Democracy in the Balance

Amid the rapidly changing political developments in Bangladesh, the election tempo is entering a feverish pitch. The picture has emerged a bit clearer now, following the talks held recently between Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman on June 13. It would also appear that both the government and Tarique are flexible enough to converge on the same page in an attempt to arrive at a consensus on the date of the elections. This development overtakes the previous speculations about the uncertainty of the election dates.

Earlier, the meeting between Yunus and Tarique began as scheduled on June 13, 2025. Tarique was accompanied by party leader Amir Khosru and BNP International Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir, in the presence of many party activists who had gathered in front of The Dorchester earlier in the morning, holding banners, placards, and posters in anticipation of the meeting and expressing solidarity with the BNP leadership. Prof. Yunus and Tarique Rahman exchanged pleasantries before the meeting began, with the BNP leader inquiring after the chief adviser’s health and passing along greetings from his mother and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. These were usual exchanges of courtesies and nothing more should be read into them. However, with this meeting, many are assessing that the stalemate over the timing of the next election may finally end.

Meanwhile, the student bodies, which have thrown their complete weight behind Yunus, have welcomed the meeting between the two leaders. The nation waited with bated breath for the outcome of the meeting. According to the Student Bodies and Nagorik Coalition, it seems that the two leaders have agreed to work towards a smooth democratic transition, with agreements on reforms paving the way for a pre-Ramadan election. The Nagorik Coalition—a civil society platform advocating reforms related to citizens' rights and building democratic institutions—has proposed a clear, feasible pathway that can lead to a peaceful, durable democratic transition. A lasting democratic transition requires two things: a high-turnout election and consensus on some critical reforms. They further reckon that election timing is not just a matter of polling date. A set of activities is required for the election process and must begin immediately. They also feel that an ordinance needs to be issued by the end of July this year, allowing those who have turned 18 in 2025 to be enrolled in the voters' roll. The list could be finalised by the end of October. This could pave the way for the announcement of the election schedule in late November, with the election taking place before Ramadan next year.

It is also critical for a democratic transition that the election takes place before Ramadan, not afterwards. It may be recapitulated that Bangladesh has not had a large-scale national election since 2008. It is well understood that the functioning of government machinery, and indeed of society as a whole, changes during the month of fasting. Eid is arguably the biggest celebration for most Bangladeshi families. Furthermore, April is the exam season, and educational institutions play a vital role in the conduct of elections. That the Chief Adviser even floated an election post-Ramadan in 2026, defying these basic social realities, is difficult to fathom. Earlier in August, he had said the timing of elections would be determined by politicians. Most politicians who would actually campaign for election on the ground—as opposed to shouting on social media—are expected to welcome a pre-Ramadan election.

In sum, it is therefore welcome news for the Yunus supporters that if sufficient progress is made on the reform front, a pre-Ramadan election is very much possible. The democratic political parties are not as far apart on critical reforms as one might believe from the daily din of disinformation on social media. For example, there is general agreement on a hundred-member upper house, one hundred female MPs, an election-time non-partisan government, and the strengthening of parliamentary committees and institutions such as the Election Commission. The disagreement is about the mechanisms. An upper house of parliament with members elected in proportion to the votes won by the parties in the general election could, in fact, go a long way towards avoiding the difficulties experienced in the past with caretaker governments or weakening institutions. On the other hand, if the upper house simply reflects the seats won in the lower house—as preferred by the BNP—then the risk is that, over time, its members will resemble the party flunkies that made up Hasina's parliament. Tarique Rahman was the first major politician to propose the upper house. These are largely BNP-inclined assessments.

In the meantime, on its part, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has expressed its reactions over the Tarique-Yunus meeting. Jamaat strongly feels that the meeting and the subsequent media briefing are, as it described, ethically unrealistic. Party Chief Shafiqur Rahman himself presided over the meeting. It may be recalled that Jamaat is now vigorously trying to remain in the political mainstream, as it has come to the political fore after decades, though at the grassroots level, its electoral prospects remain bleak. Shafiqur Rahman has also criticised Yunus for showering praise on a particular political party, implying the BNP. In other words, Jamaat does not seem happy with the political nexus between BNP and Yunus, lest it is politically alienated.

Jamaat, which is quite active on social media, appropriating its grassroots cadres to the fullest for propaganda, will try its best to continue to criticise Yunus and his cohorts to wean away the BNP—apparently to avoid Jamaat adversaries getting stronger in view of the election. At this point in time, however, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the election dates, as things are still fluid and fragile.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal