Tempest of disorder

As if political turbulence was not enough for a beleaguered Pakistan, the unrelenting wave of terror attacks also continues unabated. On July 30, a devastating attack unfolded in Bajaur, Pakistan's north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, resulting in the tragic loss of at least 44 lives and leaving more than 200 individuals injured. The target of this attack was the conservative Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party (JUI-F), a partner in the government coalition. Executed by a suicide bomber, the assailant detonated his explosives' vest in close proximity to the stage where several senior leaders of the party were seated. Preliminary investigations have implicated the Islamic State (IS), an entity operating in Afghanistan that is believed to be in conflict with the Afghan Taliban. However, as of now, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

The rally, organized in anticipation of upcoming elections later this year, had over 500 supporters who had gathered when the tragic blast occurred. Analysts posit that this attack was a deliberate effort to eliminate the JUI-F from the contest prior to the parliamentary elections. Last year, IS had asserted responsibility for violent assaults on religious scholars associated with the party, which boasts of an extensive network of mosques and madrassas across the north and west regions of the country. The JUI-F remains a formidable force with a substantial following among fundamentalists.

Both the Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and the President, Arif Alvi, unequivocally condemned the attack and urged officials to offer every feasible form of assistance to the wounded and the bereaved families. It's worth recalling that the JUI-F is led by the Islamist cleric Fazlur Rehman. Initially known as a firebrand hardliner, he has, in recent years, adopted a more moderate political stance to form alliances with secular parties for purely political expediency.

Moreover, Bajaur stands among several remote districts bordering Afghanistan, historically recognized for their association with militancy. This district previously served as a stronghold for the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and maintained a close alliance with Afghanistan's Taliban government. However, the Pakistani military later expelled them from the area. Nevertheless, the Afghan Taliban's resurgence to power in Afghanistan during August 2021 has bolstered groups like the TTP. The TTP had unilaterally terminated a ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government in November and subsequently intensified attacks across the nation, primarily targeting security setups and officials.

It's also worth recalling that back in January, a TTP suicide bomber detonated explosives in a mosque within a police compound in the north-western city of Peshawar, resulting in the tragic deaths of over a hundred individuals. Subsequently, the Taliban government in Afghanistan condemned the blast, denying any involvement, in a statement issued by their spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, while the TTP countered with a statement suggesting that the bombing was orchestrated to sow discord among Islamists. This theory seems plausible, though it aligns conveniently with the authorities' narrative.

Pakistan's military contends that militants are operating from safe havens in Afghanistan. The bombing on July 30 represents one of the most egregious attacks in the north-west region since 2014 when a Taliban assault on an army-run school in Peshawar led to the loss of 147 lives, predominantly schoolchildren.

Evidently following a pattern, the recent surge in extremist attacks in Pakistan signifies a resurgence since last year, when the ceasefire between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamabad disintegrated. A recent report submitted to the UN Security Council suggested the possibility of the TTP seeking a merger with Al Qaeda, envisioning an umbrella organization encompassing all militant groups in South Asia. If this holds true, it presents a menacing prospect. Pakistan has consistently placed blame on Afghanistan for failing to uphold its commitment to preventing the use of its territory for terrorist activities against Pakistan.

What is unsettling, however, is the coexistence of IS and Al Qaeda on Pakistani soil, with indications that the former may have orchestrated the recent Bajaur suicide bombings. The TTP has already proven to be a thorn in Pakistan's side, its involvement evident in earlier suicide bombings in Peshawar and Karachi. Its adversary, the IS, appears to be exerting its influence in Pakistan as well. This emerging pattern underscores the glaring failures within Pakistan's intelligence and security architecture. With India being an immediate neighbour, it's imperative for its guardians to be on alert and heighten their vigilance as well, especially if these elements pose a potential threat to Indian security interests.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shebhaz Sharif, has recently conveyed to the media a strong possibility of ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's return to Islamabad, assuming the role of Pakistan's Prime Minister once again in the near future. It will be intriguing to observe whether Nawaz's extensive experience in governance can contribute to curtailing the escalating trend of terror within Pakistan.

The writer is an IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal