Bridging the divide

India’s population has reached its demographic prime. While large parts of the world are aging, around 67.3 per cent of our population is between 15-59 years of age, and this demographic advantage of a young working population will persist for at least another three decades. Approximately 26 per cent of the population is below 14 years, and just 7 per cent is above the age of 65, as against ~17 per cent in the US and ~21 per cent in Europe. By 2030, India’s working age population is projected to reach its highest level at 68.9 per cent. The median age of the population will be 28.4 years, with a dependency ratio of only 31.2 per cent. In absolute numbers, India will have 1.04 billion working age persons, constituting the largest workforce in the world.

Our demographic harvest certainly has large numbers but demographic strength does not lie in numbers alone. Large numbers can only translate into dividends through high productivity that drives wealth creation, not just by construction, but by high-tech production and manufacture, innovative information technology, new-age services with high value addition, R&D driven innovation, healthcare and life sciences, to name a few.

But does our demographic dividend have the capacity to enable its own transformational economic advancement on these lines and accelerate the nation’s GDP to reach the USD 7 trillion mark by 2030? Clearly, this capacity can only develop with the right education and skills, which require cognitive power (brain cells) and physical health. Both start developing at foetal stage and continue developing through childhood and adolescence into adulthood, with proper health, nutritional and educational care. Only then can the demographic dividend have the capacity for higher learning, superior skills and qualifications to fit contemporary or futuristic job requirements. We may recall that other Asian nations invested heavily in health, education and skills and reaped full demographic harvests.

Let us take a look at our present demographic dividend, whose foundational stage is mostly over. NFHS 5 (2019-2021) informs that among our present demographic dividend, (15-49 years), only 41 per cent women and 50.2 per cent men have 10 years or more of schooling; 57 per cent women and 25 per cent men are anaemic; and 18.7 per cent women and 16.2 per cent men have Body Mass Index (BMI) below normal. It is not surprising therefore, that despite several skilling programmes being implemented in India, prospective employers are not able to find the right skilled workers, and unemployment rates of ‘educated’ youth remain high.

Now let us turn to our immediate demographic dividend—today’s adolescent girls and boys, 15-19 years of age—who will form a substantial part of India’s workforce for the next three decades. From the little data available about them, NFHS 5 informs us that only 34 per cent girls and 35.9 per cent boys of age 15-24 have completed 12 years or more education; 59 per cent girls and 31 per cent boys of this age group are anaemic, and only 54.9 per cent girls and 52.6 per cent boys have normal Body Mass Index (BMI). These statistics reflect reduced biological development, which could translate to poor learning. The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) (Rural) 2023 national findings certainly corroborate this. Only 77 per cent in the 17-18 years category could read Class 2 textbooks, and 35 per cent could do division. National findings also revealed that the learning trajectory over Grades 5,6,7 and 8 was relatively flat, meaning thereby that the difference in learning levels between all the grades was not very much.

It is these age groups that will feed our demographic dividend for the next 3 decades.

Let us take a look at our future demographic dividend, which will enter the workforce within the next one or two decades – our children. Not a very bright picture either. According to NFHS 5, 35.5 per cent of children below 5 years are stunted, 19.3 per cent are wasted and 32.1 per cent are underweight; and 67.1 per cent children between 6-59 months are anaemic. (Figures for the 2 poorest quintiles are almost 50 per cent higher) NFHS does not give us figures of the percentage of children who are neither stunted, nor wasted, nor underweight. But most shockingly, only 11.3 per cent children aged 6-23 months are receiving minimal adequate diet, an improvement from 9.6 per cent as in NFHS 4 (2015-16). The foundation of our demographic dividend and human capital for the next 3 decades lies here.

Medical science confirms that brains develop fastest before the age of 5 than during any other time in our life, and lay the foundation for the physical, mental, and emotional development in life. According to the Centre on the Developing Child of Harvard University, 90 per cent of a child brain's development happens before the age of 5. Studies have recorded through Magnetic Resonance Imaging the deficient brain development of malnourished children as compared with non-malnourished children. Therefore, the first casualty of the 88.7 per cent children under 2 years not receiving minimal, adequate diet will be their brain development. India’s routine dietary deficit, both macro and micro, among at least 40 per cent of our population among all age groups is well documented in our own national surveys. It is not therefore surprising that the resultant under-nutrition, poor health and morbidity, prevents children and adolescents (our demographic dividend) from achieving their complete cognitive and physical potential, (refer ASER Report) and thereafter prevents them from accessing the best opportunities for education and skills for emerging high value employment. Hence the mismatch between available skills or the capacity to acquire the required skills, and today’s job market.

Undoubtedly, our demographic dividend is deeply divided. At the top are a section of our professionals with the highest qualifications and leadership qualities, who head some of the mightiest corporations and businesses in India and abroad. But here in our own backyards, we have the 2 poorest quintiles of our immediate and future human capital who are not able to achieve their complete cognitive and physical potential and will not rise above subsistence level.

India will start aging with each passing year after 2030. The workforce population will start declining and the ageing population will start increasing. A growing skill-less, asset-less, ageing population in poor health can become India’s greatest future burden.

Let us not be complacent that a large population, with or without skills, will strengthen our economy through high volume consumption. It is more probable that a large population with low skills and education will only increase unemployment, and have little disposable income for high consumption. And let us not bank on the fact that there will be a flight of human capital from weaker sections to foreign lands where secondary labour is becoming scarce, or that they would be contracted as mercenaries in foreign armies.

The time to act is now. We must do a real-time situation analysis of our immediate and future demographic dividend and redesign our policy framework to strengthen our human capital through the life cycle. We must promote higher participation of women in the work force and enable our demographic dividend to capitalise the opportunities that lie ahead, through ensuring a sound foundation of better nutrition, health and education. After all, today’s child and adolescent is tomorrow’s professional, and GDP derived from the demographic dividend is completely commensurate with its health, education, skills and productivity. I am confident that one of the many think tanks of our country will think about this too.

The writer is a retired Secretary to Govt of India (Development of the North Eastern Region). Views expressed are personal