Growth in an Age of Uncertainty

I recently had the opportunity to speak at the inaugural conference of Bharat Ki Soch, centred on the theme “Navigating Growth and Development in Global Uncertain Times.” My address was shaped by a larger reflection that the world is undergoing a deep transition, and for India, this moment demands not only economic recalibration but also civilizational introspection rooted in its own intellectual traditions.

Let us begin with a simple observation – uncertainty has become the defining feature in the operating context of today’s economic ecosystem and the evolving geopolitical environment. Geopolitical realignments are redrawing trade and security relationships, economic disruptions are challenging long-standing growth models, and technological advances are transforming work and governance. All this, along with growing climate stress are reshaping the foundations of development itself. These forces do not operate in isolation. Together, they are altering the very assumptions on which global prosperity was built.

The COVID-19 pandemic remains a powerful reference point in this conversation. It exposed how deeply interconnected and at the same time, how fragile global systems had become. Supply chains that once stretched seamlessly across continents fractured almost overnight. Since then, shifting trade rules, tariff changes and rising geopolitical tensions have only reinforced the need for production systems that are secure, sustainable and geographically balanced.

Beneath these visible disruptions lies a deeper structural strain in the global economy. Resource-intensive growth and debt-fuelled expansion are proving increasingly difficult to sustain. According to the International Monetary Fund, global debt crossed USD 251 trillion in 2024, heightening concerns around financial stability. Many developing economies now face a heightened risk of debt distress, with implications that extend far beyond national borders. Even advanced economies have experienced fiscal and political disruptions in recent times, underscoring the reality that no system is immune.

Amid all this, climate change adds yet another layer of complexity. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Reports for 2024 and 2025 identify environmental risks, particularly extreme weather events, among the most severe long-term threats facing the world. As climate shocks grow more frequent, resilience is no longer a matter of environmental responsibility alone, it has become central to economic planning, food security and social stability.

Demographic trends further complicate this landscape. Ageing populations in much of Europe and East Asia are slowing growth and straining public finances. A recent assessment by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development suggests that shrinking workforces could steadily erode per capita income growth in these regions over the coming decades. India, by contrast, stands at a very different demographic juncture. With a predominantly young population, the country faces a significant opportunity, one that will be realised only through forward-looking policy choices. In this context, the ability to generate productive employment creation, investment in skills and adaptability to technological change will determine whether this demographic moment becomes a dividend or a liability.

Food security is another critical concern. As global demand rises, cultivable land remains finite and climate stress intensifies. In 2024, one in twelve people worldwide faced hunger, and nearly 2.3 billion experienced moderate or severe food insecurity. Looking ahead, developing countries may need to double food production by 2050—a formidable task in an era defined by resource constraints.

Overlaying all these challenges is the fastest technological transformation humanity has ever witnessed. Artificial intelligence, automation and digital platforms are reshaping production, employment and governance. While these technologies offer unprecedented opportunities, they also raise questions about job displacement, data security and the concentration of economic power. The challenge before nations is to ensure that innovation remains an enabler of inclusive and resilient growth rather than a source of new vulnerabilities.

Despite this turbulent global backdrop, India’s economic performance has shown notable resilience with GDP growth projected at 7.4% in FY26. Strong domestic demand, rising investment and a rapidly expanding digital ecosystem have helped sustain growth momentum. Yet, as we chart this promising path, it is essential to remain mindful of the shifting global landscape, to anticipate risks, adapt with agility and ensure that our development remains both sustainable and future-ready.

This is where, I believe, India’s civilisational wisdom becomes especially relevant.

For over 5,000 years, Bharat has been a cradle of ideas, shaping thinking on economy, governance, ethical statecraft, balanced consumption, and holistic well-being that remain deeply meaningful even in today’s complex environment.

These ideas find expression across India’s civilizational history. Emperor Ashoka’s edicts expanded the idea of dharma from personal morality to state responsibility, emphasising welfare, environmental stewardship and social harmony.

The story of King Prithu in the Bhagavata Purana underscores the principle that prosperity flows from respect for the land and disciplined use of resources. The Ramayana’s account of the Sanjeevani herb reflects an ancient understanding that human health is inseparable from the vitality of nature.

India’s economic thought, too, carries striking relevance. The Arthashastra lays out principles of fair taxation, transparent administration and regulated markets, insisting that state revenues must grow without burdening citizens and that commerce flourishes when trust and infrastructure are strong. These ideas present a civilizational approach to prosperity that is rooted in balance, responsibility and shared well-being.

Taken together, these reflections reaffirm a simple truth: that India’s civilisational wisdom is not merely a legacy of the past but a living source of insight for shaping the future with confidence and purpose. As India aspires to play a defining role in the 21st century, this wisdom offers foundational principles for growth that are resilient yet aspirational, rooted yet modern, equitable yet globally competitive.

It is with this conviction that Bharat Ki Soch firmly believes that India’s growth story must be anchored in its own intellectual and civilisational foundations, even as it engages fully with the modern and dynamic world. An idea from the Upanishads captures this spirit well “Ekam sat, vipra bahudha vadanti”—truth is one, though the wise express it in many ways. The challenges before India may be many and

complex, but the purpose remains singular, that is to ensure that the country’s growth journey remains resilient, inclusive and sustainable, even amid global uncertainty. Drawing strength from the past, acting with purpose in the present and shaping a future with confidence will remain central to India’s journey towards a ‘Viksit Bharat’.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is chairperson, Bharat Ki Soch