Donetsk region that remains under Ukraine’s control, as well as possible offensives in several other sectors.
Analysts have observed that Moscow has been building up reserves and its operations are expected to gain tempo as the spring warmth dries the terrain.