Wars That Starve the World

The spectre of war refuses to cease haunting the world and its food. Just when the scars inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic on global food systems were beginning to heal, and the tremors of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were settling into an uneasy normalcy, fresh and even more menacing conflicts have erupted. The ongoing military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the disruption of the Red Sea shipping lanes, and the open war between Pakistan and Afghanistan have collectively created a geopolitical maelstrom that threatens to unravel whatever stability the global food and agriculture sector had painstakingly rebuilt. For a country like India, which has emerged as a beacon of food security amidst global turmoil, the implications are both a challenge and an opportunity.

New Theatre of War and its Fallout on Food

The Russia-Ukraine war of 2022 has demonstrated how conflict in one part of the world can send food prices spiralling across continents. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for nearly 30 per cent of global wheat exports, 32 per cent of barley, and over 50 per cent of sunflower oil. The disruption of the Black Sea grain corridor sent shockwaves through vulnerable nations. India, after initially offering to step in, was compelled to impose an export ban in May 2022 due to a severe heatwave that ravaged domestic production forecasts.

Fast forward to 2026, and the lessons remain unlearnt. The military confrontation between the US-Israel alliance and Iran has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 27 per cent of the world’s oil exports, 20 per cent of global LNG, and one-third of traded urea fertiliser transit. Shipping through the Strait has declined sharply. Simultaneously, the Red Sea has turned hostile, with vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost. In effect, two critical maritime chokepoints have been rendered perilous.

Impact on India: Fertiliser, the Achilles Heel

For India, the most immediate consequence is the disruption of fertiliser supplies. Our agriculture’s dependence on imports — approximately 90 per cent of phosphatic fertilisers and 100 per cent of potash — constitutes a structural vulnerability. India imports about 30 per cent of its fertiliser requirement, with West Asia accounting for a large share. Qatar, the UAE and Oman together supply nearly 76 per cent of India’s sulphur imports, while Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran are key exporters of urea.

With LNG supply disruptions and rising costs, India’s fertiliser sector faces a potential crisis ahead of the Kharif season. Global urea prices have already surged. If the blockade persists, the availability of urea, DAP and other inputs could be constrained, impacting sowing and food production. The fertiliser subsidy burden would rise further.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: A Humanitarian Catastrophe

The Pakistan-Afghanistan hostilities have closed borders and disrupted trade. For Afghanistan, already deeply food-insecure, this is catastrophic. Even before the conflict, 95 per cent of households reportedly lacked sufficient food. Now, with supply lines severed and aid declining, an estimated 17.4 million Afghans face severe food insecurity. The mass deportation of over 2.5 million Afghans has further strained resources. The World Food Programme has reported a sharp rise in malnutrition.

Pakistan itself is not immune. Wheat production is expected to decline, with key regions affected by conflict. The spectre of food shortages looms over an already fragile economy.

India has, in recent years, sent more than 60 million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan through humanitarian channels. Our role as a responsible food provider has been acknowledged. The question now is whether regional instability will impede this engagement.

The Global Hunger Landscape

According to the World Food Programme’s 2026 Global Outlook, 318 million people face acute hunger worldwide — more than double the pre-pandemic figure. Of these, 41 million are at Emergency levels or worse. Two simultaneous famines have been confirmed — in Gaza and parts of Sudan. Conflict drives 69 per cent of global hunger, while climate shocks compound the crisis.

The FAO Food Price Index reversed course in February 2026, rising to 125.3 points — driven by higher cereal and oil prices. Global wheat production is projected to decline. These are not abstract statistics; they translate into empty stomachs across the Global South.

India: The Bastion of Food Security

Against this backdrop, India’s food and agriculture story stands out. Food grain production in 2024-25 touched a record 357.73 million tonnes. Four crops — rice, wheat, soybean and groundnut — registered record output. Rice reached 150.18 million tonnes, while wheat climbed to 117.94 million tonnes. Pulses and oilseeds also recorded growth.

The livestock sector continues its strong trajectory. Milk production stood at 248 million tonnes, with per capita availability well above the global average. Egg production touched 149.11 billion, while fish production surged to 19.78 million tonnes. Total meat production stood at 10.5 million tonnes.

Agriculture contributes approximately 16 per cent of GDP and supports 46 per cent of the population. Growth over the last five years has been robust, driven by livestock and fisheries. The future of agricultural growth will increasingly be defined by these sectors.

Wheat Exports: A Full Circle

A notable development has been the Government’s decision in February 2026 to lift the wheat export ban imposed in May 2022. India has permitted the export of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, along with additional wheat products. This was enabled by record production and comfortable stock levels.

This is a confident step. Indian wheat re-entering the global market sends a signal of food security strength and addresses diaspora demand. One hopes volumes will increase as India strengthens its position in the global grain trade.

The Larger Picture: Lessons for Policy

The recurrence of war and disruption underscores the need for a strategically anticipatory food policy.

First, fertiliser vulnerability must be addressed. Dependence on imports exposes the sector to geopolitical risks. Diversification, buffer stocks, domestic production and alternative fertilisers must form the pillars of a new security architecture.

Second, disruption of trade routes reinforces the need to invest in food processing and value addition. A nation producing such vast quantities cannot afford large-scale wastage. Food processing must be treated as a core national priority.

Third, the global hunger crisis offers India an opportunity to position itself as a responsible food superpower. We have the production, surpluses and capability. What is needed is a coherent food diplomacy strategy.

Finally, the growing conflicts across the world make it clear that food is no longer merely an economic commodity. It is a strategic asset, a diplomatic tool, and a humanitarian obligation. India, with its resilient farm sector, must not squander this advantage. The world is hungry, and it is looking at us.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is Director General, ICFA, and former Secretary, Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying, GoI