Potential arms-for-minerals deal inspires hope, scepticism

Update: 2025-02-16 19:03 GMT

Kirovohrad Region (Ukraine): The mineral ilmenite is extracted from mounds of sand deep in the earth and refined using a method that summons the force of gravity, resulting in a substance that glimmers like a moonlit sky.

Ukraine boasts vast reserves of ilmenite — a key element used to produce titanium — in the heavy mineral sands that stretch for miles along the country’s embattled east.

Much of it, as with all of Ukraine’s critical minerals industry, is underdeveloped because of war as well as onerous state policies.

That is poised to change if US President Donald Trump’s administration agrees to a deal with Ukraine to exchange critical minerals for continued American military aid.

In the central region of Kirovohrad, the ilmenite open-pit mine is a canyon of precious deposits that its owner is keen to develop with US companies. But many unknowns stand in the way of turning these riches into profit: cost, licensing terms and whether such a deal will be underpinned by security guarantees.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday at the Munich Security Conference that he did not permit his ministers to sign a mineral resource agreement with the US because the current version is not “ready to protect us, our interests.”

Ukrainian businessmen with knowledge of the minerals industry also privately expressed scepticism about whether a

deal is viable.

The capital-intensive industry is unlikely to yield results in years, if not decades, as geological data is either limited or classified.

Many question what conditions American companies are willing to risk to build up the industry and whether existing Ukrainian policies that have so far deterred local businessmen will accommodate foreign investors.

Ukraine is considering a minerals-for-arms deal with the US, exchanging titanium and rare earth elements for security guarantees. Velta CEO Andriy Brodsky believes US investment would ensure protection.

While interest grows, bureaucratic hurdles and public scepticism persist. The sector remains underdeveloped, with concerns over ownership, high capital costs, and the complexities of foreign partnerships. 

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