Blood and Water

Blood and water cannot flow together” — this statement made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi way back in 2016, after the Uri attack, foretold the future. India has been quick to hit back at a purportedly Pakistan-backed terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people, by suspending the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). The water distribution agreement signed between both countries and negotiated by the World Bank, was signed on April 1 in 1960. India has often cited the treaty as unfair and overly generous. And yet the treaty survived two wars between the nations and was hailed as a successful case study exemplifying transboundary water management. However, last month’s dastardly terror attack in the picturesque meadows of Baisaran valley presented a perfect opportunity for us to follow the decades-old rhetoric with action.

The crucial Indus Water Treaty is a significant agreement that gave India right to the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) while Pakistan received the western counterparts (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).

Withdrawing from the treaty can have far-reaching ramifications on the region and exacerbate future climate events. Satellite images from unverified sources flooded the internet showing portions of the Chenab River near Sialkot drying up. While turning off the tap is yet to officially show impact on the water level or river flow in Pakistan, uncertainty over the future is undeniable.

By putting the IWT into abeyance, India holds the upper hand in its ability to plug water flow into the lower riparian zone. Pakistan will be starved of hydrological data gathering and sharing, which is key in predicting floods, planning irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water. India will also be under no obligation to share or follow project designs and other technical information with Pakistan.

The Permanent Indus Commission that ensured cooperation and exchange of information between both sides also remains suspended in the current scenario. Past disputes wherein Pakistan had raised an issue over Indian hydro projects, alleging lowering of water flow and flouting of IWT, had so far been peacefully resolved. With India receding from the IWT, it now also scuttles the three-tier dispute resolution mechanism of the Permanent Indus Commission, followed by a Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank, and finally, the Court of Arbitration for more complicated matters.

About 80 per cent of Pakistan’s agriculture, almost one-third of its hydropower, and 25 per cent of its GDP (gross domestic product) rely on the Indus Water basin. The likely effect on farmers across the border will be unfortunate but flood threats on the Indian side looms large too. Controlling the flow of water can be a powerful tool to devastate the Pakistani region with floods or dry it up for want of water. While Pakistan is likely to feel the impact during the dry season, experts believe that holding back water during high-flow times is currently unattainable. As yet, India does not have the infrastructure in place to completely call the shots. India would need massive storage capacities and an intricate canal system required to reroute the water. Building dams and reservoirs will take time, years even. The threat of rising tensions with Pakistan with the former terming the suspension as an “act of war” adds to the precariousness of the situation. India can flush silt without prior warning to Pakistan, thereby, causing damage. Weaponising water to devastate the region becomes a possibility under what’s termed as a “water bomb”, wherein the upstream country cuts off the water supply only to unleash suddenly causing colossal destruction.

As per international law, an upper riparian is forbidden from stopping water flow into the lower riparian. If IWT continues to remain suspended, we also lose the bargaining chip with China, which controls the Brahmaputra river and could turn the screws on us. The Brahmaputra river originates in Tibet making it the upstream country. In 2016, when India warned that terrorism and water cooperation can’t co-exist, China retaliated by blocking the tributary of the Yarlung Tsangpo that acquires the nomenclature of the Brahmaputra in northeast India. Our blow hot, blow cold relationship with China, including its frequent overreach on our borders and continued economic competition, will pose a constant threat. China and Pakistan are allies and long-term partners. India’s suspension of the IWT provides China the most opportune excuse to up the ante against India, with the latter being bereft of diplomatic defence on international platforms.

For many years now, India has been pushing for a review of the treaty citing changing water requirements for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower. We formally asked for review in September 2024. India now has reason to build infrastructure in the region without being curtailed by the diktats of the treaty. Unfortunately, building excessive hydrological infrastructure can also destabilise the region increasing the threat of climate change. The best case scenario of the ongoing abeyance would be a modified, more equitable and sustainable treaty that is climate proof and holds the interests of the region as well the downstream regions that the waters feed.

The writer is an author  and media entrepreneur. Views expressed are personal