The Caracas Precedent

In the pre-dawn hours of January 3, 2026, the skies above Caracas were shattered by the roar of an unprecedented military operation. City dwellers, jolted awake by explosions, bore witness to a scene once thought relegated to the height of the Cold War. In a high-stakes raid, U.S. Delta Force operators, supported by the CIA, apprehended the Venezuelan President and his wife. Within hours, they were flown to the United States to face federal drug and weapons charges - an act that has sent shockwaves through the international community.

Long Shadow of the Monroe Doctrine

To understand this crisis, one must look back to the early 20th century. Following the discovery of massive oil deposits after World War I, U.S. influence in Venezuela deepened. Under the three-decade rule of General Juan Vicente Gómez, U.S. giants like Standard Oil (now ExxonMobil) were famously allowed to help draft the nation’s petroleum laws. Washington later supported the regime of General Marcos Pérez Jiménez, who received the Legion of Merit from President Eisenhower before being ousted in 1958.

The contemporary friction began with the “Bolivarian Revolution” led by Hugo Chávez in 1999 and continued under his successor. By nationalising natural resources and forging ties with Cuba, Russia, China, and Iran, Venezuela became a bastion of anti-imperialist resistance and became a target of sustained U.S. pressure, including embargoes and sanctions that have crippled the domestic economy.

The abduction of the President is a modern echo of the Monroe Doctrine—a 200-year-old policy asserting the Western Hemisphere as an exclusive U.S. sphere of influence. As Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel observed, this expansionist trend is woven into U.S. history, dating back to the Louisiana Purchase of 1803 and the systematic expulsion of European powers from the Americas.

Geopolitics and the “Oil Prize”

Critics argue the raid was not motivated by legal justice but by geopolitical anxiety. Washington has watched with growing alarm as China displaced the U.S. as the primary trading partner for Brazil, Chile, and Peru. China’s footprint now includes a mega-port in Peru and a space tracking station in Bolivia. Significantly, the Caracas raid occurred only hours after a meeting between the Venezuelan leadership and a special Chinese delegation.

The parallels to the 2003 invasion of Iraq are unmistakable. Just as the “weapons of mass destruction” pretext was used to secure Iraqi oil fields, the charges of narco-terrorism against the Venezuelan leadership are seen by many as a smoke-screen for seizing the world’s largest proven oil reserves—a lucrative “prize” for American industry.

Internal Strife and Imperial Ideology

While the President faced genuine domestic challenges—including a shrinking base, accusations of authoritarianism, and a revitalised opposition—the U.S. military intervention has reframed the crisis as a struggle for national survival. Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López released a defiant video statement condemning the “foreign military presence” as pro-government demonstrations broke out across the capital.

By launching a military operation to arrest a foreign head of state and subsequently declaring that Venezuela would be placed under “American supervision,” the U.S. administration has embraced a transparently imperialist ideology. The boast that the U.S. is now “respected like never before” rings hollow against the backdrop of a rising death toll and the dismantling of diplomatic norms.

A Polarised Globe

The reaction to the Caracas raid was swift, reflecting a world deeply divided between those who saw the end of a dictatorship and those who feared the end of the international rule of law.

* The UN Response: A spokesperson for Secretary-General António Guterres termed the operation a “dangerous precedent,” stating, “The Secretary-General is deeply concerned that the rules of international law have not been respected.”

* Latin American Discord: The region’s response was split along ideological lines. Argentina’s President Javier Milei celebrated the move, saluting the “decisive resolve” of the U.S. In contrast, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum issued a sharp rebuke, declaring that the Americas “do not belong” to any single power and warning that “sovereign peoples must decide their own destinies.” Brazil’s President Lula da Silva condemned the “wanton violation” of Venezuelan sovereignty.

* The Global South’s Alarm: Beyond the Americas, the African Union and CARICOM (the Caribbean Community) expressed grave concern. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa “utterly rejected” the action, framing it as a threat to the territorial integrity of all UN member states. Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and Malaysia called the abduction a “baleful precedent” that could embolden other powers to act unilaterally in their own contested regions, such as the South China Sea. India’s Ministry of External Affairs urged “peaceful dialogue” to ensure regional stability, advising its nationals in Caracas to exercise extreme caution.

* Great Power Condemnation: Russia’s UN Ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, accused the U.S. of proclaiming itself a “supreme judge” with the right to invade any country at will.

* China’s Foreign Ministry described the raid as a “hegemonic act” and a “blatant use of force” that threatens the peace and security of the entire Caribbean.

* Calculated Western Cautiousness: Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand issued a carefully worded statement calling on “all parties to exercise restraint,” notably avoiding a direct endorsement of the U.S. military tactics.

* U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer echoed this sentiment, stating he “shed no tears” for the Maduro regime but emphasised the need to “establish the facts” regarding the legality of the operation.

* French President Emmanuel Macron initially suggested Venezuelans “can only rejoice,” though the French Foreign Ministry later tempered this by warning that the operation “runs counter to the principle of non-use of force.”

Challenge to the Modern Nation-State

The forcible abduction of a sitting President is the most significant challenge to international law since the 1989 invasion of Panama. It strikes at the very heart of the Westphalian concept of the nation-state—a sovereign entity with territorial integrity—born of the 18th-century revolutions and codified after World War II.

If the “Caracas Precedent” goes unchallenged, the global institutions designed to protect the sovereignty of individual states will face an existential crisis. The world now watches to see if the international order will bend to the will of a single superpower, or if the principles of territorial sovereignty can survive this new era of militarised statecraft.

Views expressed are personal. Fr. John Felix Raj is the VC, and Prabhat Kumar Datta is Adjunct Professor, Xavier Law School; both at St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata