Ankara (Turkiye): Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power 20 years ago riding a wave of public outrage toward the previous
government’s handling of a deadly earthquake.
Now, three months away from an election, Erdogan’s political future could hinge on how the public perceives his government’s response to a similarly devastating natural disaster.
“It is going to be a big challenge for Erdogan, who has established a brand for himself as an autocratic figure but an efficient one that gets the job done,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkiye expert at the Washington Institute and the author of several books on Erdogan.
The aftermath of a massive earthquake isn’t the only parallel to the election of 2002. Back then, Turkiye was in the midst of a financial crisis that was punishing its economy.
Today, Turkiye’s economy is being hammered by skyrocketing inflation, and Erdogan has faced widespread criticism for his handling of the problem, which has left millions of poor and middle class people struggling to make ends meet.
Erdogan’s political rivals have already begun criticising his government’s response to the earthquake, saying that over the course of two decades he failed to prepare the country for the inevitable.
Experts point to lax enforcement of building codes as a major reason why this week’s quakes were so deadly. But with less than 100 days before the election, Erdogan’s rivals have yet to put forth a candidate to run against him.
The memory of how Bulent Ecevit, the late prime minister, was undone by his poor handling of financial and natural disasters two decades ago
must be on Erdogan’s mind as he tries to contain the twin problems he faces today, analysts say.
The 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck on Feb. 6 was followed nine hours later by another powerful quake, killing more than 24,000 people in both Turkiye and Syria.
The devastation spreads across a wide swath of Turkiye, affecting 10 provinces in the country’s southeast, and it has strained the ability of domestic and foreign crews to quickly execute rescue efforts.