New Leaf of Thaw

With the exit of erstwhile Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the advent of Mark Joseph Carney as the new Prime Minister of Canada, fresh hopes have been raised of putting Indo-Canadian ties back on track, which had suffered a derailment due to Trudeau’s baseless suspicion of India for carrying out anti-Canadian activities on Canadian soil—especially the alleged killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in a Gurdwara in Surrey, Vancouver, in 2023. The withdrawal and expulsion of a significant number of diplomats from both Missions had impaired relations between India and Canada. Trudeau’s indiscreet decisions and administrative failures led to a communal divide between Hindus and Sikhs within the Indian diaspora in Canada, which witnessed a string of violent activities.

However, with Carney’s arrival and the defeat of Sikh separatist activist Jagmeet Singh, things have certainly brightened and paved the way for a rapprochement between the two countries. Most importantly, it is now assessed that the new Canadian Prime Minister will restore bilateral ties, return to diplomatic sanity, not encourage Sikh separatism, and will not allow any anti-India activities by Khalistani supporters—which had included virulent anti-India propaganda, vandalism of Indian diplomatic Missions/Consulates, and the desecration of Hindu places of worship.

In a swift move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Canadian Prime Minister Mark Joseph Carney on the resurrection of the Liberal Party in Canada, the resetting of ties between New Delhi and Ottawa, and the upholding of democratic values. The Indian Prime Minister’s congratulatory comments, coming in the wake of the regime change after over two years of strained ties, signal the possibility of a visible amelioration of bilateral relations as the Carney government assumes charge. Further, Carney taking over from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—who had uneasy relations with India—clearly indicates a thaw in bilateral ties. Earlier, Carney had posted a message on social media condemning the Pahalgam terrorist attack.

Moreover, the poor electoral performance of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the resignation of its leader Jagmeet Singh, who had pro-Khalistan leanings, also provide a positive opportunity to restore ties. India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties, as observed by Prime Minister Modi on social media. He further said he looks forward to working with the new Canadian Prime Minister to strengthen their partnership and explore greater opportunities for people from both countries.

According to Suhasini Haidar, a well-known diplomat and media person, eyes will now be on whether Prime Minister Carney, a former Governor of the Bank of Canada and previously of the Bank of England, will restart talks on the India-Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) trade pact, which were suspended after the Nijjar investigation began. It may be recalled that Hardeep Singh Nijjar was killed in June 2023 and charges were made against India regarding his killing. Another point of interest is whether Carney will invite India as a special guest to the G7 Summit scheduled in the Canadian city of Alberta later this year.

In Canada, analysts are now urging the new Carney government to prioritise re-engaging with India. According to ex-diplomat David McKinnon, however “serious” the Nijjar case may be, it should not “dictate the entirety” of Canadian foreign policy. Instead, Canada must stay focused on the larger picture of an unstable, rapidly evolving global order where economic and security partnerships are now more essential than ever. Letting investigations and court proceedings unfold without unnecessary political interference is key to restoring dialogue and finding a potential way forward—just as it was in a related case in the United States, McKinnon wrote in an analytical study for the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada think tank. He articulated that there were opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India, adding that there needs to be a shared sense of values around that commercial relationship.

At the end of the day, Carney is now the Prime Minister and Poilievre is in limbo after losing his seat. For India-Canada relations, there is definitely some good news. There is no way things can worsen further, and Jagmeet Singh no longer holds any power to carry out parliamentary political crusades against India. Jagmeet Singh, the pro-Khalistani, not only lost—which is a demoralising factor for the entire separatist campaign in Canada—but also came a poor third in the elections. His debacle needs to be politically capitalised on to support fresh Indo-Canada endeavours for the improvement of bilateral ties. However, critics caution against expecting miracles. Both major parties still have Khalistani factions within them that the current leaderships have accepted. Possibly, there will be less open hostility towards India, but the core problems still remain. Taking the cue from this, it would be in the interest of both India and Canada to deal afresh with the Khalistani problem, and the new Canadian leadership should also proactively collaborate with India—nipping such threats in the bud to thwart any possibilities of reviving separatist activities under the new regime.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal