Perfect pandemonium!

Pakistan is heading towards chaos and uncertainty. This was more than evident on May 15 when ruling dispensation’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), led his Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUl-F) cadres to an unruly march, encouraging them to scale the boundaries of Supreme Court (SC) in an apparent display of organisational capabilities and strength. This was obviously to counter the growing popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan who, of late, has been in the news for taking on the judiciary, security establishment and the military hands on as part of a frontal assault on the government machinery. This gives rise to the possibilities of Imran Khan getting his noose tightened for being arrested and even tried for treason and attempts to subvert the government. The ongoing developments, therefore, are entering into a dramatic mode with suspense and perplexity.

In this context, it is crucial to discuss threadbare the recent events in Pakistan, beginning with the conviction and subsequent arrest of former Prime Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan. These events have led to a series of problems, plunging the country into a complex situation. It may be recapitulated that Imran Khan was found guilty of corruption in the Al-Qadir Trust and Toshakhana cases, and his arrest, as depicted in the images, confirmed that the country was, and is, in a panic mode.

Contrary to his supremacist image, Imran Khan made a surprising and dramatic move on May 13 by addressing the nation through a video. In his speech, he blamed the then Pakistani establishment for the excesses committed against Bengalis, which ultimately led to the independence and creation of Bangladesh. Imran Khan also claimed to have been present in Dhaka during that critical juncture, having travelled there to participate in an "under nineteen" cricket match. He stated that the aircraft that transported him back to Pakistan was the last one to leave Dhaka before the liberation struggle of 1971 unfolded. However, it is intriguing to note that the timing of his video message coincides with his prominent role in the ongoing events in Pakistan. Is he insinuating the emergence of the Baloch separatist movement in Pakistan, or is he attempting to gain the sympathy of the Pakistani masses to isolate the military, which is now his primary adversary? This remains unclear.

Based on the ongoing developments, it also appears likely that Pakistan, embroiled in chaos and panic, is now divided, affecting all institutions. For instance, the army is sharply polarized regarding how to handle Imran Khan before and after his arrest. Additionally, the judiciary is split, with the Chief Justice of Pakistan clearly favoring Imran Khan while many others oppose him. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is equally affected by internal divisions, as Imran Khan has consistently attacked a serving Major General, accusing him of plotting to kill him. Interestingly, the Corps Commander's house in Lahore, also known as Jinnah House, was vandalized on May 9. Now, the Army Chief is calling for action against the perpetrators, but there are reports that a section of middle-level army officers refused to comply with orders to stop the looting, implying their support for Imran and his allies. Consequently, the judiciary, armed forces, ISI, and political establishment are significantly divided in their approach to handling Imran Khan and the current crisis, which is a matter of concern.

Crucially, many analysts are also not shying away from asserting that Pakistan is undergoing a civil strife similar to the recent divide in the Sudanese armed forces. In sum, as the country descends into chaos, it looks to be in the grip of extreme uncertainty, and anything may erupt any time, causing consequences of extreme nature which even the military may find it difficult to handle. These developments merit a close watch, as the military, which has always been calling the shots, is now looking indecisive. Similarly, the political establishment led by Prime Minister Shebhaz Sharif seems clueless about how to salvage the situation. The President and the Chief Justice are currently aligned, while Shebhaz's elder brother Nawaz Sharif, ruling from London, is also unable to address the ongoing problems.

Events are unfolding rapidly, with each incident overshadowing the previous one, amid reports of the Army attempting to close ranks to teach Imran a lesson. Such punitive actions have been an integral part of Pakistani military history. However, what is written today may stand out of date by the time this piece hits the press.

The writer is an IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal