Islamic State: Despite fall of its caliphate, group continues to influence terrorism

Portsmouth (UK): At 3:15 am on New Year’s Day, a 42-year-old US citizen and army veteran from Texas called Shamsud-Din Jabbar drove a rented pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, killing 15 people and injuring at least 35 more.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) called the attack an “act of terrorism” and said that Jabbar appeared to have been motivated by the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organisation. The group’s infamous black flag was recovered from the back of his vehicle, and he had posted videos online proclaiming his support for IS.

We do not know whether Jabbar, who was fatally shot by police, was a genuine IS operative. But the style of his attack was consistent with those committed on behalf of the group in the past. Vehicles were used to target civilians in the 2017 attack on London’s Westminster Bridge, as well as in Berlin and the French city of Nice in 2016.

Jabbar’s attack demonstrates the resilience of IS despite its lack of territorial control, as well as its commitment to inspire lone-wolf attacks in an attempt to gain widespread coverage.

IS gained global attention in 2014 when it captured large parts of Iraq and Syria and established a so-called Islamic caliphate. Between 2014 and 2016, when the group was at the height of its powers, IS spread fear worldwide and managed to recruit thousands of men and women from nearly 80 countries. Ten organisations classified as “IS affiliates” by the US National Counterterrorism Centre committed more than 1,000 attacks combined during this period.

By 2019, IS had lost all of its territory due to the efforts of a US-led military coalition, alongside Kurdish and Iraqi forces. However, the group had already begun preparing for a new structure. The group transitioned towards a more clandestine network of decentralised cells, and takes advantage of unstable states primarily in sub-Saharan Africa to facilitate the movement of weapons, equipment and fighters.IS continues to focus on mobilising and recruiting online to sustain operations, using propaganda.

This has led to high-profile attacks, including the March 2024 assault on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, which killed 145. Intelligence agencies foiled others, such as the cancellation of three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna after arrests were made. Jabbar’s use of technology, including Meta smart glasses and electric vehicles, presents a challenge for security forces.

His military background raises concerns over extremism in the armed forces, with research showing an increasing trend. While details of Jabbar’s radicalisation remain scarce, the case highlights the unpredictable nature of the process.